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It could be dubbed the campaign before the real campaign. This is because it has thrown up issues which could make or mar the ruling party the All Peoples Congress, APC.
The decision of Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu,a former Lagos state governor and leader of the APC, to jump into the APC presidential nomination campaign train ahead of others if the APC convention eventually holds, has predictably thrown up old issues in politics of the country, stirred up emotions but undeniably raised the profile of his mentee and vice president, Professor Yemi Osinbajo.
The vice President who hitherto is regarded as an underdog both in the Presidency he has served in the last seven years,and in the politics of his party, is now seen as a main factor in Tinubus life- long ambition as he himself claim.
It won’t even be wrong to say that Tinubus early declaration of intent was meant to test sincererity of President Muhammadu Buharis alleged ‘pact’with him in 2015 .
The seeming cold attitude of the later to keep, has inadvertently thrown up vice president Osibajo hitherto considered a lame duck comparable to his mentor.
But then, the declaration of former Niger state governor,Babangida Aliyu,an opposition PDP member that presidency is not for ‘sale’ to Tinubu is note worthy and instructive.
He also push the stakes further as he openly declared support for Osinbajo and told Tinubu that APC would only get his money and use for Osinbajos election.
He went ahead to ask his fellow Northerners to do so .
If you think his behaviour and declaration is strange go back to history and study the political motto of defunct Northern People’s Congress,NPC, the party of the North in the first republic led by the late Sir Ahmadu Bello -One North,One people.
In other words, Aliyu confirm the irreducible common interest of the North when it concerns it’s relationship to the Southern part of the country on the control of power in Nigeria. Recall,they voted MKO Abiola in 1993, but we’re unanimous in supporting IBBs Interim National Government,ING when the election was annulled.
Again, when General Sanni Abacha took power, they rallied round him,until his government got terminated by death even though during his tenure, the country was reduced to a a pariah nation.
In spite of his mistakes and style,they stood by his actions ostensibly to preserve the North’s common interest.
Similarly,when they threw up then former military head of state, Olusegun Obasanjo during the transition programme of Abachas successor, General Abdusalam Abubakar,General Yakubu Danjuma ,one of the arrow heads of the July 29,1966 counter- coup that retaliated Nzeogwus failed revolution which inadvertently killed notable Northern leaders, told a bewildered country that the North would determine who to give power to among the two Yoruba contestants,Olu Falae and Olusegun Obasanjo.
He did not stop at that,he personally donated a huge sum of money and threatened to go on exile if Obasanjo is not allowed to rule.
To the North, Obasanjo and not the Yoruba socio cultural group Afenifere or National Democratic Coalition,NADECO sponsored Olu Falae is North’s preference.
Now, Aliyu, El Rufai,Kaduna state governor and other notables who are not on same page politically are uniting in Norths common interest to tell Tinubu he is not their favourite. While President Muhammadu Buhari is silently watching the scenario and aside from his ‘veiled’ declaration of his unknown successor in waiting, the party caretaker committee is clandestinely plotting to ‘undermine’ the February 26 national convention to suit Buharis game plan of either an indirect primary or a concensus candidacy during the party’s presidential primary.
This option may seem difficult in view of APCs polarisation both among members and the state governors.
But the earlier option could still be managed by Buharis handlers to enable him have his way.
Curiously, it is at this period that Osinbajo as vee pee is shuttling from one official assignment in the North to another even as his ‘mentor’Tinubu is also criss- crossing the same region, a region which political leaders have said, is the kingmaker in Nigerias politics contrary to Tinubus claims.
True to type,five days after making his declaration and asserting his kingmakers status,the Northern Elders Forum, met in Kaduna, capital of the North and declared that contrary to Tinubus claims,the North remains the kingmaker in who rules Nigeria.
Hear
Ango Abdullahi,a former Ahmadu Bello University vice chancellor and the convener of the forum , “I heard that somebody was saying he’s the kingmaker and now wanted to be King. Is not that I want to be seen to be arrogant but the North has always been the kingmaker.”
Ango’s boastful claims reinforced Danjumas declaration in 1998 that the North determines who rules and they eventually did by putting Obasanjo in power.
