On September 22, Osun people will go to the poll to pick a new governor after 8 years of All Progressives Party, (APC) grip. In this features, Moshood Adewale examines the trends and odds ahead of a battle that promises to be fierce
After the 2007 pitched battles that eventually in 2010 crumbled the Peoples Democratic Party, (PDP) in Osun State, the ruling All Progressives Congress, (APC) is expected to face another major contest on September 22 when over 30 aspirants will scramble in the ring for a belt whose winner is difficult to predict.
The APC has been holding the state of 3.3million people in firm grip for eight years, the longest feat by any political party in the series since 1999 when Nigeria returned to democratic rule. About 38 aspirants will wrestle for just one position of the Governor of the state at the end of this month. Of the 93 political parties, the race in Osun zero into four main contenders.
The PDP candidate, Senator Ademola Adeleke has been boasting that his party will breast the tape. He relies on regional solidarity, being from Osun West Senatorial District said not to have produced a governor since 1999.
“Our victory is certain. I will be the next governor of Osun” Adeleke whose political career has been embellished by the heritage of his late senior brother, Isiaka told party faithful on Sunday at his Ede country home. In a similar vein, former Deputy Governor of the state and a serial aspirant, Senator Iyiola Omisore said on August 26 that his own party, the Social Democratic Party, (SDP) was ready to occupy the seat based on his “acceptability” by the people of the state. He took a bold step by launching his campaign at Ilesa, the homestead of the State Governor, Ogbeni Rauf Adesoji Aregbesola.
“Our victory is certain. The SDP will win”, Omisore told a crowd of SDP supporters in Ilesa, an ancient city in the state after his visit to the Owa Obokun of Ijeshaland, Oba Aromolaran. Omisore will be contesting for the governor of the state for the third time. Another major aspirant in the state, Alhaji Moshood Adeoti of the Action Democratic Party, (ADP) said his victory in September was “assured” by the tempo of affection he commands in the state.
““When finally elected, ADP, as a party of true democrats, would prioritise people’s welfare and also make party members the main channels of getting to the grassroots”, Adeoti said.
The ruling APC picked Mr Gboyega Oyetola in a direct primary that has factionalised a once cohesive front. Oyetola is from Iragbiji in Osun Central. Adeoti, a former Chairman of the APC left the party following the bitter feud that characterized the primary.
The election offers interesting dynamics. While Omisore left the PDP for the SDP leaving the party fractured, Adeoti had defected from the APC leaving behind simmering hostilities. Even the PDP candidate was in APC until he left the party after his nomination failed as a Senatorial candidate in a bye election that trailed his brother’s sudden death.
Adeoti’s group is said to have won over many APC supporters charmed by his influence while in APC. The ADP claimed over 6000 APC supporters including ward executives had decamped to the ADP, a brag the APC described as red herring.
“The APC is the party to beat. We are sure of victory. All steps are being taken to ensure APC wins a landslide victory”, Sola Adewunmi one of the campaign strategists of Oyetola told our correspondent.
From emerging trends, it appears each of the main contenders, the PDP, SDP, ADP and APC has its own strength and weaknesses. For instance Omisore relies on his experience as a former contestant and Senator who represented Osun East. He also boasts of a network of supporters beyond Osun that may fuel his finances. Adeoti hangs on the advantage of his Senatorial district whose residents appear anxious, if not desperate, to produce the next Osun Govenor. But within the womb of this prowess also lay the potential seed of self destruction. Observers think Adeoti’s exploitation of bloc solidarity may infact fuel resentment from the other two Senatorial districts who see his intra-tribal-driven campaign as parochial and self-serving. “He is not going to be the governor of Osun West. We want a Governor propelled by the interests of Osun people irrespective of where they came from” Ogunade Ayodeji a member of SDP in the State told our correspondent in a chat. Adeoti is also expected to face the huge task of building a winnable structure within the shortest time possible. The ADP has no effective structure and remains relatively unknown among locals.
