Boko Haram seemed to be going through continuous degradation as it’s defeat in the Sambisa Forest by the military has been remarkable. Although the media did not fully sang the praises of the combined work by the security agencies, the “insurgent-army” known as Boko Haram suffered a series of devastating blows in the hand of the Nigeria Army and other agencies. Meanwhile, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has set up what a source close to the presidency described to me as a “panoramic security strategy” which takes into account Macro, Micro and Nano causes of the menace with the intention of cutting the proverbial evil tree at the tap root. These measures will make him more enemies in expected and unexpected quarters.
Meanwhile, it is on record that Sambisa Forest- the home and the staging center for the terrorists, is presently under the control of the federal government. The military, especially the Army and the Air force achieved the feat during the second term of former President, General Mohammed Buhari using a combination of strategies, tactics and equipments.
Technology played key roles in the war efforts as drones were used in a continuum to gather intelligence, track enemy movements and to launch precision airstrikes on pre-determined targets and individuals like the leaders killed not too long ago. Other advanced technologies deployed included satellite imageries and sophisticated phone jamming and tapping devices. The satellite images largely helped pinpoint Boko Haram strongholds, help tracked movements of suppliers and also helped to assess damages caused as a result of air strikes.
Some other technologies deployed includes night-vision goggles, body armor and other encrypted communication techniques. The results were stunning and had generally kept Boko Haram gentle for now.
Even though one can say with all confidence that the capability of Boko Haram has been degraded, yet it is pertinent to know that they haven’t been eradicated. It’s true that they have lost a huge number of people put at 98,000 comprising men, women and children most of who were being trained to become potential soldiers and bombers yet we need to be weary of complacency.
The new government should improve on the ongoing work and continue to increase the security presence in the region. This will help to deter Boko Haram from stabilizing and carrying out attacks and also to prevent the group from regrouping.
We must also improve intelligence gathering and sharing. This will help the security forces to better understand Boko Haram’s operations and to identify and target the group’s new leadership and infrastructure.
It is a fact that as at 2015 when Buhari became the president of Nigeria, Boko Haram controlled an area of about 20,000 square kilometers or the size of 5 big local governments. However, presently , they control just a few hundred kilometers of land and has largely lost its erstwhile capabilities with which they carry out spectacular bombings and kidnappings in the past. Indeed, after several of their leaders were killed including Abubakar Shekau- the supreme leader and the founder of Boko Haram, thousands of insurgents had surrendered to the Nigerian Army voluntarily.
Howbeit, given the porosity of the Nigerian border and its vastness covering 4 countries in the north, east and west boarder areas, and with over 4,047 Kilometers or 2,515 miles in all; it should be seen that the task of stopping adversarial attacks is enormous and expensive. In the west, we share border with Benin Republic totaling 773 Kilometers or 480 miles. Cameroon is 1690 kilometers or 1,050 miles, Niger has about 1497 Kilometers or 930 miles. Ironically, Chad a country with only 87 Kilometers or 54 miles is said by experts to be the most difficult and a constant nightmare. Of all the boarders, Chad basin terrain is termed as “no-man’s” land and a notorious entry point for small and big arms and the mostly volatile and dangerous.
Asides from the land borders, Nigeria also has a coastline of 853 kilometers or 530 miles to contend with oil thieves and arms smugglers.
Also, the issue of bandits has been cantankerous and festering . How did banditries start. A metamorphosis of bands within Boko Haram? It is not far fetched that banditry was borne out of desire to share in the kidnapped victims’ ransom by some elements within Boko Haram and also a manifestation of the pseudo-Fulani Herdsmen. Motivated also by illegal mining and cattle rustling, bands of criminals were formed and through extortion were able to purchase guns and ammunition within and outside the country and greatly expand their operations. But after the Kaduna train hijack, the erstwhile government knew that the bandits were waxing stronger and something needed to be done as quickly as possible. And, they rose up to the occasion and did the needful.
