Frankly speaking: 2023: The Osinbajo, Tinubu test of strength

By Tunde Abatan,
08165660217
tunde2013abatan@gmail.com

Except a miracle happens and the duo of Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Vice President Yemi Osibajo have a change of mind and one of them steps down his campaign for highest office in the land, it is almost certain they will at one time or the other, now or in the nearest future, lock horns.
This fact was brought to the open weekend when elder statesman and founding member of the elitist northern power house, Arewa Consultative Forum, ACF, Tanko Yakassai, declared his support for Tinubu whom he disclosed has paid him a visit in his Abuja home to seek his support for 2023 Presidential Election.

The import of Yakassai’ declaration of support for Tinubu cannot be lost on the politics of North South divide.

Besides, Yakassai also confirm that Tinubu had, as he did last year when he delivered the Ahmadu Bello leadership lecture in Kaduna, choose to start his consultation for making a bid to the highest position in the land again from the North-often touted as a block, which determines who rules Nigeria.
Tinubu’s style is also a confirmation that rather than start from his homestead, he has effectively endorsed the South West Agenda for Asiwaju, SWAGA group and it’s efforts to campaign for him among the South West political class. To confirm this, Lagos Governor, Babajide Sanwo-Olu’s launch of the SWAGA movement in Lagos is also a demonstration of Tinubu’s ambition.
What is more, that his supporters celebrated his recent trip to United Kingdom was a show of support by his lieutenants who trooped to greet him in all, the frequency of the visit by all and sundry was a surreptitious preparation for the unfolding events of today.
It is a fait accompli that Tinubu has used the period of recuperation more to consult and prepare for his launch for 2023 more than he did for his health condition, which initially gave serious concerns.
Yakassai’s declaration of support for Tinubu having beat his other unknown preference, is also a product of political horse trading, which has been going on between Dr Ganduje, governor of Kano State and Tinubu,where the later’s supporters hope to get ‘ten million” votes to defeat other aspirants.
But then, where does this place Osinbajo who,though, has denied activities of Progressive Support Group,PSG in the All Progressive Congress, APC, which has supported his yet to be declared aspiration?.It is significant that interim leadership of the APC have also acknowledge the existence of PSG as a support group and credible platform.

Those who know Nigeria politics well know that denials of intent by politicians is as close to the real issue and a mark of confirmation of their desire. They double speak at will and pretend as often as it suits their game plan and intrigues.
To push further their support from the inner caucus of Osinbajo,the PSG has opened with fanfare the previous week their Abuja campaign office.
In politics nothing goes for nothing.
As we all know, a Yoruba adage says that the leave that is dancing on the surface of water,the drummer is beneath…it is apparent now except to the blind that SWAGA and PSG had their drummers beneath the water.
While the SWAGA drummer has tactically been unveiled by his by- standers and he steadily and subtly dancing to their drum beats,the PSG drummers are entrenched in the APC hierarchy as the party caretaker committee chairman,Mai Mala Buni,governor of Yobe State still holds the lever of the party and dictates the dance tunes of the PSG .This style is obvious as Osinbajo for tactical reasons and respect to his boss,will still play the game from behind the scene and apply the lever when necessary.
It is also clear that except a new candidate emerges from the North to run shoulder with Osinbajo for Bunis group in the APC support, it is crystal clear,the party may divide along the line among those who support Tinubu and Osinbajo if and when it eventually had it’s twice postponed national convention next year.
With the firm grip on APCs structures at the national level by the Buni led committee,and the support of a strong group from the North, the Tinubu crowd, which started it’s loss of grip with Comrade Adams Oshiomole’s defeat last year may have to go back to work to reposition the ground it has lost to Buni’s victory at the court, which upheld his continuos party leadership. This is, however, not to foreclose the support and activities of the House of Representatives caucus from the North, which also paid a solidarity visit to Tinubu in London.