By Tunde Abatan, tunde2013abatan@gmail.com 08165660217
All over the world politics is about interest and goals. While some claim to have principles for going to politics such principles in most cases are rooted in their personal interest.
Again during the Cold War and era of ideology in Nigerias politics, only very few pursued the ideology of their political parties for common interest.
Many of the politicians either belong to such parties to use it to climb to power in order to realise their personal interest and goals or to enhance their position.
Since he became the rallying point of what remained of the Alliance for Democracy,AD,the party which itself was formed by Yoruba mainstream socio political group Afenifere to push the agenda of Yoruba after the annulment of June 12, presidential election won by business mogul,chief Moshood Kashimawo Abiola, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu has become an issue in South West politics.
He became an issue because as the only Governor left in power after the humiliating defeat of five out of the six governors produced by the party in 2003,he was the last man standing and he carved a niche which made other politicians in his party gravitate towards him. His rise to the level of political godfather in the region was helped in no small way by his outsmarting his other colleagues to retain his seat. Perhaps if other AD governors like Ogun states,Chief Olusegun Osoba,Ondo Adebayo Adefarasin,Oyos Lam Adesinas,Ekiti, Adeniyi Adebayo and Osun Adebisi Akande have all escaped the People’s Democratic Party,PDP,sweeping of South West,during the 2003 polls,maybe the story of Tinubu would have been different today.
It will be recalled that Tinubu since after the electoral debacle in 2003 became the rallying point,the chief host and financier of sort of the defeated governors of both the AD as a party and Afenifere led largely by late Chief Obafemi Awolowos old school lieutenants.
Another factor that contributed to Tinubus rise to political star boy in South West was the demise by assassination of easily the most intelligent and versatile,politician of Awos school of thought,the late Chief Bola Ige,who lost his life while serving as Power Minister under President Olusegun Obasanjo.
There is no denying the fact that Tinubu with his resources and political cooperation of the defeated AD governors mentioned above developed the party and gave it wider political leverage by transmitting to Action Congress of Nigeria,ACN .
But not before he and his colleague governors have reduced to the barest minimum, the influence of Afenifere in the party and at a point practically spit on the face of the elders in Afenifere led by the late Senator Abraham Adesanya,who warned of consequences of refusing to pay obeisance to their wisdom in running AD and making it a rallying point.
This writer could remember vividly Tinubu declaring to the press at the Jibowu headquarters of Afenifere…”I don’t want to have rags if some wanted.” This declaration was in obvious reference to the elders reminding him of Yoruba adage,”bi omode ba ni aso bi agba,ko le ni akisa bi agba.”
From that point,the line of battle and subsequent division was drawn between the old generation of Awo followers and the new generation led by Tinubu and co- some of who though adorned Awos cap but left his thinking behind.
Clearly the point of departure between the Tinubu camp in AD and Afenifere was ideological.
While the later wanted Restructuring to return the country to true federalism,the former inspired by Tinubu wanted to stretch hands across the Niger and cuddled Northern power brokers albeit without any concrete agreement or clearly defined programme. But as it has turned out today, to get power for the sake of power has been the greatest undoing of Tinubu and his co travellers from the AD in the new political camp which berthed the All Progressives Congress,APC .
Yes,Tinubu succeeded in welding together his disciples and followers to install the reactionary wing of the Northern establishment in power through support for Presidency of Muhammadu Buhari,a die in the wool reactionary of Fulani hue.
Today,Tinubu could not boast that same Buhari and his Congress for Progressive Change,CPC cabal in the APC could trust him with power.
The question remains whether the wisdom of elders” living with rags” is not what is needed now by him and his disciples to navigate the straight political corner he appears to have boxed himself from where the neposistic politics Buhari and his northern cohorts have boxed him.
Today,years after Tinubu has built an awesome political machinery which snatched back the remnant of South West mainstream from the conservative PDP with the exception of Oyo state which has been going back and front,the disciples he raised up ostensibly to help him in his ultimate ambition of becoming the President of Nigeria are on his neck and about to tear into shreds the political empire he used them to build at the twilight of his career.