And now, with the advent of the new government elected in February, the game needed to be changed even as they must consolidate on the work and achievements of the immediate past government. Meanwhile, whatever plans or ideas that President Tinubu and his close allies had prior to the announcement of his victory in the 2023 election, their informed assumptions were pale compared to what was on the ground. Without much ado, they quickly went to work quietly in UK and France to adjust to the new and official reality. There was no breathing room for them. Security briefings were been shared with them and the western countries were also volunteering information and advices as well.
Since we all know that there is a link between security and the economy, Asiwaju needed few “Quick Wins”. The only way to achieve that was to tackle the “Cabal” in the oil industry, in the CBN, and within the commercial banks in other to “follow the money”.
Hon. Gbajabiamila, the former speaker of the House of Representatives and majority of members of the 9th Assembly were said to have got assured that their efforts to get Emefiele and Malami allegedly accused for the N32.5 billion fraud will now see the light of the day. Godwin Emefiele, the suspended Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), is now currently facing allegations of mismanaging N32.5 billion ($83 million) belonging to the apex bank. The allegations were made by a group called the Concerned Nigerians, who filed a petition with the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) in April 2022.
The petition accused Emefiele of using the money to fund his presidential campaign without the approval of the CBN board. The group also alleged that Emefiele had used the money to purchase properties in Nigeria and the United States. All efforts to have EFCC and DSS investigate the allegations proved abortive. Even when the House of Representatives waged into the issue, Emefiele refused to honor their invitations. As it were now, Tinubu had to give the green light to relevant authorities to get the truth into the open. But first Emefiele had to be suspended so that he is not able to interfere with the investigations and also to show that the new government is for law and order and nobody is above the law. By so doing as we are now witnessing, the newly elected president has stepped on many toes because Emefiele could not have acted on his own but he was actually a willing tool in the hands of the “cabal”.
Again In 2021, the Nigerian government accused a Chinese company, Sinopec, of stealing 40 million barrels of oil worth $2.6 billion. The government alleged that Sinopec had illegally diverted the oil from the Forcados terminal in the Niger Delta region.
The government’s allegations were based on an investigation by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC). The EFCC said that it had found evidence that Sinopec had used a front company to buy the oil at a below-market price. The company then exported the oil to China without paying the Nigerian government any royalties or taxes.
Sinopec denied the allegations, saying that it had bought the oil legally from a Nigerian company. The company also said that it had paid all of the applicable taxes and royalties.
It isn’t funny that over almost two years down the line, the Nigerian government has not yet taken any legal action against Sinopec. The immediate past Attorney General, Alhaji Malami and the past government did not support the efforts of the EFCC and even obstructed investigations. At best it was reported that they were “considering” or “contemplating” filing a lawsuit against the company in a Chinese court. What a shame. This is the territory of the all powerful deceased Chief of staff, late Alhaji Abba Kyari and his team. If the new government would not want to fritter away the trust and credibility it’s building presently at home and abroad, it would not have a choice other than to pursue these malfeasances which are “low hanging fruits” ready for investigation.
Other dirty deals on the “top of the treehouse” are on the table and may be coming out sooner than later. Therefore, at the macro level of our fraud besieged economy, some elites who lives solely on corruption and having great war chests are writhing in suppressed fury already. How and when “corruption fight back” is a question of time. That is why Tinubu can’t afford to relent or allow the enemies at home and abroad to recalibrate, regroup and stabilize.
Meanwhile,at the micro and nano levels, or at the grassroots and the taproots where bandit and insurgent candidates are recruited, the first thing that the new administration should do is to up the scale on Community Engagement. Every local government has Community Development departments dealing with the Community Development Associations (CDAs). Special officers must be created and empowered with basic security training and liaison skills to continually engage the community in order to build trust and support the effort to thwart recruitment of youths for offensive programs and unwholesome businesses. Trust will be best achieved through “Outreaches” specializing in Skills Development and smart funding of “ready individuals” amongst youths and women. This leads me to a specific promise in the Renewed Hope Manifesto of APC and the President.
