*Tinubu’s Second Year:*
*The risk of a wrong decision is preferable to the terror of indecision* Maimonides
As President Bola Ahmed Tinubu crosses his second year in office, Nigerians are measuring reality against expectations.
From roads and refineries to rule of law and rising inflation, Tinubu’s “Renewed Hope” agenda has come face to face with Nigeria’s layered crises.
Together, let’s do a grounded assessment of his administration’s progress—based on facts, performance, and public perception.
*Infrastructure:*
Foundations or Frustrations?
Nigeria’s infrastructure gap is as glaring as ever. While some continuity in major projects such as the Lagos-Calabar Coastal Road and Abuja-Kano Expressway is commendable, these have not yet translated into better mobility for millions.
Indeed while road network is great, moving a group of people to their destination by rickety-picketty contraptions is still a challenge!
The housing initiative under the Renewed Hope Cities and Estates project, though ambitious, has seen slow in rollout.
According to reliable sources and even the Ministry’s data, fewer than 10% of the proposed units for the pilot phase have been completed as of Q2 2024.
As long as any government at any level cannot provide housing for the people, it means laborers, bricklayers, tiler, carpenters and other artisans will be bereft of good income throughout the life of the government.
So also material manufacturing and sawmills will not have contracts and may downsize or bankrupt.
Power remains unreliable. Despite possessing the capacity for 12,000 megawatts, national grid delivery averages just 3,500–4,000 MW. The Electricity Act, signed into law to allow states to generate and distribute their own power, could prove transformative—but its effects are yet to be felt by the average Nigerian.
*Security:* A Mixed Scorecard
Tinubu inherited a fraught security landscape. Terrorism in the North East, banditry in the North West, agitation in the South East and kidnapping in the Southwest. While the military has recorded several tactical victories, Nigeria remains far from secure.
Data from SBM Intelligence reveals over 3,600 lives were lost to violent incidents between May 2023 and April 2024. The Nigeria Police Force continues to face personnel shortages. We have about 370,000 Police officers serving a population of 220 million and over 30% of the 370,000 men and women are serving as security guards for politicians, business owners and even dubious “rich men” in the society.
While government claims successes in degrading Boko Haram and raiding bandit camps, rural communities still live under threat, and kidnapping for ransom continues to rise. A national security reset that emphasizes intelligence, community policing, and technology remains urgent.
*Revenue & Economy:*
Tough Calls, Uneven Pain
One of the most controversial but bold decisions of Tinubu’s first year was the immediate removal of fuel subsidies.
The move reportedly saves the country ₦1 trillion monthly, but it triggered a surge in transportation costs, food prices, and general inflation, leaving many households reeling.
Worsted is the increased allocation to the State Governments who are not able to show much for what they collect from the Revenue Mobilization.
On the upside, government revenue has improved.
The Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) posted a record ₦12.4 trillion in revenue for 2023, its highest ever. Customs also saw increased income due to automation.
Encouragingly, the mining sector, once hidden or overlooked is being repositioned as a key revenue stream.
The solid minerals sector generated over ₦250 billion in 2023, doubling its 2022 output, thanks to increased regulation and investor confidence in lithium and gold reserves.
Yet, Nigeria’s economy remains constrained by high debt servicing, an unstable exchange rate, and limited industrial output.
*Refineries:* Revival Underway, But Still on the Tarmac
A critical test for Tinubu’s economic reforms lies in the oil sector. The Port Harcourt refinery was partially reactivated in late 2023 after years of inactivity, but it’s yet to operate at full capacity. Promises of local refining reducing Nigeria’s over $10 billion annual fuel import bill are still pending real-world results. Privately owned Dangote Refinery also began test operations and holds promise. However, pipeline security, pricing frameworks, and operational integration with public refineries remain unresolved issues.
*Democracy and Rule of Law:* Progress or Political Optics?
On democratic governance, the Tinubu administration has walked a tightrope. While institutions like the National Assembly have remained controversially active, no landmark legislation or wholesale constitutional amendment has been achieved.
Instead, the old problems of padding did not abate under the government of Tinubu and even got worse as some ranking members are now multi- billionaires and without shame.
President Tinubu is arm strung in dealing with the problem; chiefly because of his re-election in 2027.
Also, controversies around certain court rulings—particularly in opposition-controlled states—have raised eyebrows.
In Plateau and Kano, legal decisions that overturned widely accepted election results have been criticized as politically tainted. The presidential suspension of Rivers governor by executive order is still being processed by stunned pro democracy activists and the society in general. It is pertinent that the rule of law must be seen to work for everyone, not just those in power.
The administration’s initial tolerance of protest has waned. Clampdowns on dissent, particularly among student groups and activist coalitions, suggest the state still sees opposition as threat—not feedback. This akin to breading Anocracy.
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*Foreign Policy:* Back on the Map, But Still Off-Rhythm
Tinubu has tried to reposition Nigeria on the global stage by reengaging with ECOWAS, attending global investment forums, and hosting diplomatic delegations. His leadership on the Niger Republic coup crisis was firm, though his initial threat of military intervention was later softened.
The administration has hosted UAE, Indian, and EU investors. While these engagements have produced pledges and memoranda, foreign direct investment remains modest due to persistent policy inconsistencies and regulatory uncertainty, trust deficit in the legal system and financial institutions.
*Information Wars:* When Fake News Becomes Real Risk
One modern challenge Tinubu’s team continues to face is the power and peril of social media. Misinformation, ranging from false subsidy claims to doctored presidential footage, has gone viral, often outpacing official narratives.
The government has responded with calls for regulation, but civil society warns against overreach. A transparent, timely, and tech-savvy communication strategy will do more to combat fake news than censorship ever can.
Two years into Tinubu’s presidency, the verdict is not final, but it is forming. There are early signs of reform, particularly in economic restructuring and institutional revitalization. But for most Nigerians, life remains tough: food is expensive, power is unreliable, insecurity persists, and trust in public institutions is fragile and collapsing.
This administration must now prioritize delivery, transparency, and inclusion.
It is sure, speeches alone won’t carry the country. Services will.
The next year could define not just Tinubu’s legacy, but the direction of Nigeria’s democratic and economic future if 2027 elections does not become the singular preoccupation of the president, nay the All Progressive Congress Party ( APC).
As they say, Hope is not a strategy, delivery is and according to Aristotle; *Hope is a waking dream.* The clock is ticking.