Sources said Adeoti’s group had based his defection on the ground that he would reap from the APC crisis at the national level. For instance, the Senate President, Dr Bukola Abubakar Saraki was said to have been one of his key supporters backed by former military dictator, Ibrahim Babangida and other renegade APC chieftains even in Lagos including but not limited to Dr Muiz Banire and Foud Oki, two less significant, but vocal and more acrimonious individuals whose actions have continuously created a false sense of division within the APC. “His initial calculation was to source funds from Saraki and his group”, one source told our correspondent.
It is uncertain how Saraki’s current dilemma will affect the expected financial fortunes of the ADP. A source close to the ADP camp claimed that the party is ‘arid’ and yet to receive any major grant. At present, Saraki has left for the PDP leaving come ADP supporters confused. There are also speculations that some APC chieftains, the Governor of Ondo State, Rotimi Akeredolu is on the same page with the ADP in Osun. This claim cannot be independently verified by our correspondent. But there are confirmed reports that between Akeredolu and Aregbesola is a love lost. The name of former Governor of Lagos State, Babatunde Fasola has also featured as a potential ally of Adeoti. This also has not been confirmed. Our correspondent heard that the current isolation of Saraki and the sudden onslaught on the former Director of State Security Services, Lawal Daura who was said to be working for a faction of the APC represented by Saraki may have dealt a blow to the intrigues hatched by the ADP camp.
“We do not know how some people think they can viciously oppose APC in Osun and claim they are for President Buhari at the centre. This is nothing but treachery”, a top member of the APC in Lagos who does not wish to be named told our correspondent referring to what he describes as double dealing by some APC leaders in Lagos and Osun.
Apart from contending with the cobweb of intrigues built around the ADP’s motive, the party also faces the clash of values with the PDP whose candidate is also from Osun West. Some observers think since both the PDP and ADP candidates are from the West, there is the possibility that both will share the votes with PDP probably maintaining a greater advantage over the ADP.
The APC is not without hurdles. The party has lost some of its finest cadres. The ruling party owes workers, running into months. The party is facing big problems at the national level with an upswing against the unsatisfactory economic performances of President Mohammadu Buhari. However, some analysts contend that even in the face of obvious flaws, the APC in Osun appears to hold the aces. For instance, though the party owes it workers, the contenders have not come forward with solutions to address the problems beyond rhetoric.
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Many believe that both Adeleke and Omisore are products of the PDP which was largely responsible for the economic and cultural meltdown in the country after 17 inglorious years. “Osun people have rejected Omisore twice, there is nothing that has happened that will change that position. It will even get worse since he is now in a relatively unknown party” one traditional ruler told our reporter. Another member of the ADP point to what he described as Omisore’s “cross” , referring to his complicity in the murder of the country’s former Minister of Justice, Chief Bola Ige. Many also think Adeoti lacks the moral credentials to criticize the APC leadership if the non-payment of workers’ salary should count in the campaign since he was the Secretary to the State Government, (SSG) until few months ago.
Aregbesola is also said to command respect among rural people where his Rural Agricultural programme, (RAMP) is most felt. He is said to have shown good leadership qualities without living extravagant lives beyond the economic means of the State. The General Secretary, Nigerian Automobile Technicians Association, Mr David Ajetunmobi told our correspondent that eventhough Aregbesola owes workers salary, the people of Osun appreciate that it is not his fault. He said the state had only taken more projects without anticipating the decline in revenue occasioned by the global oil slide.
“He remains a hero of many local folks”, a top civil servant who does not wish to be name said. He swore that the APC victory will be “swift and decisive.” There are speculations that President Mohammadu Buhari and the APC leadership may intervene to ensure the party’s renegades, including those in ADP are brought back into the fold.
The Presidency is said to be worried that any victory other than that of APC in Osun will be counter productive.
Inspite of the shortcomings of the APC, some locals who spoke to our correspondent point to what they consider as the strength of character of the Governor, Aregbesola, his piety, his achievements in the areas of roads, infrastructure, education, health and rural development as indicators that Oyetola can successfully cruise to victory under the wings of his boss.
