By Olusegun Olurin
President Vladimir Putin is in a self made dilemma. He may suffer a major set-back at home especially within his most active, most vitriolic supporters rightly dubbed “Radicalized Ultra-Patriots”. This is because of the recent Ukraine’s successful counter attacks in the Kharkiv and Kherson regions; and more so because of the failure of Kremlin’s propaganda.
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The Russian war efforts on the battlefield is not only suffering setback, the Kremlin’s propaganda war at home and abroad is also failing and gradually collapsing on daily basis. Also, most of the closed down television and radio stations in Russia have found homes in the neighboring countries like Estonia. Add to them all Ukraine allies who are bombarding Russian at home and abroad in real time with real life images of the war, you can now see why the Kremlin admitted defeat but calling it “Strategic Regrouping of Troops”.
This ambiguous language is said to have infuriated Putin’s active supporters of the war and also demoralized them to the extent that they are now calling for the heads of the country’s military leaders.
One major headache for Putin is that he either listen to the demand of the Ultra-Patriots who are vociferously calling for for the declaration of all-out war against Ukraine, or continue his “Special Operation” and risk total defeat of the war and stand demystified at home.
On the one hand, the Radicalized Ultra-Patriots are few but very active and carrying the banner of imperialism, sloganeering everything with impunity. They are his strong base. On the other hand, the passive Russians who neither support the war nor oppose it are in clear majority and may have began to form contrary opinions in view of the discussion to increase the army by all means and the suspicion that the so-called special operation may become all out and full blown war thus triggering mass destabilization of the country’s economy.
Meanwhile, in the East Kharkiv, on the 9th of September, the Ukrainian army’s Special Forces raided Velykiy Burluk, and ran a successful reconnaissance. And on the morning of the 10th of September, they opened assault on the town. While safeguarding the Northern flank and advancing over Oskil River within 4 days the area was swiftly liberated. Kupayansk, the western side of the town fell firmly into the hand of the Ukrainian forces. So also is Senkove. And within 24 hours or so,they have captured the local bridge and used it to advance further east taking Bakhty in the process.
Further more, the Russian army fled the strategic town of Izyum but a large number of men in the Russian garrison who were stationed there managed to escape being captured.
Also, the ZSU launched a three prong attack further south in the frontline of Maidan and Slovyansk and Lyman and have now recovered the whole place from the Russian army. By the 12th of September, the Ukrainian offensive from Siversk via Verkhnokamyanka on Lyschansk was also successful as Russian hurriedly withdrew. And, with the capture of the Russian supply depots in Balakleya and Kupyansk, it seemed like the Russian war efforts has become more difficult.
So, what are the options left for Putin? In recent times, Putin has touted the option of nuclear weapons and given that he is stubborn and can be irrational, the world needs to pay keen attention at this moment. Informed opinions says he has considered the Saddam Hussein strategy after the fall of Faw in 1986; meaning the option of sitting back and giving the Generals freehand to do anything doable to win the war! However to placate his die hard supporters, will he just replace Defense Military Leadership? Or will he resort to brutal, scotch earth shelling of civilians and critical infrastructure of Ukraine using long range missiles?
Unfortunately for Putin on the propaganda frontline, the Telegram messaging app that was wildly and widely adopted by his diehard supporters may have inadvertently made Kremlin’s propaganda a suspect. This is so because the Ukrainian counterattack blitzkrieg which succeeded in driving out the Russian troops from a very large part of Kharkiv region became an undeniable spectacle on the channels of Telegram. Meanwhile, the Ultra-Patriots channels on the app has described the withdrawal as a ‘catastrophe’. They are now demanding total truths about the situation on the ground and also calling for purges in the army chain of command and for general mobilization for an all out war!
Again, unfortunately, within the six months of the war, subscription to the channels on Telegram has topped a million mark; you can begin to imagine the heavy blow to the Kremlin’s propaganda in the controlled media.
Meanwhile, large numbers of Russians are tired of propaganda of the State-Owned TV channels that are instructed to run political shows. The distaste is evident by heavy dropping and decline in viewership. Instead, they have shifted enmasse to entertainment shows which is gaining popularity in leaps and bonds.
Sensing the steady failure of propaganda, and in order to placate his supporters, President Putin has ordered an increased size of the army by 137,000 men to be effective latest by January 2023. Already, one quarter of the combined Russian military are conscripts while the others are professional soldiers. An unconfirmed report says most of the conscripts sent to the war front in Ukraine were hastily trained, barely equipped and poorly fed. Worst still, most are “Street Boys” and prisoners.
It is impossible to predict the next lines of actions of President Putin. Surely there will be a Russian counterattacks because the VSRF still control the railway from Belgorod but they have no major supply hubs in the North or the North East of the current combat zone. More so, the ZSU is running constant reconnaissance in front of its advancing units and informing them of Russian movements and identifying any concentration using highly sophisticated latest technology supplied by the West.
Surely, this war is between David and Goliath. But this David has the backing of experienced and great warriors with latest equipments of war and very deep pockets. It is likely to be a well-drawn out war with consequences for all.
Already grain shortages is hurting Africans severely simply because we rely on Russia and Ukraine for most of our grain needs. And as Akinwunmi Adeshina, the President of African Development Bank succinctly puts it :
“Now, let me explain that Russia’s exports to Africa are about $4 billion a year, 90 per cent of that is actually wheat. If you take the case of Ukraine, their exports are roughly $4.5bn a year,
most of that is wheat and maize. Ukraine alone accounts for 31 per cent of the maize imports for the African countries. Furthermore he said;
“The business of Africa is to put seed in the ground…” Dr Akinwumi Adesina told The National on the sidelines of the World Government Summit held in Dubai.
In the age of social media, crafting propaganda can be very tricky as news has become instantaneous and information is virtually viral. Ukraine seemed to be wining the propaganda campaign and has used the social media more effectively to deceive the Russians several times. Ukraine has also used wisdom to conceal its real strength and her plans many times just because they are fully aware of their strength and weaknesses.
The lesson to be learned in this war are many. The Yoruba gainsay says “Awon ti won yo npanu, awon tebi npa won rankun”. In other words; never boast about your prowess. Africans should also learn to produce her food. Relying on Europeans for our food (given the land and water resources available) is reckless to say the least.
Olurin writes in from Ota,Ogun state olusegunolurin365@gmail.com