As spelled out in the APC manifesto the government promised to invest massively and decisively in identified ghettos and rural areas. Ironically, the rural areas which used to be tranquil, peaceful and morally upright are now the go-to for criminal elements.
The president and those close to him should be encourage to earnestly begin the implementation of the Tinubu Credit Driven Strategy immediately the cabinet is in place.
The strategy is said to be a financial inclusion policy which aims to provide access to credit to low-income Nigerians who are typically excluded from the formal financial system.
According to the thinking of Asiwaju and his team, the policy would be implemented through a number of initiatives, including:
* The creation of a credit bureau to track the credit history of borrowers.
* The establishment of a microfinance bank to provide loans to small businesses.
* The provision of government guarantees for loans made to low-income borrowers.
Actually this strategy was designed in good faith to boost economic growth by increasing access to credit for small businesses and entrepreneurs. It is also expected to reduce poverty by helping low-income Nigerians to improve their living standards. It makes a lot of sense since more people will have opportunities to participate in driving the economic wheel of Nigeria.
However, some people have expressed concerns about the cost of the policy, corruption by civil servants and agencies, and the potential for it to lead to increased defaults on loans citing the so-called “Nigerian factor”. Whatever the downside, methinks it is a significant idea which America uses a lot! More importantly, It could have a major impact on the Nigerian economy. And, particularly if well executed it will greatly reduce crimes, and lower the threshold for incessant thuggery and banditry.
On the other hand, here are some of the intended potential benefits of the Tinubu Credit-Driven Strategy:
* Increased economic growth: By providing access to credit to small businesses and entrepreneurs, the policy could boost economic growth by encouraging investment and job creation.
* Reduced poverty: By helping low-income Nigerians to improve their living standards, the policy could reduce poverty.
* Increased financial inclusion: By making it easier for people to access credit, the policy could help to increase financial inclusion in Nigeria thus increase opportunities, drastically reduce poverty as employment will be boosted all over the country. By so doing the devil may have no choice other than to go to other countries to find work for idle hands.
Meanwhile at the Nano level, we have drug dealers, Agberos and Ajagungbales festering presently all over the nation. The NDLEA is presently doing a good job of identifying and making record arrests but the communities are not cooperating enough. We have seen the move of the President addressing the need for synergy among security agents more so the need for a clearing house. This should be extended to every state, every local government as quickly as possible. The Police, Civil Defense, and all other security outfits and more importantly the traditional rulers and heads of villages should be brought into the loop. These measures will succeed greatly if the state government will start treating the local governments as another tier and not an orphan needing hand outs. The various Houses of Assembly should also be allowed to operate autonomously and by so doing make the job of the state government easier.
For example the law made by the House of Assembly in Lagos State against Cultism and Land-grabbers was so effective that it drove the actors to Ogun State. Ogun state House of Assembly made a similar law and former governor Ibikunle Amosun signed it into law. But as l write no single individual has been arraigned, convicted and jailed for the offenses in Ogun state. The scenario playing out is that these Ajagungbale or land-grabbers stays mostly on sites and in bushes where they are laws per se. They have connections in the Police and often “book” at the state level and Abuja before embarking on their nefarious activities. How soon will they become bandits given that they also have guns and other dangerous weapons. Nipping these in the bud right now will help every state to checkmate banditry and insurgence in real time. As at now and because of low or zero synergy, few boots on the ground, these nefarious activities goes unchecked and potential investors are beating retreat.
No doubt the President will make more enemies in the short term, but if he remains steadfast, unflinching, determined, fearless and refuses to hesitate in the face of danger or difficulty; he will not only succeed in stabilizing and modernizing Nigeria in a very short time, but would have used the accruing economic success to carve a niche for himself as a hero and an unforgettable icon in the history of Nigeria.
