Atiku Abubakar
Since he finally returned to the opposition Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, after the ascension to the Presidency of Muhammadu Buhari in 2017, Atiku Abubakar, a former vice President to President Olusegun Obasanjo between 1999-2007, has remained in the party and dropped the tag of being consistently inconsistent.
He has so far kept to his promise not to straddle between parties as he did in 2007 when he moved from PDP to Action Congress of Nigeria, ACN and back and forth to PDP in 2011,All Progressives Congress,APC in 2013 and finally back to PDP in 2017.
Though he has been shuttling between Dubai,in the United Arab Emirates, UAE, where he made his first home after his electoral defeat in 2019, he has continued to return home from Holiday when it’s time to face another election in the four electoral calendar he offered himself to be President
The series of defeats made him the longest running Presidential aspirant.
Already his record of defeat has surpassed Buhari who only contested four times before he won during the fourth attempt.
If he did contest again in 2027, he would have created a record as a time tested and rugged veteran of Presidential contests since that will be his fifth contest for a position he craved so much.
However, after his declaration in Abuja after last months judgement of the Supreme Court throwing out his petition against Bola Tinubu’s election last February, he has stayed put in Nigeria. Except if he has between last week and yesterday embarked on his traditional ‘Hejira’to his haven in Dubai to cool -off after each election battle.
His journey to Kogi state previous week few days to the governorship election where he campaigned for Dino Melaye, the Cow boy enfant terrible of Kogi politics, in a way demonstrated his determination this time to physically lead the opposition movement as he promised.
Though, Melaye came a distant third to Governor Yahaya Bello and APCs, Adodo, Atiku’s showing of face demonstrated his resolve this time to lead Nigeria’s face of opposition.
His journey to Kogi to mobilise for Melaye may be a demonstration of his call on opposition parties to come together and prevent Tinubus APC from turning Nigeria to a one- party state.
But in today’s Nigeria,laudable as Atikus dream is to prevent his party, the PDP, from sharing the same fate with the defunct All Nigeria Peoples Party,ANPP,-a party turn to shreds by its leading members because of ambition and irreconcilable of its leaders.
Is it now that he realize that there is need to come together and build the party,was the rhetoric question a chieftain of the party asked yours truly last week.
As for the chieftain who chose to remain anonymous, Atiku’s resolve not to forgo his ambition remains PDPs greatest undoing.
I’m spite of this observation, Atiku appears serious this time and should be commended for wanting to take a cue from Tinubu.
Tinubu it was who in 2013, clubbed together disgruntled politicians from PDP and ANPP to dissolve into APC in 2013.
Atiku has to know that personal sacrifice and real hard work berthed by political concession here and there remains only viable way of building a motley crowd of fledgling parties to confront and prevent APC from swallowing smaller parties .
Yes, while it is not wrong to say Atiku has started the race for 2027 early in the day as he may not junket back to Dubai if he meant business,the odds are getting bigger with the loss of his party states and national assemblies election to the APC.
Today,the PDP has lost fifteen seats in the Plateau state house of assembly even as it has lost the governorship in the Tribunal due to its inability to follow due process in selecting her candidates.
If it is unable to retain Plateau,then it means it will have only 12 states governments and 28 seats in the Senate having lost five so far at the Election Petition Tribunals.
So far, APC has 21 states, PDP 12 while Labour, ANPP and APGA has one state each.
For a fact, most of the Governor’s especially from the North are young with eyes on bigger posts and since politics is about interest,it is doubtful if unfolding events in the polity may not sway them away from Atiku to pursue their own political relevance and survival.
Atiku will have to jettison his ambition if the twelve states controlled by PDP has to do his bidding.
It may not be a tough battle for him to get Labour, NNPP..if it retains Kano and APGA which from all indications may not be able to stand alone for long as the lone party of Republican South East people.
This is so, especially with likely pocketing of Independent Peoples of Biafra, IPOB, by both Governor Charles Soludo of Anambra Governor and former Ebonyi Governor, Dave Umahi now Works Minister and other South East leaders who are eager to reintegrate the region to national politics.
Even then, in the South West, Atiku still cannot put all his bet on Oyo state Governor, Seyi Makinde whose continuous romance with APC states in the region after the Presidential election is suspect of a future political game in 2027.
The Rivers issue is also not far from APC capture in view of Wike’s insistence on retaining and controlling his political structure in the state PDP.
It may not be a herculean task for Tinubu’s APC to create an accommodating platform for Wikes supporters in PDP should his face -off with Rivers Governor Fubara continues.
Could Fubara dare Wike and withhold his structure by subtly pushing Wike out of the state PDP.
Next one year will be a testing period for Wike’s continuos popularity in Rivers.
In all this, Atiku will have to stay behind to fund Rivers PDP with Fubara if the party must remain in his grip.
As for the smaller parties..LP, NNPP and APGA, they will all look for bigger umbrella to stand inside else the ruling APC may swallow them ahead of 2027 elections especially with the dangerous game of survival by politicians in the parties.
Worst still is the possible eventual loss of Kano by the NNPPs Kwankwaso to APC.
Except the Supreme court overturns the Court of Appeals decision which sacked Governor Yusuf in Kano and gave victory to Gawuna of APC,the odds against survival of NNPP in Kano may be tougher than imagined.
Since Kano is also the home base of Mohammed Ganduje,easily the first governor to allow his deputy to succeed him, the battle between Ganduje and Kwakwanso for political control of Kano might just have begun.
Since Kano is the state with highest voter turn out in this year and previous elections, Ganduje will spare no effort in giving the state to Tinubu for a second term and also for his own continuous relevance in the party as National Chairman .
Hence,the Supreme Court’s decision is crucial for both Atiku, Kwankwaso and Ganduje.
As for Kwankwaso, it remains the only state left for bargaining with Atiku or any other party in a coalition or merger move.
As for Atiku, getting Kwakwanso to his side is getting back what he has lost in most strategic state in North west .
That is, if the likes of Aminu Tanbuwal, former Governor of Sokoto state who last year stab Nyesome Wike in the back to enable Atiku pick the presidential ticket of PDP is not keen on running for Presidency especially since he is still in the Senate.
As one senior politician remarked, it is instructive that most if not all the politicians in the other parties beside APC,are not original members of PDP or being in the party one time or the other since 1999.
This shows that Atiku may be reigniting the friendship he has had since he has always been with PDP as a founding member in 1998. So in a way,he is at home with PDP,his traditional home base.
Trying to weld and or bring those who have left together is not a bad idea but will ambition and personal interest not stand between them?
That is the riddle Atiku has to solve in his bid to rebuild the once vibrant and ruling party.
At 81 in 2027,will all other things remain equal in the party such that they will step down for Atiku to battle Tinubu once again.
Time will tell.
