Ambode, Lagos

Lagos 2019: Ambode, others walk the blade edges

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A whirlwind is blowing in Lagos. This time, it might take along hitherto entrenched interests. The cloud of uncertainties over Lagos Governor Akinwumi Ambode’s political future became clearer midweek when two prominent All Progressives Congress, (APC) members, Dr Obafemi Hamzat and Jide Sanwoolu threw their hats into the ring once occupied by a lone contender. The two are active figures in the APC. Hamzat was a former commissioner in Lagos.
Since the entrance of the two, obviously at the prompting of godfathers, the roaring in Ambode’s camp seems to have been subdued.
Our correspondent, who visited the Alausa secretariat on Tuesday, saw workers discussing the new developments in subdued tones. A huge atmosphere of trembling hung in the air. One official joked that in the past few days, Ambode has lost about 5 kilograms in weight. The social media is abuzz with a razzmatazz of sting stories listing the achievements of the Ambode administration.
On Wednesday morning, the Lagos Chief Press Secretary, Mr Habib Haruna launched a massive media campaign listing the achievements of Ambode in the past three and half years. While such media hypes are routine, the new tempo of the build-ups and its coincidence have raised the specter of suspicions that they may have been motivated by the fresh challenges facing the Lagos Governor.
“It’s now clear the Lagos APC ticket is contentious. We are not sure of who will win. Certainly, Ambode will no longer have an easy ride”, a member of the APC in Lagos, Martins Adeleke told our correspondent.
Few weeks ago, that Ambode may not be returned by the party leaders began as a mere wish of detractors, soon it became a speculation and now it appears it is getting close to being a possibility.
Before now, there have been what many observers consider as a kind of shadow boxing between Ambode and the dominant trend in the APC. For instance during the last local Government election, Ambode was said to have unilaterally selected the 57 chairmen prompting widespread outrage. The party leaders had to intervene to douse the fire. A source close to the party told our reporter that it was the first ‘tactless move’ that raises the eyebrows of Ambode’s benefactors.
Ambode is also believed to have cut the powers of his commissioners with each of them limited to capacity to approve not more than 100,000 naira in one month.
Ambode who emerged from the oblivion in 2015 went ahead to beat the Peoples Democratic Party, (PDP) candidate, Mr Musiliu Obanikoro to breast the tape as the Lagos Governor in a tough election characterized by highbrow threats and intimidation by the then Federal Government controlled by the PDP. The FG desperately wanted to seize Lagos but failed.
It is believed that Ambode’s victory was largely influenced by the former Governor of the State, Asiwaju Tinubu noted for his mastery of the Lagos war chess game which he has dominated and controlled since his triumphant entry in 1999.
There are followers of Tinubu who consider Ambode as an ingrate. “Ambode was not known by anyone. He was brought on the stage by Asiwaju Tinubu. He would not have won if not for the influence Asiwaju has on the politics of Lagos”, Adeleye Akintola, leader of Asiwaju Grassroots Organisation told our correspondent.
It is not as if the Lagos Governor has not performed. Since Ambode came into power, he has oiled the economy of the state raising revenue to an all time high; he tackled roads especially in rural Lagos while modernizing the bus terminus. One of his most outstanding achievements remains the Lagos Trust Fund where 26 billions were expected to be ploughed into private hands in four years to boost local economy and job creation. Since inception, the Trust fund has disbursed billions of cash to young and old entrepreneurs in Lagos.
He also built the first forensic laboratory being the most efficient lab in Nigeria. He has also been credited for bringing innovation into security.
However, Ambode has also been accused of being a vindictive and self-centred figure driven by egocentrism and infantile populism. Some also accuse him of promoting the principle of isolation an effort that party stalwarts think has pushed them to the thrash bin of irrelevance.
His relationship with party members, his critics say, has been driven by tokenism. Some also accuse him of running a ring of loyalists who implement most of the contracts in Lagos without resort to party interests.
Ambode, some critics argue is not in the good book of the workforce, the civil servants that equally represent a major fulcrum.
But some of his supporters said he is a victim of witch hunting and scapegoatism.
One of his aides who does not wish to be name accused Asiwaju Tinubu of “plotting to impose his loyalists at all times and for selfish reasons.” However, Adeleye said such accusations against Tinubu are misplaced.
He said politics go beyond godfatherism. He argued that for a political figure to succeed, since party politics is about interests, the contending blocs must be recognized and honoured. He said often times, political figures emerge only to destroy the same ladder that took them to the top.
IN Nigeria, elections are usually determined by various interests. Analysts contend that he who understands the interests and address the fears and aspirations need not fear a million battles. Some of the identifiable interests in Lagos are the voters, party leaders at local and state levels, fund raisers who sponsored the campaign, market-propelled associations, the media, the powerful Lagos indigene lobby group, the Pan Yoruba nationalist groups and the human rights community. Some believe that Ambode has failed to meet the critical interests not even halfway. It is often worse for any leader to undermine any of them. Ambode has also been accused of building subterranean groups within the party which many consider as an outright strategy to build an alternative party structure which he might rely on incase his dominion within the APC comes under attacks
Many observers have been holding on to a statement credited to Mr James Odunbaku, an ally of Lagos most dominant political figure, Asiwaju Ahmed Tinubu.
He was reported to have said that “Sanwoolu is the incoming governor of Lagos State” in apparent reference to the belief that APC victory in Lagos is immutable.
As at press time, the main literary lion in the forest, Tinubu is yet to roar, at least not openly, though many have been (mis)interpreting his body language.
Now the big question: If APC did not pick Ambode, will he leave the party? If he leaves the party will he be able to create enough ripples within? Can he win the general election without the APC?
A close ally of Ambode told our correspondent that his work in Lagos will see him through. He said “He is the man to beat. The voters will compensate him for his good work.”
This week, the PDP introduced a new player into the game, Mr Femi Otedola, a billionaire oil magnate was reported to have been slated for the gubernatorial slot. For one thing, if Otedola emerges the PDP candidate, it will bring certain consequences: Otedola who is from Epe, the same constituency with Ambode will certainly divide Ambode’s home base assuming the APC picks Ambode. Again, there is an associated myth. The name Otedola in Yoruba means “my victory comes forth from cracks within my enemy camp.” Femi’s father Michael faced a similar fate when in 1991 he won Lagos gubernatorial elections under the platform of the National Republican Convention, (NRC)- that he was destined to lose save the internal wrangling within the favourite Social Democratic Party, (SDP) whose candidates led by Dapo Sarumi and Prof Agbalajobi were at each other’s throats leading to sharp divisions and eventual defeat of the SDP.

