Frankly Speaking: APC special Presidential Convention:The choices and tasks before Buhari

When the 2340 or more delegates(depending on court ruling) from all over the country gather in Abuja,the nations capital on Monday June 6,their mission is to perform what will perhaps be the most delicate job ever handled by the party leadership. Owo killings:Scheme to deradicalise terrorists not working – CAN

That job is to conduct the process of selecting among the 13 aspirants, the one who will fly the party’s flag in next year’s presidential election.

Having belong to a party that has ruled the country for seven years after defeating then incumbent,President Goodluck Jonathan of the People’s Democratic Party,the onus falls on President Muhammadu Buhari to lead the party. And leadership he must provide to keep the party together after the presidential primaries.
Buhari has in his hands the task of proving sceptics wrong that the party will go under after his tenure.

Ordinarily, as the ruling party, the job is not supposed to be difficult but it is because the contention on who to pick has in the last few months divided the party along different shades of opinion. It has brought with it different tendencies which has been pulling the party in different directions in spite of it’s been in government.

These divisions are reflective of the different tendencies and camps in the ruling party.

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The four tendencies and camps in the APC are; the preference of President Muhammadu Buhari,who has left no one in doubt as to his interest in choosing his successor.

Yet, another interest is how to resolve the contentious issue of power rotation between the North and South.
On account of this some egg -heads in the party ostensibly from the North,who felt that rotation of Presidency should be jettisoned are waxing stronger by the day .

Most of those who felt so and are working towards this, are symphatisers of Hausa- Fulani ruling hegemony who fear that allowing power to go to the South means dispossessing them of their born- to- rule mentality and the spoils of office which they have enjoyed over the years. They are struggling tooth and nail to make the party jettison it using their questionable power of numbers.

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The third force are people from the South East,the Igbos, who believe it is their turn to take the Presidential slot.
They are right because since 1999 when the country returns to democracy,they are yet to have a taste of it through one of their own.
The snag is whether they could get their people to vote the APC which is not the traditional party of their choice except Imo state.

Yet another tendency, is the South West, which believe there is a working agreement that subsists before the region supported Buhari to make the difference in voting In 2015 and help him to power. It is instructive that before then the SW have never had anything to do with alliance with core North’s reactionary politics. Many now argued that that pact has burnt their fingers in view of events in governance in the past seven years.

With Senator Adamu,the party chairman who got to office through a ‘coup’ against Tinubus man Friday,Adams Oshiomole,threatening to punish Tinubu for last Thursday tirade on Buhari, the party has a long way to mend fences with it’s presidential primaries.
This is instructive with Tinubu being one of the front runners.

As a serious contender in the South West region Tinubu who is often referred to as the National Leader in view of his role in clubbing the divergent groups together in 2014 to form the APC, has his stakes in whatever happens between Monday and Tuesday.
For Tinubu,as he has often declared ,his presidential ambition, is a life long ambition.

Tinubus ambition since it became public knowledge, has ruffled not a few feathers.
His life long ambition has raised the stakes higher especially between him and fellow politicians in the party in the South West, who he beliefs through actions and pronouncements, are not supposed to show face but to concede to him.
As their godfather Tinubu beliefs their entrance is a stab in the back.
This has raised a serious though not legal but questionable moral issue among his close followers who beliefs he holds the key to political aspirations in South West.
Events after this year’s primary will put in proper perspective this claim.

In spite of this self- entitlement claim,the sophisticated nature of Yoruba politics, has seen six others from his region showed interest and obtained the expression of interest form.

It is on without doubt that he has rode like a god in this past twenty years ‘removing’ and sponsoring governors both through the party apparatik and the courts.

Thus, Buhari, who has declared his decision to hand over to an anointed successor is faced with outsmarting three power groups and tendencies in the party to pick his successor.

It is incontestable that his choice on Monday will either make or mar the party depending on how he manouvers his ways as a sitting President.

Indeed, far than anything else, Tinubus sense of entitlement will be Buharis toughest job as the former believes it is pay back time for him having helped Buhari to emerge in 2015.

Buhari will have to use all the tactics,strategies and resources to curtail Tinubu, who by far appears to be the strongest challenge to Buharis unknown choice apparently different from the national leader.

With the determination and declaration of Tinubu to ‘fight dirty’ and probably ‘spoil’ the platform, Buhari will have to use all his skills to prevent the party from going -under, under his watch.

The far – reaching implication of this is that should Tinubu decide to ‘rock the boat’ if he is not picked, then Buhari has enough job to do both in the North- his home base who may be persuaded to move with Abubakar Atiku, in ensuring the cohesiveness of followership of APC in the South West where Tinubu reigned as kingmaker.

Hence, Tinubu from whatever way you look at it, remains a factor in victory or defeat.

As Ralph Waldo Emerson said,”the problem of victory is more than defeat”.

Hence,Buhari has enough job to do to sell and ensure his candidate wins and seen to have won convincighly either through consensus or whatever option the party chose.
Thus, after the primaries, Buhari will start with rein in, the eleven other contestants especially those from the North like Senate President Ahmed Lawan ,a late entrance into the race who is being propelled by another strong cabal in the party from the North who detest Tinubu and Osinbajos candidacy.

Buharis job will also not be complete until he rein- in his uncle /cousin, Mamman Daura,erstwhile security adviser cum confidant who is known to be opposed to Buharis decision to look towards South West for his successor.

Impecabble sources revealed the hands of Daura in the emergence of former President Goodluck Jonathan,who is being used to unsettle Vice President Yemi Osinbajo- his ‘foe’ who sacked him in 2013 when he used the military to raid the National assembly during Buharis absence due to illness.

Whatever choices he made among the thirteen aspirants, Buhari will have to find a way of placating those who have paid either through their cronies or sponsors,the princely One hundred million naira nomination fee since it all appeared some of them did so for the bargaining for stakes in the future government not necessarily because they knew they can win.

Buhari will also have to rein- in anti democratic forces in the polity who are aggrieved and looking for ways to truncate democracy especially with the evident instability in the ruling party amid the desperation of it’s leading lights who have formed themselves into power blocks fighting for relevance.

But most important, whatever choice he made on Monday, Buhari has to ensure deepening of democratic ethos and principles within the party as they are ingredients needed to stabilize the polity.

These are indeed big challenges for a President whose tenure has witnessed heightened insecurity and an economy which has taken a nose dive with attendant effect on the socio economic life of the citizenry.