The Centre for Democracy and Development (CDD) has released its analysis of the key issues that will likely shape the electoral process and outcomes when voters head to polls to elect governors in 28 states and House of Assembly members in 36 states of the federation.
According to the 15-page pre-election brief, voters in 17 states will elect new governors, while incumbents will be on the ballot in the remaining 11 states where the governorship election will be held.
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CDD Director, Idayat Hassan, said on Thursday that the analysis stressed that the credibility of the process would be critical, but would be challenged by the threat of violence.
“CDD also warned that logistical obstacles linked to violence, cash and fuel scarcity would be issues to contend with in the course of the governorship elections,” Hassan said.
In terms of the perception of the electoral umpire, CDD warned that decreased trust in the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) following the delays and technical issues that undermined the polls on 25 February would present challenges.
The report also listed six key themes likely to shape the governorship polls, while previewing how the political contests could shape up in 14 states.
According to the report, the six themes, which would shape the elections are identity, insecurity, institutional preparedness, intra and inter-party disputes, voter participation and the question of personalities versus parties.
“Whilst identity politics is sometimes more visible at the national level, state politics is arguably its main domain with candidate selection requiring careful consideration of one, or a combination of, ethnicity, religion and senatorial district zone depending on the state,” the report stated.
The report also noted that fractious party primaries leading to intra-party disputes and the fact that 60 percent of contests will not have a sitting governor on the ticket, will also fuel strong inter-party competition in a number of states.
Subsequently, the analysis said that the frustration expressed by Nigerians at the conduct of INEC during the 25 February elections could impact on the polls.
It said, “The timely arrival of materials, improved functionality of technology and quick action against electoral officials caught engaged in malpractice will be critical in countering suggestions that INEC is subject to the whims and caprices of some state governments.”
Consequently, CDD drew attention to the challenge, which would likely be posed by violence, and election-specific disruptions, which it said portends dangers in terms of INEC’s ability to conduct credible elections.
