Former Vice President Abubakar Atiku clinched the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP presidential primary ticket on Sunday. In this report, Moshood Adewale examines his chances.
For both the ruling All Progressives Congress, (APC), and the opposition Peoples Democratic Party, (PDP), last weekend was one of the longest held breath for one obvious reason: the two parties waited anxiously for who would emerge the Presidential candidate of the PDP which convention held in Port Harcourt on Saturday. The outcome would determine the nature of the battle that lay ahead for the two Nigeria’s most outstanding parties.
Nigeria, Africa’s biggest country faces another Presidential election early next year, four years after the ruling party that had been in power for more than a decade and half was removed through a sting operation that involved a coalition of several political interests.
Nigeria is home to some 170 million people who live barely on less than one dollar a day in spite of huge resources from oil sourced from the nation’s troubled delta region. Some 78 million voters are expected to go to the poll in Nigeria’s national elections in the coming year amidst various challenges ranging from Islamic fundamentalism, loss of jobs, rising inflation and the flame of corruption that has refused to subside.
Sources claimed the APC leaders were as curious as the PDP. “All night, the Presidency was monitoring the primary election to know who would eventually come into the ring to wrestle power with President Mohammadu Buhari,” an aide in the Presidency told Newdawn.
In the results released in the early hours of Sunday, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar scored 1,532 out of 3,221 votes which comes to 50 percent of the total votes. He was trailed by Aminu Tambuwal, 693 and Olusola Saraki, 317.
Atiku, 73, clinched the biggest opportunity for him to achieve what appears to be one of his most significant life ambitions which began in 1992, when he contested the primary under the Social Democratic Party, (SDP) which the late Chief M.K.O Abiola won.
He was slated to be the Vice President but the pendulum later shifted to Alhaji Babagana Gingibe. Atiku again was on the verge of contesting for the President in 2003 but was dissuaded by Northern elite who thought former President Olusegun Obasanjo should be given a second chance in spite of the overwhelming support Atiku received from the then serving PDP governors.
Last week’s PDP primary has stirred fresh debates about the 2019 Presidential election and the prospect of the APC retaining or losing control.
“This is a watershed and a momentous occasion for the PDP and indeed the nation. More importantly in the race was the transparent, free, fair and credible and peaceful process”, an elated Deputy Senate President, Ekweremadu said in a statement signed by his media aide, Uche Anichukwu describing Atiku as the ‘next President of the country.”
In a counter move, Buhari’s Personal Assistant on social media, Lauretta Onochie mocked Atiku in her tweets. She said “Alhaji Atiku Abubakar outspends Saraki, Tambuwal and others, wins the PDP presidential ticket for 2019. Congratulations You have outspent the rest. You have a new toy. But believe it, it is only a dream. Bearing in mind that you can’t go to America to represent us at the United Nations, (UN), nor meet with Nigerians in America, our job is made easy.”
Lagos lawyer, Festus Keyamu who is the spokesperson for Buhari’s campaign organisation threw another jab at Atiku saying the Port Harcourt election was marred by vote buying and criminalization of the voters.
He said Nigerians would also note with interests the verdict of Atiku’s former boss (Former President Olusegun Obasanjo) when he was Vice President on his credibility and integrity, calling him unprintable names at different occasions. Nigerians would note that in all of these occasions, Atiku Abubakar had never defended these allegations against him by his former boss, but continues to court his support and cooperation.”
Beyond the fisticuffs of salvos, Atiku’s emergence has thrown up fresh challenges. The big question remains: will Atiku be able to displace Buhari’s government that rose to power on the euphoria of populism which appears to be waning with the passage of time.
Atiku is believed to have a wide network which he had oiled since the 1990s. The group began as Peoples Democratic Movement, (PDM) led by the late General Musa Yar Adua, notorious for its mastery of politics driven by cash. In the primary election contested by the late Yar Adua in 1991, he was like a bulldozer winning overwhelmingly across the country in what was widely known to be a contest for money and large scale bribery. There were allegations that the same method was adopted in Port Harcourt with speculations that delegates were paid up to 9,000 dollars each.
