The Test of Strength between Tinubu and Osinbajo

By Tunde Abatan

The formal entry into the presidential race of Vice President Yemi Osinbajo,has laid to rest speculation about his ambition.

2023: ‘War’imminent between Tinubu and Osinbajo in SW
It has also laid to rest rumours and insinuations as to the propriety of his entry into the race considering the godfather relationship he has with Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

Tinubu It will be recalled, it was who nominated Osibajo to serve as vice president to President Muhammadu Buhari.
Osinbajo was Tinubus Attorney General for eight years when he was Lagos state governor.

2023: Osinbajo hosts governors
The entrance of Professor Osinbajo to the Presidential race for nomination in the same party has a lot of implications both for the party in the South West where they both hailed from and the nation in general.

First,his entrance won’t go down well with Tinubus supporters who latched on issues of morality saying Osinbajo should have left the race for his benefactor.

Pictures: President Buhari, VP Osibanjo at Independence day parade
On the other hand, those rooting for Osinbajo are also of the view that since there was no pact or agreement as to the future ambition of Osinbajo in 2015 when he was nominated for the joint ticket with Buhari, no moral ground has been broken.

Also not broken is the vice presidents right to pursue his fundamental right as a citizen having served as vice president for seven years.

He has also not violated any known law of the party neither has he violated the 1999 constitution of the federal republic of Nigeria.

As for Asiwaju Tinubu, his entry too has not broken any known law in the party or country.

So as things stands today,the duo as sons of Yoruba South West Nigeria, have ignited the age- long rivalry between two powerful contending forces in the region.

While some compare their relationship to the one between Chief Obafemi Awolowo,the late Action Group leader and Ladoke Akintola,Governor of Western region during the first republic, yet none of them has left the party neither have they call each other out in a fight of morals or ideology save for their followers.

Although,since he became vice president,Osinbajo as he claimed in his declaration, has travelled the length and breadth of Nigeria, yet it is doubtful whether he has the reach of Tinubu.

In the South West, it is not in contention that Tinubu helped most of the governors with the exception of Oyo state into office using his political machinery, funds and contacts.

Although,he cannot be said to be in the same tendency with Governor Kayode Fayemi of Ekiti state and Rotimi Akeredolu of Ondo, yet the later could not be said to be his enemy either.

As of today,Tinubu still has a reasonable structure in both states while his firm grip on Osun state where his cousin,Gboyega Oyetola is holding sway is not in doubt.

His control of Lagos APC is also very firm.

In Ogun state,the battle for the control may be between Tinubu who has the support of Chief Olusegun Osoba, a former governor of the state and Dapo Abiodun,the state Governor.

However,with the structure of the party firmly in the hands of incumbent Governor Abiodun, who is a faithful supporter of Osinbajo who helped him to power in 2019, the race may be a three -cornered fight.

Also relevant in Ogun politics is former governor now Senator Ibikunle Amosun who is still yet to decide his loyalty between Osinbajo and Tinubu.

However,it is not impossible that Amosun may give support to whoever of the duo,President Buhari throws his weight behind.

As things stand today, Asiwaju Tinubu still has a firm grip on the party structure in Oyo state while former communications minister, Adebayo Shittus loyalty to him is not exactly the best given his being a member of Buharis Congress for Progressive Change,CPC.

However,one crucial factor which will determine the winner of the primary in the country is hinged on how far Osinbajo can reach out to political players in the core Northern states of Sokoto,Bauchi,Katsinaand Kaduna state.

If the rumoured rapport between him and Governor Abubakar Zulum of Borno state is anything to go by,then the primary may go his way.

The same thing cannot be said of Kano state where Governor Ganduje had a very close working relationship with Tinubu.

The former Lagos governor is also very strong in the middle belt state, an area which may however be too close to call considering Osinbajos recent shuttle trips and backing by some Northerners.

Same scenario is also true of the South East and South South states of the country.

However,whoever President Buharis preference among the duo,the South West level of political sophistication may still play out to favour Osinbajo who is seen as an aspirant who has less baggage, younger and seen as a bridge builder in the South and eastern region.

For now,traditional rulers in the Yoruba South West part of the country are said to be at cross roads on which of the two to support knowing their craving for power to return to the region in 2023.

As for the elite who are neither in any of the political parties but are also affected by the economic and social dislocation of the past seven years, more of them are expected to be interested in who will restore the south west lost glory.
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Self determination groups are also not ruled out as their clamour for Restructuring and Secession will be a strong factor.

With the release of Chief Sunday Adeyemo aka Igboho,the Secessionist fighter in Benin prisons, he is also a factor as his supporters and symphatisers in the region may also wield influence on who to vote for.

Though Yoruba socio cultural group,Afenifere has through it’s leader,Chief Ayo Adebanjo been canvasing for power to rotate to the Igbo South east,it is doubtful whether it’s influence in determining voters behaviour in the region could ACH eve this.

However,political pundits believe that the rivalry between Tinubu and Osinbajo may not be as bitter as experienced during the first republic.

However,if feelers among the Tinubu camp is anything to go by,his denial of a ticket may lead him to move his supporters to the Social Democratic Party,SDP on which platform he may contest.

This will however depend on whether his supporters among the governors in the APC may be bold enough to brave the odds and decamp with him.

It will be recalled that during the first republic, Awolowos Action Group,AG and Akintolas, Nigeria National Alliance,NNA had a rivalry which led to the operation wetie after the rigging of the 1994 general elections.
For Nigeria, to have relative stability will also depend on respect for internal democracy among all the major political parties .
Interesting tunes ahead for politics in the country.