Frankly Speaking 2023: Wike,Fayose, Ortom,as Atiku’s achilles heels

Frankly Speaking
By Tunde Abatan, tunde2013abatan@gmail.com 08165660217

Those who fail to learn from the lessons of history,they relive it says a sage.

Atiku

In 1992, after the Presidential primaries of the then Social Democratic Party,SDP, held in Jos,the Plateau state capital,winner of the contest,the late Moshood Kashimawo Abiola,hopped into his jet and zoom off to Lagos.
He did not wait for the result of election into the other offices of the party’s national executive thereby leaving the stage for other tendencies in the party to hijack it’s machinery.

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As for him,now that he has emerged it’s candidate,the party should rally round him.
What a big and costly mistake.

But then,he never knew he has made a mistake which was part of what cost him the non -validation and retrieval of the mandate later stolen by then President Ibrahim Babangida through the historic annulment.

The late Tony Anenih,the retired police officer who emerged the national chairman of the SDP was at the negotiating team which traded away the historic mandate.

Abiola and indeed his supporters learnt a bitter lesson-Never leave the stage open until the contest is over.

The rest as they say is history.

Today,Abubakar Atiku,the presidential candidate of the opposition People’s Democratic Party,PDP, also jumped into his jet and zoomed off to Dubai after the presidential primaries of his party.

As a result, Atiku is facing the serious threat to his ticket and a possible abandonment unless he quickly mend fences,pacify losers and unite with at least fourteen of his rattled governors who accused him of abandoning them like Abiola after securing his partys ticket.

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Besides abandoment, Atikus other sin is that contrary to advice of the panel set up by the party, he picked incumbent Governor of Delta State,Senator Ifeanyichukwu Okowa, as his running mate.

According to sources,only three out of seventeen governors voted for Okowa while others picked Nyesome Wike,the ‘canterkerous’ Rivers State governor.

While Atiku indeed has a choice among the three recommended ,he failed to draw to himself and convince the now aggrieved governors,why he jettison Wike, often seen as too assertive by those against his choice.

Hence,both the PDP governors led by Benue Governor ,Samuel Ortom and Wike has become free rangers now being courted and touted by the ruling party.

Beside the perception of Wike as being independent minded,Atiku’s minders feels his Presidency needs somebody not as loud or assertive as Wike who ironically has financed the party in the South South more than any governor.

To show the importance of the Rivers helmsman to the party,top notchers are now on his trail,begging him not to rock it’s boat in South South and especially Rivers amidst threat of jumping- off PDP ship.

Contrary to Atiku,Bola Ahmed Tinubu,flagbearer of the ruling All Progressives Congress,APC, immediately after his victory at the Eagles Square commenced a reconciliatory move by visiting all his co- contestants who lost to him during the primaries including key figures in the party to seek their support in winning the coveted Presidential trophy.

He even paid visit to Vice President Yemi Osinbajo, his toughest challenger from the South West often dubbed by Tinubu’s supporters as a betrayer.

Tinubu also paid visit to both his closest challenger,Rotimi Amaechi and indeed Senator Godswil Akpabio,all in his bid to unite his challengers and by extension the party behind him.

Today,Atiku had to make an open appeal to the aggrieved party leaders promising to make amends and carry them along.

Said he,” We are taking action to address the feelings of all party members.The Unity in our community is our priority. Our resolve to unify Nigeria starts in our party and moves to our society”.

But has Atiku really made rapprochement to likes of Bukola Saraki and Sokoto State Governor,Ahmed Tambuwal?.

In annoyance,Saraki complained of abandonment immediately after Atiku won the primaries.

In the middle Belt,the raging feeling against the emergence of another Fulani at the helm of the nations affairs,is another albatross on the neck of Atiku especially since the state Governor,Ortom openly oppose Atiku.

With the experience of Benue farmers and citizens in the hands of rampaging and untouchable herdsmen in the last seven years,Ortoms position is further strengthen should he decided to stay in PDP and work against the victory of Atiku his party man.

Atiku may also suffer the same fate in the hands of an aggrieved Wike who though denied having visited Tinubu in France last week,is said to be looking in his direction ,at least to teach Atiku and by extension,PDP, a lesson.

What is more,Wike has the support of Rivers people and its deep pocket to stay inside and support opposing candidate.

If Atiku is having problem with South- South and some parts of the Middle belt led by Benue,how would he use the South East already divided house to gain upper hand in the presidential election.

Though traditionally,the Igbo South East are inclined to support conservative North right from the first republic ,yet the activities of the militant Independent People’s of Biafra,IPOB and the emergence of Peter Obi on the ticket of the Labour party, may further compound his problem.

Though Obi,is still in talks with Rabiu Kwakwansos Northern fold, yet whichever way the talk goes,Obi is still relatively sure of block votes especially from the youths in the South East and those of Igbo extraction in other parts of the country.

Though of late Okowas Igboness is being amplified,core Igbos from the South East still regard him as not being Igbo enough to be trusted and followed.

With Wike in romantic dance with the opposing parties,it is doubtful whether Atiku can extract enough from both zones.

Back in South West, considered the stronghold of Tinubu, former Ekiti state governor, Ayodele Fayose, who still retain his PDP identity has openly declared his support for a Southern President in clear opposition to Atikus candidacy.

What is more,no notable PDP leader was in Ekiti penultimate week to drum support for PDP candidate during the Governorship election.

Does it mean Atiku and PDP has accepted South West dominance by Tinubus APC?

With the apparently unchallenged block voting pattern of the region, the result is not far fetched.

Even in Oyo state now being ruled by the PDPs Governor Seyi Makinde, the support of Atiku and his party during the presidential election is very dicey.

Ironically,Makinde too is not in the best of terms with Atiku as he is one of the Governors angry with his attitude to the party.
Not only him,they are also angry with Iyorchia Ayu,the national chairman who is presently attending to his health challenges outside the country.

As for the North West ,it is clear that the emergence of Kwakwansos New Nigeria People’s Party,NNPP, represents a third force which will split the votes among three contending parties..the APC of Ganduje, Kwakwanso and Atiku.

In the North East,where he hails from,Atiku will have to contend with Governor Abubakar Zulum of Borno state who is a strong party man.

The Turaki needs to do beyond the general thinking that being the only core northerner and Muslim,the votes of the Northern masses are for the taking especially since the entrance of political figures like Kwakwanso may reduce his dominance.

In spite of all, the changing dynamics of the nation politics propelled by growing clamour for Southern presidency makes the task before the Turaki of Adamawa not a child’s play.
Interesting times ahead!