Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat…. Sun Tsu
In the first part of this analysis, we examined how Nigeria’s diversification of military partnerships and its bold move towards BRICS represent a fundamental shift that a returning Trump administration would view as a direct challenge. These actions strike at the heart of American strategic influence.
Now, we delve into two more visceral and politically charged reasons why Nigeria would find itself in the crosshairs of a Trump White House. These issues are less about grand strategy and more about direct defiance of core Trumpian policies and a perceived insult to his deal-making ego.
Reason 3: The Deportation Standoff: A Direct Affront to “America First” Immigration Policy
If there was a cornerstone of Donald Trump’s first term, it was his hardline stance on immigration. He framed it not just as a domestic issue, but as a test of national sovereignty and a fight against what he often characterized as unfair practices by other countries. For no fault of her own, Nigeria found itself squarely in the middle of this fight.
The Visa Sanctions Threat: In early 2020, the Trump administration announced a dramatic policy: countries that refused to accept their deportees from the United States would face severe visa sanctions. Nigeria was prominently placed on a list of “recalcitrant” nations. The message was simple and brutal: take back your citizens, or your diplomats, officials, and citizens will be barred from obtaining visas to the U.S.
A Clash of Sovereignties: For Nigeria, the issue was not simply one of refusal but often involved complex legal and diplomatic procedures regarding the identification of individuals. However, from Trump’s perspective, this was black-and-white defiance. Nigeria’s initial reluctance was seen as an act of disrespect for U.S. law and a failure to cooperate on a matter he considered critical to American security.
Why Trump Would Be Furious: For a leader who built his brand on being a “tough negotiator,” Nigeria’s stance would be perceived as a direct challenge to his authority. It became a public relations battle that he was determined to win. A second-term Trump would not have forgotten this standoff. He would likely view any future hesitation from Nigeria through the lens of this previous defiance, potentially leading to immediate and punitive measures to force compliance, framing it as “making Nigeria back down.”
Reason 4: The “Bad Deal”: Energy Partnerships and the Snub of American LNG
Beyond immigration, another core tenet of Trump’s foreign policy was “energy dominance” and the promotion of American fossil fuels on the global market. He saw energy exports as a tool of economic and geopolitical power.
Nigeria’s actions in this arena would be seen as a direct snub, both economically and diplomatically.
Nigeria’s Pivot Away from U.S. LNG: While the U.S. has become a global leader in liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, Nigeria—Africa’s largest gas reserve holder—has been actively pursuing partnerships that sidestep American companies. The most glaring example is the massive $25 billion Nigeria-Morocco Gas Pipeline project, a strategic initiative championed by Tinubu, which is intended to traverse multiple African nations and feed the European market.
Choosing the “Rival”: Furthermore, Nigeria’s critical Ajaokuta Steel Mill revival and other key infrastructure projects have seen deep involvement from Russian and Chinese state-owned enterprises. In Trump’s worldview, every major energy or infrastructure contract awarded to a Russian or Chinese firm is not just a business loss for America, but a strategic victory for a rival. It reinforces his narrative that allies are taking advantage of the U.S. while making deals with its adversaries.
Why Trump Would Be Furious: This touches a raw nerve. Trump consistently railed against allies he believed were not sharing the burden of defense spending or were making unfair trade deals. For Nigeria—a major non-NATO ally recipient of some U.S. military aid—to then award multi-billion dollar energy and infrastructure contracts to geopolitical competitors like Russia and China would be seen as the ultimate betrayal. He would frame it as Nigeria preferring to do business with America’s enemies, a narrative he would use to justify a more punitive and transactional.
Taken together, these four reasons paint a clear and combustible picture. The defense schism and the BRICS pivot represent a strategic realignment that undermines American global influence. The deportation standoff and the energy snub represent a direct and personal defiance of Trump’s key domestic and economic policies.
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For a leader like Donald Trump, who views international relations through the lens of personal deals and public wins, Nigeria under Tinubu is not just a partner drifting away; it is a nation actively challenging his agenda on multiple fronts. A second Trump term would not be about quiet diplomacy to win Nigeria back, but about applying maximum pressure to force a recalcitrant nation back into line. The firing line is not just a possibility; for these reasons, it is a near certainty.
I have no doubt that Trump is angry with Tinubu, his indefatigable team and Nigeria in general. It has nothing to do with the persecution of Christians based on tons of evidence and Ribadu’s submission on the subject. Rather, it is about Tinubu’s ascendancy as a Statesman and Nigeria’s, not Africa’s leading leader. It is about’ a friend of my enemy is my enemy’. More importantly, it is about a bruised ego.
A man came into the position of power and in 36 months, strategized and literally stabilized the economy by dint of hard and smart work and a legion of able teammates.
Nigeria’s gross foreign exchange reserves reached approximately $43.15 billion as of October 2025. This marks the highest level since 2019 and a significant recovery from earlier in 2025 when reserves fluctuated between $37 billion and $39 billion.
In terms of position and adequacy. the current reserve level is considered a strong position, providing an *import cover of approximately 10 months, which significantly exceeds the internationally recommended benchmark of three months. This robust position enhances the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) capacity to manage liquidity, stabilize the Naira, and protect against external economic shocks.
The recent surge in reserves has been attributed to increased foreign exchange inflows, improved crude oil production and export earnings, higher remittances, and strategic CBN policies such as the tightening of forex access for certain imports.
Nigeria. Are these not the drivers of growth?
For those on Twitter or X abroad and at home, let me remind them that “watery excrement is an aberration in one’s father door step”. And for those who are wishing on seeing invasion of Nigeria by the US Army, let me also remind them about the saying of Sun Tsu in the Art of War: “Tactics without strategy is noise before defeat”. Trump and his maga team are not strategists, and judged by their recent miscalculations, errors and thoughtlessness even in their own home affairs, they will fail utterly, if they dare to invade Nigeria. That is a given. Please know that you can’t stop a good man’s advances.
