…Statistically South Africa Should Win!
The Nigerian Government is taking the AFCON semifinal clash against South Africa beyond the duel at the Bouake stadium on Wednesday as the crystal balls of the Nigerian President according to impeccable source is not seeing victory clearly for the Super Eagles of Nigeria.
The source informed Patmos Media Line Sports that President Tinubu and his contingent including leading Yoruba and Igbo leaders may hit Abidjan to mobilize Nigerians to move to Bouake for the semifinal against South Africa on Wednesday. Unlike Peter Obi who joined the mobilization against Angola in Abidjan staying with the masses at the ‘popular stands’, President Tinubu accompanied by a Talking Drummer and a trumpet will be at the VIP stand which normally CAF protocols does not support.
Although we could not verify this information with his Spokesman as at Publication time, it was learnt that President Tinubu wants to use the occasion to show Nigeria’s superiority over South Africa beyond socioeconomic and political issues as the source reminded us that Nigeria spent Billions of Dollars to liberate South Africa from apartheid stronghold.
Football rivalry between the two nations is at a crescendo since 1996 when South Africa used the great Madibo as the pull vault pole to spring into African football but Nigeria snatching 6 wins from 11 matches, South Africa got 1 win and there were 4 draws.
Let’s list some of the games.
They played 0-0 at an AFCON game on 11th September 2004; played 2-2 in AFCON qualifier on 19th November 2004; played another 1-1 draw in a friendly on 29th May 2015; South Africa won the AFCON qualifier match of 10th June 2017 by 2-0 in Calabar; drew 1-1 in the 2nd leg played 17th November 2018 in Jo’Borg; and in their last meeting at AFCON quarterfinals at the Cairo International Stadium, Egypt on 10th June 2019 Nigeria got a 2-1 victory.
Chukwueze and Troost-Ekong supplied the Nigerian goals while Zungu scored for South Africa in the match officiated by Ref Redouane Jiyed of Morocco.
South Africa lost to Mali 0-2; bashed Namibia 4-0 and played goalless with Tunisia at group stages of the present tournament; humbled Africa’s number one ranked team, Morocco 2-0 in the Round of 16 and in a high performance penalty shootout ousted the Blue Sharks of Cape Verde 2-1 after the fulltime was goalless in the quarterfinals.
She scored 6 goals and conceded 2 goals having 4 clean sheets out of 5 matches.
Nigeria played 1-1 with Equatorial Guinea; beat hosts Cote D’Ivore by a lone goal; also beat Guinea Bissau by a lone goal at the group stages; sent the Cameroonian Lions into their garden in Yaounde 2-0 in the Round of 16 and then piped the mouthy Antelopes of Angola by a lone goal to get to the semifinal. She scored 6 goals and conceded only a goal scored by Equatorial Guinea and like South Africa had 4 clean sheets out of 5 matches.
That ordinarily without binoculars is to tell you the game in preview will be dicey hence the fears of Nigeria’s Presidency.
Patmos Media Line took pains to look at the stats whether there could be a pointer to possible winner from there and it should go to South Africa.
Table below is a total of five matches played each at AFCON 23. SOUTH AFRICA VERSUS NIGERIA STATS TABLE.
Indices SAf NGR
Shots. 56. 62
on Target 25. 16
Possession246.222
Passes 2093 1592
Fouls. 75. 89
Yellow. 6. 8
Red. 0. 0
Offside.10. 16
Corners 20. 17
Table Source: ICT Unit of Patmos Media Line.
The interpretation of the table above is that Nigeria fire shots that may be dangerous in penalty areas with the 62-56 shots but shots on target means South Africans are more clinical at goal.
The South Africans could dominate the game as they have better ball control and passes which are ingredients of victory but that may not be relevant when you remember the Shooting Stars of Ibadan and Enugu Rangers both known on the continent in the days of Segun Odegbami and Christian Chukwu when Shooting Stars will do the playing and Rangers will do the scoring with their rough tackles.
Football is all about scoring and just a goal to nothing can move the team forward which is the pattern with Nigeria at AFCON 23 but ace Sports Commentator, late Earnest Okonkwo said goals galvanize support and many goals bring faithful supporters without heartache.
