By Tunde Abatan
“Tinubus ‘meddlesomeness’ in Niger is akin to a man carrying Elephant on his head and using his led to search for Cricket”
Uneasy lies the head that wears the crown says a sage.
This old saying fits well into the trying times President Bola Ahmed Tinubu,Nigerias sixteen President has found himself this last few weeks.
It is a confirmation of the presumptions from many quarters that like previous leaders,his Honeymoon with Nigerians have ended after two months in Power.
Though,he has achieved much by the far reaching economic and other decisions he has taken, it is clear that they all point to his decision to thread where others feared and failed.
For removing Fuel Subsidy and collapsing parallel foreign exchange market,he pointed to direction of his state policies.
But then, his handling of the aftermath of Fuel subsidy removal and organised Labour led by Nigeria Labour Congress,NLC taking to the streets and invading the premises of National Assembly, is an indication of end to honey moon which started May 29,2023 on assumption of power.
SERAP sues Tinubu over failure to publish spending details of N400bn fuel subsidy savings
Though he is yet to form a Cabinet, Labours action last week when it went to the streets and the screening of his Ministerial nominee are pointers to what lies ahead.
With increasing oil revenue,through triple jump of earnings from Federation account to N1.9trillion, it is joy to the states.
He has also pushed the i.okementation of Cash transfer in form of palliatives to the people to the thirty six states.
In other words,Tinubu has concerned himself only with policies targeted at the different sectors like Roads,Agriculture and Industries.
With over Five hundred billion as grants and investment to the real industrial sector,the implementation of policies which looks good on paper rains Tinubus biggest headache.
However,of much dilemma and headache is the rumblings brought by military coup d’etat in neighbouring Niger Republic where General Abdourahaman Tchiani led soldiers to sack President Mohammed Bazoum from power barely seventeen days after Tinubu became ECOWAS Chairman .
What a time,what a President.
Tinubu has barely finished basking in the euphoria of becoming Nigerias President that he had problems which is to test his resolve to defend democracy.
While established democracies like United States,Britain and France ,Nigeria colonial masters have condemned the coup and wants Economic Community of West African states to push the military back to barrack the way they did in Gambia in when their joint force pushed out Yahayah Jameh and prevent him from being another dictator in the tiny west African country bordered by Senegal and Atlantic ocean.
But the Niger issue is a different ball game.
With a population of 27,300,357 million people,it is the largest country geographically in West Africa.
Ironically,its new military rulers has the backing of Mali and Burkina Faso,two countries struggling to free themselves from stranglehold of France, their colonial masters.
Nigers crisis and conflict of power is complex because of Russias alleged sponsorship of the military putsch for its self interest to hijack France sphere of influence from it’s colonies in West Africa.
Besides, Russia being encouraged by Wagner-its trouble shooting revolutionary wing ,is intent on returning the World to the cold War era.
This is reflected in the face of it’s determination to extend it’s sphere of influence in other parts of Africa.
It is also not impossible that countries like Benin Republic,Senegal and Vote dVoire are being propped up by the West to resist Russias bid to extend it’s sphere of influence in Africa.
Not only that,Russia is interested in Niger, obviously for it’s having the largest deposit of Uranium-a potent raw material for ammunition manufacturing.
Ability to have cheap raw materials to aid manufacturing of War weapons is obviously to aid Russias territorial wars.
The situation in Ukraine is a direct response to Western powers influence in Africa.
Though,Tinubu for now enjoys the West support, the laters pushing of ECOWAS to terminate Nigers new military regime is a catch 22 situation for him in view of his latent struggling for consolidation of his power.
Tinubus problem is easily compounded by Mali and Burkina Faso,two west African countries intent on breaking age long colonial ties with France in the reality of new World order.
In spite of support by Ivory Coast,Benin and Senegal, Nigeria may not find military action in Niger a walk over.
Yes,it did similar thing in Liberia and Gambia,Nigerias precarious economic situation is far different from 1991 and 2017 when it’s 135,000 strong soldiers called the shot in ECOMOG-then a much more cohesive regional body than what it is now.
Tinubu, also has to contend with larger Fulani population in Nigerias North West which have openly declared that war against Niger in form of military invasion is enmity with it since Fulanis in Niger are its brethren and kinsmen.
The nations upper legislative Chamber,the Senate which has more Northerners has also equally mobilised public opinion against military invasion being pushed by US,France and Britain.
This is in spite of ECOWAS commissioning of it’s countrys military commanders to explore military option in firm of an invasion.
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Tinubus dillema is also compounded by the government desire to complete the moribound Ajaokuta Steel complex, which is as old as Nigeria but which international conspiracy by companies from the West has stalled it’s completion coupled with lack of focus by successive governments.
In this project,the Tinubu government is already in talks with Russian companies with promises to assist Nigeria.
Furthermore,Nigerias domestic issues awaiting Tinubus magic wand is akin to a man carrying an elephant on his head and using his leg to search for cricket.
While it is through that Nigers military take over is of strategic political interest to West Africa for the threat it represent to political stability of the regions governments.
Hence, galvanizing strong home support in the face of her economic straits compounded by removal of fuel subsidy,mounting domestic and foreign debts,mass poverty and discontent in the land are enough reasons for Tinubu to concentrate on building a cohesive and united domestic front than expending the gains of the removal of oil subsidy on a war which obviously has no end.
Yes,it is economically expedient for Nigeria to cultivate new business partners in the emergent world order,such should not be done by compromising domestic cohesiveness, moreso when many elements in the Northern parts of the country seems to be at home with their kiths and kin in Niger .
Immediate past President, Muhammadu Buhari,who has kept mute since the Niger power play reached its head.
He never left anyone in doubt about his affinity with his kiths and kin in Niger.
The fact has to be pointed out that Russia by its emerging nature, is poised to make Africa battle ground for a resurgence of Cold War.
It is intent in reinventing a bi-polar struggle for sphere of influence between it and the Western world led by United States,Britain and France.
The later is already under serious threat of economic independence from it’s former colonies.
For now,the best option left for Tinubu is to reallign the member states of ECOWAS to adopt other strategies towards engaging the military junta in Niger especially, if it is proved that they are much more concerned about economic and political independence which will set it on the path of real development.
Tinubu should realise that in the task of rebuilding Nigeria, he cannot afford to be distracted from implementing outlined development policies and programmes as contained in his last state of the nation address and to fulfil his campaign promises.
Therein lies his social contract with Nigerians.
Charity for now has to begin from home irrespective of the need to protect the strategic interests of the country vis a vis with relationship with her neighbours.