As he declared gleefully after he met President Muhammadu Buhari,that Presidency of Nigeria was his goal since he joined politics through the Primrose group of former Transport Minister, Chief Dapo Sarumi, he is about to receive an equal dose in return of what he served his godfather’s after his desertion from the group which threw him up politically.
However,the point has to be made that,it is to Tinubus record that it was during his time and by his effort that aspirants in the SW can jump from one state different from their state of origin to the other to become either house member,senators or governors.
Ironically, some of those he helped achieved their ambition with his assumed SW godfatheism, are today the very one about to remove the plank from his feet!
Why is this happening when Tinubu is about to reap the political benefit of his having succeeded in building an opposition platform to capture power at the centre only for the planks he used for such platform to turn against him?.
There is no doubt that Tinubus is partly responsible for throwing up of new ‘disciples’ and governors in the SW with his resources for either electoral battle on their election day or battle at the court where most of them including but not limited to Dr Kayode Fayemi of Ekiti,Senator Ibikunle Amosun of Ogun , Arakunrin Rotimi Akeredolu of Ondo and lastly, Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola of Osun state who have since moved from being a governor to a Minister in a sensitive ministry.
Of the lot, only Akeredolu can be said to still extend a warm embrace to Tinubu ,the rest are either individually or collectively paddling their own canoe in the fledgling APC house.
But then,Tinubu need a strong house to prove a point to other tendency from the North and South in APC that he still remains the strong political godfather of SW.
The point has to be made also that all the while Tinubu is giving helping hand to install his disciples in SW, he is also using the states so ‘conquered” to build his financial empire and muscle through either tax consultancy and or contract for building infrastructure where his ‘front’ firms have cornered juicy contracts.
So it is not all about him investing but also about reaping from his investment and a big one at that.
Governor Ibikunle Amosun of Ogun state euphemistically likened Tinubus stangle hold ọn the region to the historical and centuries old Oyo empire homage ‘tax’ collectors -Ajeles exploits in other Yoruba kingdoms, at the height of 2019 governoship nomination in Ogun state where his camp of the party in the state was pitched against Tinubu and former Governor Osoba tendencies in the party.
All the while and since he became governor in 1999, Tinubu has also held Lagos, his frontline base, tightly under his firm grip getting juicy contracts and dispensing favours here and there towards his 2023 biggest move.
Ironically,while some of his lieutenants like Senators Musiliu Obanikoro, Adeseye Ogunlewe and former National Legal Adviser, Muiz Banire , who two years ago brought irritant Kaduna state governor,Nasil El Rufai to Lagos to deliver a lecture ọn how to teach Tinubus lieutenants how to sack godfather’s, and others, have all mellowed down with the duo ọf Obanikoro and Ogunlewe returning to Tinubu.
However, others who have not returned and are working silently behind the scene, have vowed to cut Tinubu to sizes this time arround even when he has only put one feet forward in his ultimate goal!
Indeed, It is to Ogunlewes credit that the first hint ọf Tinubus presidential ambition became public knowledge last year.
However, Ogbeni Aregbesola,the man who he made Works commissioner in Lagos for eight years and later Osun governor for another eight years is at the arrow head of demystifying Tinubu and erasing his stamp from politics in the region.
Is Tinubu about to
reap what he sew by leading the onslaught to remove Afeniferes influence in SW politics?
But then is Aregbesola too morally upright to take on Tinubu given the fact that he too brook no opposition throughout his eight years in Osun.
Why has Aregbesola himself refused to give Gboyega Oyetola the incumbent Governor, a breathing space since he left Osun for a much juicy Federal minister position in 2019.
