Frankly Speaking 2023:Atiku,Tinubu,Obi, others:The battles ahead

By Tunde Abatan, tunde2013abatan@gmail.com 08165660217

With the conclusion of the party’s primaries and emergence of their presidential candidates ,it is interesting that the leading personalities who emerged in the two leading parties, the All Progressives Congress,APC and People’s Democratic Parties,PDP, are quite familiar with each other.

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Familiar in the sense that the duo of ,a former vice President Abubakar Atiku, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu,a former Lagos state governor, are both political associates and bed partners at one point or the other since the past 23 years of this republic.

Having belonged to same political parties at one point or the other,the electorate are being presented with different sides of the same coin.

With the exception of Mr Peter Obi, who jumped into the Labour Party,LP, ostensibly to avoid the ‘dollar’ competition which shaped the People’s Democratic Party,PDP, primaries, the party on which platform he ran as running mate to Atiku in 2019 election,not much difference exist between the trio.

While Obi could claim public acclaim from the way he ran his Anambra state where he was governor for eight years,yet his departure to Labour party is ostensibly to avoid playing second fiddle to Atiku and also achieve his ambition of ruling the country.

Though,it is easy to argue that Obi might be following the ‘directive’ of Igbo political group, Ohaneze that no politician of Igbo extraction should accept to play second fiddle, but target the number one job, yet Obi knows that except miracle happens and membership and structure of Labour party becomes bigger,he has a long distance to run with the two bigger and dominant parties,the APC and PDP with deep pockets.

Yet,considering the public acclaim of his decision and his increasing popularity which has translated to the comatose Labour Party still feeling in internal contradiction and polarisation, Obi still stand a chance of giving himself and the party a relative bigger exposure and chance to give APC and PDP a run for their money and tough battle in 2023.

Considering Ndigbo quest for the Presidency since 2019 and the increasing popularity Obi had attained, he may give the two bigger and more structured parties a bigger headache in voter endorsement.

As he said in an interview recently, his strength in the race lies not in his deep pocket-which is not comparable to the duo of Atiku and Tinubu, but in the increasing support from the youths and general populace all over the country.

Nevertheless,his support base remains the South East part of the country and by extension Ndigbos all over and general public all over the country who feel his acclaimed prudency in running Anambra is what is needed to turn Nigeria arround.

But by far the biggest threat Obi represents is the tendency to use his candidature as a return to ethnic politics along the path which the second republic ran between 1979 and 1983 .

As I pointed out in my column peltumate week,the candidature of Atiku and Tinubu from recent events may ignite the North- South political dichotomy especially since both the duo and Obi are now seen largely as representing three major tribes in Nigeria and their attendant claim to office in 2023.

While Atiku represents North’s resolve to retain power, Tinubu is seen largely as South West answer to remove Fulani domination over the past seven years, apart from Tinubus claim -it is my turn to rule, meaning ’emilokan’, self entitlement motive.

Tinubus ambition coincided with Yoruba South West collective entitlement having helped conservative North to hold power for eight years in one breadth and resolve to get Nigeria Restructured in view of the lopsided and provincial way in which Muhammadu Buhari has ran the country.

Though,majority of the elite in the South West may not be excited about Tinubus emergence in preference to Vice President Yemi Osinbajo ,seen as more saintly, yet the growing acceptability of Tinubu is anchored on the ‘make do with what you have sense meaning in Yoruba,”Bi a ko ba ri Adan,a fi onse se Ebo’ attitude.

For majority of Yoruba especially the populace, the growing insecurity in south west;persecution of self determination groups clamouring for secession led by exiled Professor Banji Akintoye and militant Sunday Adeyemo aka Igboho, the candidature of Tinubu may be a saner route to enable them move closer to their goal considering a likely change in open disdain for and persecution of the agitators through instrument of state coercion..the military,security agencies and Police.

Tinubus presidency may also enable them reconsider their strategy to self- determination in a civilized way.

As for the core North political ruling elite, Atikus emergence to replace Buhari is seen as a move to retain the privileges the region has attained under the lopsided nature and Buharis misrule which is a complete mismanagement of Nigerias diversity.

This is the reason why for Tinubu to forge ahead, picking a Moslem running mate from the North may anger not a few in the south West region and by extension the South considering the way and manner Buharis regime has used preference for moslems of Fulani extraction to dominate key positions in government and the thrust of his public policies.

But one thing which is important and major determinant of the outcome of next year’s election is the extensive use of money through which both Atiku and Tinubu emerged in their respective parties.

With the increasing poverty in the country,this is possible.

Never,has the nation witnessed such display and use of money to induce delegates from all over the country to defeat their various contestants in their parties .
It is apparent that the system have narrowed the choice of public office holders presented to Nigerians.

By extension, Atiku and Tinubus deep pocket has altered to a high extent the choice of the electorate.

As candidates of two major parties, dominance of money politics has deepened Nigerias problem and reduce the emergence of competency in governance in all the parties as the electorate is presented with choosing between the devil and deep blue sea.

Should Obis Labour party,the fledgling Social Democratic Party,SDP, African Democratic Party and possibly Kwakwansos New Nigeria People’s Party,NNPP and Kola Abiolas, People’s Redemption Party,PRP able to galvanize the populace on the need to consider alternative change to the two dominant parties, then the country may have a new narrative and real change in governance.

Except this is done,the scenario of the second Republic when Alhaji Shehu Shagari,Chief Obafemi Awolowo and Dr Nnamdi Azikwe acceptance among their regional blocks dominated and shaped the election may repeat itself.

This may present bigger challenges for Nigerias cohesiveness especially with the various self- determination groups like IPOB,Ilana Odua and others which potency and acceptability is increasing and growing in the South.