Still on the stats, Nigeria plays more physical football in the foul calls especially with the rugged defenders marshaled by Troost Ekong, Aina, and even sturdy Omeruo but should watch out for cards as already there are 8-6 yellow cards against Nigeria though there is no red card for anybody in the two teams. The Corner kicks of 20-17 show that South Africa may be craftier in putting the Nigerians under pressure. Set pieces may win the match and South Africa seems not to be good at conversion of corners to goals. Nigerians especially Osimhen are good scoring with headers like Mutiu Adepoju known as HeadMaster.
Nigeria never plated Extra time game or penalty shootouts.
Stats or no stats, the victory of a team depends largely on taking their chances, good composure, not being selfish and praying for divine support.
The era of Board Room soccer that teams get victory because their Association member is on CAF Board is gone as Refs performances are open though there are some errors.
There are two fundamental things that Nigeria should care about. The South Africans know Nigeria’s goalkeeper, Stanley Bobo Nwabali well for he plies his trade with Chippa United FC of South Africa. Nwabali had been with Enyimba of Aba; Lobi Stars of Markurdi and Katsina United before going to South Africa. He is one of the many Port Harcourt Goalkeepers like Peter Jaja known as Peter Rufai (Dodo Mayana); David Ngodigha; Pastor Idah Peterside who also was in South Africa and now a cleric in South Africa. Peterside and this writer served in Plateau State in the same September Batch of the mid 80s and he was goalkeeper for both Plateau NYSC and National NYSC from where he was on call to the Super Eagles.
A vital point to note is that almost all the South African Players are home based and eight of the 27 players are from Mamelodi Sundowns and that is why the Bayana Bayana team has cohesion and great team spirit just like in those days when the bulk of the Green Eagles of Nigeria were from Rangers of Enugu and Shooting Stars of Ibadan.
Above all these views presented, Nigeria must and repeat must end the match clearly within regular time as going into penalty shootout will not help especially with the talented Williams of Mamelodi Sundowns in goal who saved 4 out of 5 penalty kicks in a match. That’s awesome.
If you ask me, I see the words of Segun Odegbami prevailing from many years on the beat that Nigeria will defeat South Africa and lift the cup. The jinx of Nigeria’s dominance over South Africa has not been broken despite some flashy acts by the South Africans. This match will not go into Extra time. Nigeria means business!
President Tinibu to mobilise support for Super Eagles
Nigeria ranked 42 in the world and 6th in Africa is making her 26th appearance at AFCON. She is three times champion with some impressive podium finish. She got Bronze at Ethiopia 76 beating Egypt 3-2; bagged another Bronze in Ghana 78 beating Tunisia 2-0; won in Lagos at 1980 beating Algeria 3-0; got the Silver in three consecutive competitions – Ivory Coast 1984 losing to Cameroon 3-1, at Morocco 88 losing again to Cameroon 0-1 and Algeria 90 losing to Algeria by a lone goal.
Nigeria got Bronze at Senegal 92 beating rivals Cameroon 2-1; became champions at Tunisia 94 with a 2-1 win over Zambia; again lost to Cameroon when Nigeria/Ghana hosted in 2000 via 4-3 penalty shootouts after 2-2 scores to bag the Silver; Got the Bronze with a lone goal victory over Mali at Mali 2002; back to Tunisia in 2004 Nigeria won Bronze with a lone goal victory over Senegal; at Egypt 2006 Nigeria again beat Senegal 1-0 to win the Bronze; in 2010 at Angola Nigeria beat Algeria by a lone goal to win Bronze; she came back at South Africa 2013 under Stephen Keshi to win the trophy beating the Stallions of Burkina Faso by a lone goal scored by Sunday Mba and in 2019 she got the Bronze at Egypt in a lone goal victory over Tunisia. Please note that only podium finish records are presented concerning Nigeria.
South Africa ranked 66 in the world and 12th in Africa is making her 12th appearance at AFCON. In 1996 South Africa hosted and won 2-0 over Tunisia; she won Silver in 1998 at Burkina Faso losing to Egypt 0-2; South Africa won the Bronze at the Nigeria/Ghana hosting of 2000 beating Tunisia on penalties 4-3 after 2-2 at full time and South Africa hosted in 2013 failing to win a medal.
Super Eagles of Nigeria
The Semifinal matches are Nigeria versus South Africa on Wednesday at 6pm and Ivory Coast versus DR Congo same Wednesday at 9pm.
The Third place match for losers at the semifinals is on Saturday at 9pm while the grand finale is scheduled for Sunday at 9pm.
Eniola Olatunji reporting for Patmos Media Line.
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