However, the reality now is that Atiku will face Buhari as the main contender for the throne. For one thing, for a country that is dominated by ethnicity and tribalism, the 2019 Presidential election is likely to reduce the primordial content. Atiku is Fulani, jettisoning the potential of post-election acrimony driven by ethnic divides. Perhaps it is the first time since 1999, when two candidates of the same ethnic group would contest for the Presidential election as the best frontliners.
Many believe his joining the APC in the first place was motivated by his burning desire to run the Presidential race.
A close source told our correspondent revealed that Atiku’s group joined the APC with the assumption that Buhari would go for only one term. His failing health was also considered as one factor that would help prop up a new candidate within the APC of which Atiku was a key contender. “Atiku had the advantage of leaving the APC on time which gave room for him to have a head start compared with his allies”, one of Atiku’s aide told Newdawn today. Atiku was one of the earliest politicians to quit the APC citing exclusion. Observers have been wondering what would be the magic of Atiku and the PDP.
From indications, Atiku is likely to drumbeat his campaign with the melodies of restructuring, wealth creation and security. Significantly, restructuring is very popular in the South and in the Middle Belt which is where Atiku is expected to pick his running mate. In a chat with Newdawn on Monday, leader of a new group, Yoruba Self Determination Advancement Forum, (YOSEDAF), Mr Kunle Adesokan said many groups in the South West are disillusioned by the failure of the APC to restructure the country after four years. He said “We are going to engage Yoruba people from Lagos to Delta and Kwara to ensure the victory of Atiku on the strength of restructuring.”
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Last week the group placed ads in The Punch Newspapers calling on South West delegates to support Atiku. The PDP may also exploit the South-East and South South votes to maximum advantage. The two regions have been unfaithful to the central government alleging marginalisation. There are strong indications that Atiku might actually pick his VP from the South East or South South.
He is also expected to flirt with the Christian votes in the Middle Belt exploiting to the brim the current faith-based killings which have pitched Christians and Muslims against each other. However, the emergence of Atiku will not alter the dominion of Buhari, Keyamo said. Buhari’s coordinator in Lagos State, Mr Hamzat Bade told Newdawn that Atiku will be defeated by Buhari. He said the former VP has credibility problems arising from graft in the Halliburton scandal linked to him. “He is using restructuring as bait. He is going to be another bad President. We know all he did as VP”, Bade said. But this is not given. Buhari also has inroads to the Christian community through his VP, a Pastor. He also appears to retain his charm grip on the North West where more than 18 million voters are registered.
Former President Chief Olusegun Obasanjo’s comment on his Vice:
Chief Olusegun Obasanjo @Chief_Obasanjo God knows I have nothing against Atiku but It’s patriotic I inform Nigerians that in June 2006, we got a letter from America, listing a number of people to be investigated and Atiku was one of them. From 2006 till now, I still don’t know why he cannot visit America. Do you?
Watch clip below:
There are suggestions that certain factors might determine where the core North voters might go chief of which is the health of President Buhari. “If Buhari’s health fails, the Northern voters might swing towards Atiku. They won’t want to see power slide away to the VP, a southerner”, an official of the Arewa Consultative Forum, (ACF) told Newdawn on phone.
It is also believed that some Northern voters will support Atiku with the hope that his emergence will give the North a fresh opportunity to rule the country for eight years.
From precedence, Atiku’s emergence might mean the APC needs to buckle up especially when bribe stains and moral high ground seem not to matter any longer in Nigeria’s elections judging from the recent occurrences in Ekiti and Osun States where money played a crucial part. Observers think as the incumbent, Buhari and the APC with about 24 states in their kitty, control of state machinery including security apparatus, are better strategically placed to win the Presidential elections. There are also those traumatised by the economic ruin and the brazen corruption that characterized PDP’s government for 16 years.
But this is only if all variables remain the same. At it is, given the balance of strength, the Presidential election remains dicey as either of the two leading contenders appears strong enough to hold the aces.
