What began as an internal crisis in the All Progressives Congress, (APC) took a new turn last week when the State Governor, Senator Ibikunle Amosun said his supporters will work against the ruling party in Ogun State. Moshood Adeoye reports
Ogun State Governor, Senator Ibikunle Amosun took a daring step on Monday promising that he would work against his own party in the gubernatorial election slated for February 2019. The state had been thrown into turmoil after a controversial primary that produced Prince Dapo Abiodun as the state APC gubernatorial candidate. The APC National Working Committee ratified the primary, the State APC chapter led by Chief Derin Adebiyi rejected the outcome of the primary, ostensibly at the prompting of Amosun.
In a dramatic move, 26 supporters of Amosun left the APC for the little known Allied Peoples Movement, (APM).
Amosun said “When these people came, they told me they were leaving the APC, I said ‘no’ but I couldn’t stop them. In fact, Akinlade has my full support. I am not going to stop him. Everything I have, I will use to support him, let them try whatever they want to try, we also have our strategies and I am not going to hide behind one finger.”
Observers have been wondering why Amosun who came to power on the wings of the APC would prompt his supporters to decamp to the APM, yet he retains the APC Senatorial ticket for Ogun Central while at the same time claiming he would support President Buhari’s re-election bid.
“Amosun is making the situation worse. He is too difficult to please”, Mr Israel Sobade, a local official of APC in Ogun State told Newdawn on Thursday.
He said it was a ‘huge contradiction’ for Amosu to retain the APC ticket and insist he would work against the party in the state.
Amosun had said with an air of confidence “ I remain in the APC because that’s what those people want. They want us to leave the APC but they are joking. I will stay in the APC to ensure that President Mohammadu Buhari wins in Ogun State and I am not going to hide behind one finger.”
He said further “Every day, I will campaign for President Mohammadu Buhari, we will do everything possible to ensure Buhari wins massively in Ogun State, but they should not miss it. I, Senator Ibikunle Amosun will not support Dapo Abiodun they are bringing. Why would a reasonable person with less than 10 percent lord it over the majority? It can’t happen. They know there was only one primary and that have called me today that, and we have done everything possible to right the wrong, but they are already destroying the party.”
Observers think many deductions are certain from his new drift: Amosun will use everything in his power, including state machinery to ensure the defeat of his own party, at least at the gubernatorial election. He will also likely ensure that elected members of the Ogun State House are members of the APM if he is uncertain the APC candidates will support him.
At the same time, he will work to ensure his own victory at the Senatorial level, creating a broader level of confusion and political contradictions in the state. There are also concerns about what will be the attitude of Amosun to the other APC candidates in the state apart from the Gubernatorial candidate he hopes to oppose? Will he oppose the other National Assembly contestants? Will he oppose the APM Presidential candidate as he promised while at the same time supporting the same APM candidate in Ogun State?
“Amosun has left many people confused about his real intention. He appears to be desperate to impose his protégé in Ogun. He wants to do this at all cost. It’s all about covering his past,” one APC State official in Ogun State who does not wish to be named told Newdawn on Wednesday. He said Amosun has no respect for organizational discipline describing him as “sly, treacherous and light-hearted.”
According to him, the internal contradictions in the APC would not have allowed any candidate produced by Amosun to win any primary. “We were all waiting for him. The only way he could have had his way was to impose a candidate. He was opposed to direct and indirect primary in the state.”
The National Working Committee led by Mohammad Ndabawa had conducted the primary which Amosun disputed. While the national body announced that Abiodun scored 102,305 votes to beat his closest rival, Jimi Lawal who polled 51, 153 won the race, the state Chapter of the APC at the prompting of Amosun said on the other hand that Adekunle Akinlade won the votes.
Akinlade was the Yewa consensus candidate being prompted by Amosun. On Wednesday, the APC National Chairman, Adams Oshiomhole fired at Amosun urging him to learn how to respect institutions. Oshiomhole said the APC would win without the support of Amosun and his group.
Oshiomhole said “Whether you are a big or small man, the rules are not supposed to discriminate. Our popularity in Imo and Ogun today is much higher. It is not that once you are a governor you have high electoral value.”
It is unclear how the new power play will affect the outcome of the gubernatorial election in Ogun State. Amosu had hinged his support for Akinlade on the basis that it was the turn of Yelwa to produce the next Ogun State Governor. Since the creation of the state in 1976, the Yewa had battled to produce the governor but have failed mostly due to their inability to present a common front. In 1979, the same scenario played out when the Yewa produced many candidates including the left politician, Tunji Otegbeye.
Since 1999, Yewa has made spirited efforts without success. But some observers argue that Amosun is merely exploiting the artificial division for political gains adding that the people of Ogun State should not be defined in terms of geographical location but rather seen as one people with common ancestry, shared history and destiny.
In reality, winning election in Ogun where about 2 million voters are registered goes beyond sentiments fueled by sub-ethnic cards since the Yewa itself can only at all times produce about 25 percent of the entire votes meaning that for the Yewa to win convincingly, it needs the overwhelming support of either the Ijebu/Remo or the Ogun Central votes whereas, a candidate from either Center or East is at a greater advantage given a large number of votes in the areas.
In the 2015 election, Abeokuta North and South produced the highest single city-state number of votes totaling 309,446 votes. This is almost twice of the entire number of votes coming from Yelwa.
Thought observers think this may not necessarily represent the votes of indigenes alone since the zone harbours the state capital, however, it is believed that the preponderance of voters is Egba indigenes. Though Amosun hopes to mobilise his Egba Senatorial district for Akinlade, it is not given, he also has to contend with political heavyweights from the Egba axis including but not limited to former Governor Segun Osoba whose son has been picked as the APC House of Representative’s aspirant in the district.
Besides, his performance on infrastructural development of Ifo local government we high today is littered with many uncompleted road projects after demolishing many houses without payment of compensation is likely to work against him.
Boundary areas of the state like Akute, Agbado, Alagbole have been subjected to untold hardships as a result of poor infrastructural development which may count against him considering the huge voting population in these areas.
While Amosun’s strength should not be underestimated, observers think it will be a mistake to overate his influence. “He contested for the Governorship election and didn’t win until he joined the APC. He also has not used his office to build a political bloc given his tight-fisted attitude and his penchant for vengeance”, one of his former aides told Newdawn predicting that the developments in Ogun State may eventually eclipse Amosun’s political career.
