By Tunde Abatan
Since he joined partisan politics in 1991 by membership of the proscribed Social Democratic Party,SDP ,on which platform he later contested for and won election as a senator of the federal republic,he has never lost an election neither has he moved from one party to the other.
Even when he was left alone as the only surviving governor of the Alliance for Democracy,AD, he stayed behind and lift the party up resulting in it’s upgrading to the Action Congress,AC.
However, 48 hours after the conduct of this year’s Presidential election in which he was a candidate,he was defeated by the Presidential candidate of the Liberal Party,Peter Obi by polling 572,606 votes to Obis 582,664 votes.
The third party,the People’s Democratic Party,came a distance third with,75,250 voted.
Yet,you could say just mete 10000, a number is important to a good politician since it’s all a game of numbers.
Many reasons could be advanced for this reversal in the fortune of Tinubu regarded as the strong man of Lagos politics.
Even when his government was faced with hostility from the then government of former President Olusegun Obasanjo especially during his second term in office by seizure of his states local government allocation he went ahead to beat the President’s party and ensure a successor in person of Babatunde Raji Fashola.
One of the immediate factors to this development could not be separated from the citizens anger as a result of the monetary policy introduced by his party,the APC led by President Muhammadu Buhari who refused to suspend the policy imspite of Supreme court ruling.
Beside Lagos,the policy caused untold hardship to citizens across Nigeria and Tinubu himself declared that the I’ll thought policy is meant to make the party lose the election.
Well,the party has not lost at the federal only in Lagos.
Even at that margin of 10,000, the APC still managed to win the three senatorial seats and twelve house of representatives seats.
The turn out of the voters in the Presidential election in Lagos is just a quarter of the six million registered voters which the party boasted it will deliver.but failed.
Indeed,aside other parties,Tinubu issued a statement saying it is democracy at work. Sign of a democrat.
But then,the scar of the defeat of his party in his territory remains part of his story and history!
The you ask the question,what happened to the tumultuous crowd of parry faithfuls which welcome the APC leader to Lagos on Tuesday February,21 2023 in preparation for grand finale of his party’s presidential campaign attended by Buhari,?.
Two weeks before the election,Works minister, Babatunde Raji Fashola,SAN and former Lagos governor, re-launched 10,000 foot soldiers which he has always deployed to embark on house -to- house campaign in the state.
What happened to the foot soldiers?
With a vote of a little over five hundred thousand,what happened to the millions of party members in the state.?
We’re they trapped from voting in the election due to non availability of funds to mobilise them due to the cash crunch imposed by same government?
Besides,Lagos has always voted for progressives since the past six decades,what went wrong this time arround?
Another factor in the election is the absence of robust campaign by Governor Babajide Sanwoolu and the state branch of APC who it will appear are lacksidasical and took things for granted that Lagos is for the take.
Before Fashola re launch of the 10000 foot soldiers,the main opposition,PDP led by its Governorship candidate,Tunde Adediran had embarked on its own door to door campaign in the state.
Yet the question,how could a ruling party for 24 years struggle to defeat an opposition party?
Have it been carried away by challenges of victory and thus brace smell of imminent defeat?
Another important issue worthy of mention is the South East factor in the election.
From the areas where the LP won most polling units..Ajeromi,Ibeju Lekki,Oshodi Isolo,Festac,Mile 2 ,Satellite town,Ikeja,Victoria Garden City,VGC,it is apparent have more of Nigerians of South East extraction who are determined to ensure that their son clinch the Presidency.
The turn out shows that they were organised,coordinated and focused on the goal.
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They refused to allow the cash crunch to be a barrier to their goal and aspirations.
How they were able to get their people out is a topic for another day.
But their courage and loyalty deserves commendation.
Another important factor is the anger of the youths who are still aggrieved by the attitude and role of the state government during the 2021 EndSars protest which saw blood flowing in the state especially at the Lekki Toll gate.
Though,the participation of youths across the ethnic groups in the state remains to be determined,the fact remains that the anger of the EndSars crisis and it’s excesses cuts across the state in particular and nation in general.
What is more,the level of unemployment in the country is a cause for youths anger to which the LP latch its campaign on.
Since the LP in the state has no recognisable structure,the solidarity of the youths is not in question .
However,it remains to be seen if their commitment to party goal after the elections is sustainable.
Another important factor worthy of mention is the attitude of the state government to various socio cultural groups in the state which were the building block when democracy returned in 1999 and on which the then AD derived it’s structure.
As a top member of one of the groups told Newdawnngr, all entreaties made to let the state government understand the ethnic and political undercurrents which informed the power and leadership structure in the state were jettisioned.
How far has APC leadership fated on this?
The usual clamour of ‘Lagos is no Man’s Land’ often claimed by the indigenes of other tribes especially the Igbos of South East extraction in the state is being given practical demonstration by the result of the Presidential election.
Another important factor obvious to the politically discernible is the division in the main opposition People’s Democratic Party,PDP which since 2003 had never had a united house in it’s leadership.
The election of last Saturday shows that a congregation of those who are dissatified with PDP opposition role and leadership had found expression in the LP which may turn out to replace the PDP as the main opposition party if the APC managed to secure victory in the governorship election.
However,the fact must be pointed out that should the residents and youths who defy the pains to vote last Saturday do the same on date of governorship election on March 11 without a considerable mobilisation by the ruling APC, then the table of rulership of the state may turn this year.
This becomes feasible if the PDP strike an understanding and possible alliance with LP to pull resources and strength together to defeat the APC.
However, considering the anger, bitterness and shock among the symphathethic larger populace who felt slighted by the LP defeat last Saturday,turn out on March 11 may change the tide.
As for Asiwaju Tinubu known as a master strategist,the outcome of the collation of votes which had so far put him ahead of the three other contestants by the result declared by INEC will determine the shape of things to come.
The outcome of last Saturdays election is a lesson for government,political parties and leaders across the broad spectrum of the civil society.