Read also: Why Femi Otedola joined Lagos guber race

But the context of 1991 and 2019 may be similar but not the same. The actors and the social milieu are also different.
For instance the APC has been in power since 1999 maintaining iron grip on the politics and spirit of the entire state, unlike in 1991 when the two candidates and the two political parties were tenderfoots. In 1991, the dominant force was Alhaji Lateef Jakande today, it is Tinubu. The two are different in political temperament while the zeal and fury of battle are different. One is like a bulldozer with an overwhelming and compelling force; the other like an old horse who wages battles using conservative tactics. There are suggestions that former Lagos Governor, Babatunde Fashola has reconciled with Tinubu, creating a stronger opposition to Ambode if he dares bare his fangs.
“Otedola scenario cannot repeat itself in Lagos. Ambode will be brought down like an overripe fruit if the APC does not field him” a top APC member who does not wish to be named told our correspondent. He said the forces against Ambode are ‘enormous’ and that it boils down to his veiled “treachery and acrimonious” manners. He said since he assumed the office, he has been behaving like a once poverty-stricken child who suddenly finds himself in affluence and then allows the lucre of office to stain and blindfold him. Ambode is also unpopular among the Yoruba self-determination groups many of who see him as “pompous and aloft.”
Most people believe if the APC drops Ambode and presents another candidate, considering the balance of interests and forces, the APC will most likely still win the election after all, they argue, Ambode was nobody when he was brought into the game. Ambode also suffers the misfortune of lacking control of any party structure and the reality that building a new structure between now and the next election is akin to an elephant passing through the needle’s eye.
However, inspite of the drumbeats of war within the APC, some analysts think the prospect of resolving the simmering the crisis cannot be ruled out.

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