Though, a lot have since changed between now and then,Tinubus claim of kingmaker with the passage of time, is neither empty nor without bite.
In 2011, he got the South West to vote for Goodluck Jonathan to retain the Presidency even when Nuhu Ribadu was nominated by Tinubus Action Congress of Nigeria,ACN to contest against Jonathan.
Jonathan with South West vote defeated Ribadu.
It will be recalled that when Atiku Abubakar earlier contested under same ACN platform in 2007 against the late Musa Yaradus,the former had the votes of the South West though the later won.
In 2015,during the primaries of the newly formed APC,Tinubu rallied round the South West delegates and some parts of the North to vote Buhari and defeat Atiku and Senator Rabiu Kwakwanso both Northerners.
He went on further to get the South West block votes for Buhari in the presidential election.
Before then,Buharis block vote has been restricted to both North West and North East geo -political zone and not until when Tinubu got the South West support for him in 2015 could he realise his ambition after three failed attempts.From whatever pint you look at it,Tinubu made kings.
In the light of the foregoing, Is the North’s claim to almighty kingmaker tenable ?
What a Tinubu or Southern candidate needs to defeat Angos claim is a unity of sort among SW,SE,SS and North Central majority votes and Fulanis North stranglehold from it’s two zones will be broken.
Curiously,anywhere Osinbajo went in the last two weeks to either represent his boss, the President,or perform one function or the other, he has been receiving rousy welcome both by politicians and influential traditional rulers seen as power brokers in the North.
This is indeed,the campaign before the real campaign.
The level of frenzy since Tinubu throw his hat into the ring is such that like him or hate him,he has become the issue in 2023 politics,entrance of another APC chieftain from the South East, Senator Uzor Orji Kalu nothwithstanding.
Hence,Tinubus claim to be political kingmaker in South West is without doubt considering his role in the election of governors from Ekiti,Ondo,Oyo,Osun and Ogun.
But then, his attitude when Fulani herdsmen and bandits wreck havoc in the region since year 2000 speaks volume of the role of a kingmaker who abandons his people.
Not a word of consolation came when Igangan, Sunday Igbohos town in Oyo North was under Fulani herdsmen siege nor their wanton destruction of properties in Ibadan settlement leading to loss of billions of naira. Besides,the raging insecurity was also by his Yoruba kinsmen . Yet no word of symphathy or consolation came from Tinubu.
Instead, he went up North and donated N50 million to Northerners who lost property in Oyo state and none to his own kinsmen…. To say charity begins at home is alien to Tinubu.
Kingmakers in his native Yorubaland normally rallied their subjects to elect and support kings.
It is doubtful whether Tinubu still hopes to use same Yoruba he has turned his back on during time of need a territory where his word is law.
How he hopes to retain the capacity to get the block vote if he manages to emerge as Presidential candidate in 2023 is still a mirage inducement nothwithstanding.
Barely, one week after his declaration of intent,he has visited Zamfara and Niger to commiserate with and donate N50million each to the people of the state ravaged by activities of bandits.
A Yoruba adage says,”Eni ti o kodi si ita lati to sinu Ile,yo pada wa je oorun ito re to ba pada sile” meaning ,”He who turns his butomm outside and urinate inside his house,will be greeted by the stench of his urine when he returns home”.
Except the strength of Tinubus kingmakers role does not flow from his South West homestead, it is doubtful whether he can still maintain same firm grip he had before the beginning of Fulani insurgency and insecurity which has thrown up and indeed reinforce Yoruba nationalism.
It is apparent that since the emergence of Yoruba self determination group, Ilana Yoruba headed by renown historian, Professor Banji Akintoye and it’s military wing led by Igboho, who has since become a torn in the flesh of marauding Fulani herders, his current travails nothwithstanding.
Moreover,the growing tendency of moderates in the South West,North,South East and South South, who see Osinbajo as a bridge builder and compromise between the excesses of the Buhari cabal and secessionist agitation, may be all what is needed to defeat Tinubu if and when the APC presidential primary holds later in the year after the February convention of the APC.
It’s a long wait for the various contenders on all fronts!
