Frankly Speaking : Tinubu,Obi and northern nigeria religion trap

By Tunde Abatan, tunde2013abatan@gmail.com,08165660217

Since the return to civilian rule in 1999 ,both the Northern ruling political elite and it’s Southern counterpart has never been in such a trap as it is experiencing now courtesy of the struggle for Power.

The struggle for who controls the political leadership of Nigeria as an entity is as old as Nigeria and it is what has shaped the nature of previous and forthcoming elections. Frankly Speaking 2023:Atiku,Tinubu,Obi, others:The battles ahead

Contrary to what obtains in other civilized democracies,election is War by other means in Nigeria and the politicians across the North and Southern divide are responsible for making it a War by their do or die habit.

It is War because, politics since the past few decades, is seen as means of survival and not as a means of service which our founding fathers represented in -spite of their different ideologies.

Now,in the past three weeks after the emergence of Presidential candidates of the two dominant political parties,the People’s Democratic Party,PDP and All Progressive Party,APC and the emerging,Labour Party,LP, the choice of running mate has pushed the country to a stalemate.

The stalemate is basically on how to satisfy the unwritten convention of religious balancing especially as it concerns the North,with it’s predominant Islamic faith and the liberal South which combines the two major faiths,Islam and Christainity.

While the South is liberal about it’s two dominant faiths,the contrary is the North which sees non- moslems among it as not Northern enough to represent it’s political interests.
Besides,even Moslem from some parts like the Middle Belt as seen as not devout and Islamic enough to be trusted.

Since Power is the dominant industry among the North’s political elite,Islam is the bridge on which it has maintained a tenous hold on power.

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This is irrespective of whether the power it has wielded since 1960 has benefited it’s citizenry who are growing poorer by the day .

Yes,lack of education and the slavish mentality of it’s voting poor populace has helped the North’s political elite use it to maintain hold on power and by extension rule the rest of the country.

Though, Peter Obi,now presidential candidate of the Labour Party has since jumped ship from the PDP because of Abubakar Atikus deep pocket and ‘dollar power’ which gave him the ticket, the fear of rejection by the North’s voting populace which mindset is conditioned to trust only genuine Northern moslems also remains a factor of Obis decamping to Labour.

Now Obi has picked the LP ticket but he also has to pick a Northern Northerner in the mould of a Moslem since he cannot be seen as a serious candidate unless he does this.

Today,Obis problem is same as the late Chief Obafemi Awolowo had in 1979 to have a running mate from the North. He has to choose Phillip Umeadi,a lawyer from South east as his running mate.
His choice is seen as unwise seen he cannot isolate the North with it’s numerical strength from leadership.

Between then and now,no Northerner wants to be a running mate to a Southerner.
The only exception was the Olusegun Obasanjos candidature.
Since he was the candidate of the military and Northern political establishment, the voting masses was mobilised for him.

If Awo could not cross that bridge in 1979, how would Obi cross it in 2023 -a period when religion has divided Nigeria more than it was in 1960?

Now,two weeks into Obis dilly- dally alliance talks with Rabiu Kawkwansos New Nigerian People’s Party,NNPP, the talks is yet to crystalise.

Same difficulty in a Northerner accepting to be running mate as it fears an Igbo candidate may not sell in the Kwakwansos fanatic Kano stronghold.

So what Obi ran away from in PDP,a variant and important part of it he met in NNPP.

Who among Kwakwanso and Obi will break the ice?

In compliance to Independent National Electoral Commission,INEC,Obi coined the ‘place holder’political acronym and submitted Doyin Okupe,a Yoruba , name as his running mate .

Obviously,this is to buy time to conclude negotiation with NNPP or any pliant Northerner who will accept vice President position…the clock ticks.

Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubus emergence in APC has also created a source of worry for Northern religious hegemonists in APC who also feels a Christian Northerner is not Northern enough to attract voters among it’s poor and slavish Talakawas.

As for them, only a Moslem- Moslem ticket is acceptable to the North.

In propagating this strange doctrine,they are either oblivious or pretensious of the horrible experience which an average Southerner has passed through under Muhammadu Buhari whose provinciality and Islamisation of key government organs and positions have angered the South especially the South West where Tinubu came from.

It is true that religion has no place in politics of the South West which expect more in governance dividends than religious piety of their leaders.

But, could they also overlook the banditry,killings, kidnappings and marginalization they have been subjected to under the watch of a leader over who they broke rank with Goodluck Jonathan in 2015 to put in power.

Could the Yoruba South West forget in a hurry,the treatment meted out to farmers by marauding Fulani herdsmen from other parts of Africa,who were dispossesed of their land under the watch of Buhari they ignorantly voted into power?

It is clear as crystal ball to them that the later represent a tribe that has no value for human life?

Perhaps, Tinubu wouldn’t have had problem if what obtained in 1993 when the late Moshood Abiola chosed a Northern Moslem as his running mate obtains today.
Same thing applies to Igbos who overlooked the anormaly and voted the ticket.

Today to the North’s ruling political elite,Tinubu is by inference not Moslem enough to be trusted except he pick a fully Northernised Northern Moslem as a running mate.

In desperation, Tinubu has also picked a’place holder’ in Kabir Masari from Buharis Katsina to meet INEC deadline.

For now,Tinubus biggest headache is pacifying his Southern brethren whose block vote is needed to counter Kwakwansos hold on Kano and Atikus North east followership.

In all this, the fault lines over the country appears more pronounced as a part of the country beliefs it is by religious adherence that the nations comatose economy, high end insecurity which has gained unparalleled height in it’s history and the near collapse of education and epidemy of unemployment could be solved.

For a region that boasts of fifteen million out of school children,’ Almajiris’ and it’s being acclaimed poverty capital of the world to insist on having it’s way on leadership means our nation is lost.

It also reinforce the clamour for Restructuring based on Regional autonomy as practiced before the 1963 Republican constitution was abrogated by military fiat.

To the military led by General Thomas Aguiyi Ironsi who abrogated the provinces and the 1963 constitution, lies the blame for our parlous state of affairs which only a renegotiation of the shewed federalism can resolve.