If Aregbesola is not keen on replacing himself as SW godfather,why is he keen on fighting on all fronts to install his former Secretary to state government, Moshood Adeoti and deny Oyetola, his godfather’s ‘nephew’ a second term while at the same time also secretly eyeing a Senate seat in Lagos from where he was sent as ‘ajele’ to Osun in 2010?.
For Aregbesola who appears to have assigned himself the arrow head ọf Tinubus demystification in SW, the battle for state of Osun is also a do or diẹ warfare for him as his pronouncements have shown that hẹ is on the verge of political extinction.
With his defeat at his polling unit of Ifofin Ward 8,Ilesa where Oyetola polled 309 votes to defeat Adeoti ,his candidate who polled 146 votes ,it is clear he has been defeated at his doorstep.
What is more, the overall result which gave overwhelming victory to Oyetola having won in all the thirty local government areas scoring a total of 222,169 votes against Adeotis 12,921 and the third contestant Hon Lasun who polled 460 votes.
He has sent a strong signal that the end is near for Aregbesola and his supporters.
Although,his aides claimed the elections were rigged,it is apparent that knowing fully well that the structure of the party in the state is in the hands of state governors,he must have another truck up his sleeve to revenge outside of the APC since Oyetola would carry it’s flag.
What is now apparent is Aregbesola will carry out his last card by playing the spoiler role by ensuring his supporters vote for another party in the real governorship election. But then that too is neither here not there as the party in power too has what it takes to gain as they did with PDP opposition bigwigs during the 2018 elections which threw up Oyetola.
As things stand today it is a dicey game both for Aregbesola and Tinubu though the later has an edge of incumbency which could also be retained or lost after serious negotiation with the opposition.
Aregbesola should not be expected to lose out of contention easily like that and this is where Tinubu too cannot go to sleep after Oyetolas victory.
Win or loose,Aregbesola too has a redeeming worth.
This is because he has vowed to stop Oyetola in his track for a second term and also remove footprint ọf Tinubu in the state.
Indeed,for both Tinubu and Aregbesola this year and next appears to be a determining factor in their political life.
If Tinubu succeeded in getting Oyetola have his second term ticket and go on to win reelection, both him and Oyetola would have permanently bury Aregbesola in Osun politics but if the reverse is the case and Aregbesola is able to successfully play the spoiler by getting the opposition to vote against Oyetola, Tinubu too should count his days of relevance in SW politics as Osun beside Lagos, appears to be his only sure bet of complete loyalty among the six states.
Tinubu himself saw the titanic battle ahead of him when he declared during his Aso Rock declaration conference that he has always been prepared to receive darts,abuses,back stabbing and accusations from loyalists and haters alike .
In short,he explained he is a long distance runner.
Will he survive this onslaught from his ‘home’ state even when budding politician, Jide Adediran,aka Jandor,once one ọf the irrepressible APC youths from Lagos,his strongest base, has also pitched his tent with opposition PDP to stop hmTinubus reign in the state ọf aquartic and indeed financial splendour.
However,all the above war within Tinubus home base may pale into insignificance if he is able to win back his base before the presidential primaries considering the wars he has to fight in the far North where his awesome political machinery and strategy is acknowledged by core Northerners who fears that giving power to a Southern politician of his political and financial muscle may sign a death knell to their manipulations.
As for them, holding the APC machinery in the North’s pocket could only be complemented by a politically ‘weak’ Southern candidate probably in the mould of a Vice President Yemi Osinbajo.
This, they reasoned will help them checkmate such a Southern president who will rely on them for holding the party in the region and by extension the nation together.
But will the increasing acceptance and popularity of Osinbajo not be turned into another awesome machinery if he wins the presidency considering the favours he can suspense with such office?
As things stand today, decision of President Buharis who appears to be playing on time to delay the APC national convention ostensibly to get the party consider a consensus arrangement will determine the fate of both Tinubu,Aregbesola and other political desperadoes in the party.
The next few months will be interesting times for Tinubu,his political disciples and politics in the region known for its sophistication and history of political backstabbing and betrayals.
