By Tunde Abatan, tunde2013abatan@gmail.com,08165660217
Don’t mind their pronouncements, denials and pretensions,they are all desperate.
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Desperate to win this epic battle in 2023 for which they have amassed resources,though at different levels and in different ways.
The three leading presidential gladiators are eagerly massing defence lines and plotting strategies both to outwit each other and also to gain voters attention and advantage.
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However, as the three leading candidates get prepared to kick start their campaign in September 28,the date given by the Independent National Electoral Commission,INEC, many factors have emerged that will combine to determine who emerges the next President among them.
The chief among the factors which has over the years since attainment of independence in 1960 consistenly determine is the issue of ethnicity.
Ethnicity is pronounced because the North South dichotomy has always been played up when election time approaches..
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However,next year, will be the first time since the election to the second republic which was based on Presidential system of government..
That the three notable and leading presidential candidates are from the three dominant ethnic groups in the country calls to question the effectiveness or otherwise of our nation building efforts over the years.
How come that almost 40 years after the collapse of the second republic,the three parties now in serious contention-The All Progressives Congress,APC,the People’s Democratic Party, PDP and the Labour Party,LP though appears national in outlook,have all come to represent and indeed draw their strength from the three regions which the defunct,Unity Party of Nigeria,National Party of Nigeria,NPN and Nigeria People’s Party,NPP drew their strengths from?
Today,it is incontestable fact that the trio of Senator Bola Ahmed Tinubu,Alhaji Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi are all seen as candidates representing the three ethnic groups and drew their immediate support base from the three regions
As regards the South South and North Central geopolitical zones,the three top contestants will each line up to draw additional support to secure at least 25 percent of votes towards meeting the constitutional requirements of a presidential candidate.
As for the North East,though a part of the erstwhile monolithic North, is also seen as the home base of vice presidential candidate of the APC, Kashim Shettima . Kashomas candidature is seen as the zones shot at the Presidency since 1999.
Asiwaju Bola Tinubu:
As a known political strategist and builder who has effectively build bridges,his advantage is seen largely from his larger acceptance from his home base South West region which today has no other candidate and us perhaps going to be a candidate who enjoys and will attract traditional block votes from the region with it’s 18,332,191 votes.
With massive war chest he is in better stead among others who can be said to hold his zone known for its consistent political behaviour more closely to his chest in spite of presence of the PDP and the youths who are likely to look elsewhere.
In addition,Tinubus close political relationship with the North West which has largest voter registration of 22,672,373 in the country.
His ability to swing votes in Kano,Katsina,Sokoto,
Zamfara,Kaduna and kebbi may make a difference.
But he has an uphill task reducing the Senator Rabiu Kwakwanso who is carrying the New Nigeria People’s Party,NNPP flag and his strong hold on Kanos largely Talakawas voters .
It is also a fact that Atiku voter influence is much considering the fact that Atiku is still seen by others from the North as representing their interest.
In the North Central and North East,Tinubu will have to douse the fears of Christain especially on the Muslim-Muslin ticket,the emergence of Governor Lalong as head of the Campaign Organisation nothwithstanding.
The ethno-religious issues of the past seven years is also a factor to determine voter behaviour.
The North Centrals 15,680,438 votes may be a challenge for Tinubu especially if the largely non- Fulani and Christain population look in the direction of a Christain candidate .
If Senator Shettima is able to make his impact in his North East home, the influence of Atiku may be reduced to get the chunk out of the zones 12,820,363 votes..it is a close to call case but Shettima may spring surprises.
As for the South East,only the influence of two governors of Ebonyi,David Umahi and Hope Uzodinma could reduce Obis influence and manage to get 25% in the two states.
Atiku Abubakar:
Vice President Atiku Abubakar in spite of having left power fifteen years ago still has a considerable influence in the Northern states.
With the provincial manner of President Muhammadu Buharis handling of and management of the nations diversity,the North is being primed not to want to relinquish power especially inner caucus of Buhari.
This may count in favour of Atiku in the three Northern states.
It is only in the three regions of the South than Northern Presidency may be seen as a continuation of Buharis policies.
If the inner cabals and Northern hegemonists have their way,Atiku may still swing surprises in North West and North East.
But considering the lack of credible,popular and sustainable mass support for Atiku in South West which had a popular Yoruba candidate,Atiku may have to look in the direction of South South and South East.
But then,the factor of Rivers governor,Nyesome Wike and his non committal to the PDP may rob Atiku of the reasonable 25% votes.
The votes are needed to compensate for his probable poor showing in South East five states of Ebonyi,Imo,Enugu, Anambra and Abia.
The activities of the Independence People’s of Biafra,IPOB may also pose a hinderance for Atiku except of Obi made a political somersault by backing off and switch camp to Atiku as being rumoured.
Peter Obi:
Since the return of politics in 1999,the Igbo of south east extraction has been in the clamour for a President of Igbo extraction.
This explains why the departure of Peter Obi a former governor of Anambra state from the PDP is significant. Significant for the simple fact that his candidature is now generally seen as the only route to Igbo Presidency .
That youths from the South East see in him the Hope of the future is also an encouragement on the youths from the SW,SS and other parts of the country.
Obi has a drawback of political structures but the emergence of Obi movement all over the country is now seen as a possible transmission of power to the youths.
The South East total registered vote of 11,498,277 though the lowest in the country is been seen as a complement to the growing popularity of Obi among youths of all hues.
Granting that he could muster at least 75%of votes in the five South east states,the presence of large Igbo population in Lagos,centre of SW politics,the North Central states like Plateau,Benue,Kogi, Nasarawa, Kebbi and others is seen as an inroad for him.
For now,Obi has to contend with hostility of opponents in view of the style of campaign of his youthful followers who are now seen as de-marketting his prospects in view of attacks on sensibility of other Southern candidates.
Should Obi fail to cross the Niger in voter preference,it won’t be for lack of trying but rather doing enough to defeat more prepared candidates.
