By Tunde Abatan
tunde2013abatan@gmail.com,08165660217
United States Secretary of state,Anthony Blinken declaration in a Channels Television interview programme last week to all intent and purposes is a homily of sort to executors of Nigerias fledgling democracy about how they could,if they so will, conduct themselves as the country prepare for the 2023 general elections just 15 months away.
His homilies is remarkable not because this is the first time Nigeria is conducting election in her 61 years of independence, but because it is an election perceived by both internal and external observers as representing demonstration of willingness or otherwise of the disposition of those in power and their ability to pursue and embrace respect for democratic ethos and values.
It is also significant because the daring speech by Blinken,the State Secretary of a country still perceived as the policeman of the world,is a warning signal in deed to a government that has in its six years of ruling did the opposite of Change mantra on which sing -song it rode into power.
Buhari
Blinkens disclosure of America’s anticipation of a nation which will embrace free,fair and participatory election to demonstrate democratic resilience is both thought provoking and signal of probables should the opposite be the case in 2023 .
Though,as with previous elections, elections in Nigeria have always been a war affair with combatants in fear and foul spirit, the forthcoming elections is potentially a make or mar exercise judging by the subjugation of democratic ethos , principles and institutions both at party and inter party levels to serve ethno religious divide in the past six years . It is remarkable because of what is expected of this government which came on the Change mantra. It is quite apparent that the ruling government at all levels which have subjugated all institutions of state in the country and virtually reversed cherished ethos.
Perhaps all this discomfiture prompted Blinken to express hope of perceived willingness of President Muhammadu Buhari to respect term limits.
As for him,respecting term limits,a policy which observance has been on the popular decline in Africa of recent,is powerful and thought provoking enough.
Thus,seven clear issues are contained in Blinkens speech which unless treated with caution and strict observance may yet dim Nigeria and indeed the democratic worlds hope of a country ready to play a leading role in Africa’s democratic emergence and by inference fatherly role in Africa. It is a statement of fact that neighbouring Ghana has undeniably ‘snatched’ this position by its resilience to democratic ethos over the past three decades.
American flag
Firstly,on the intra party level,will the All People’s Congress,APC,the ruling party which brought Buhari to power be courageous enough to respect it’s own rules by allowing internal democracy to flourish in it’s intra party system of conducting elections? Ditto to all the other opposition parties.
Secondly,will the federal government and President Buhari restore confidence in good governance by treating all parts of the country fair and square even when such parts contributed an insignificant vote for his emergence?
Will Buhari be ready to give good governance on merit and for all concerned as opposed to dispensing governance based on ethno- religious and patronages which remains the biggest fault lines of his six years government.
Will the rules of engagement in fighting corruption be observed only for supporters and decampees from other parties?
As remarked by Blinken, this fundamental draw back of Buharis government is the reasons why”citizens are loosing faith in some places in democracy and institutions because they feel it is not actually producing things that they need,that they want ,that will make a difference in their lives”.
He went further by hitting the nail on the head by saying that Nigeria is one of the countries where everything is done by patronages.
Except this issues are avoided,it is quite clear people cannot feel belonged.
Could Buhari make a U turn at the zenith of his tenure and be fair to all and sundry.
it is doubtful whether he could, given the deliberate distribution and concentration of sensitive security offices like Armed forces,Immigration,
Police,Security services,Customs on ethno- religious basis. This is purely based on intended goals and aspirations.
If it is difficult to observe above ,could he like Blinken proffer,offer and attract Trust from the citizenry?.
It is quite obvious that those on the International scene uncover lack of this basic issue in governance.
In essence,lack of trust by citizens in Nigerias governance has been identified and accepted as source of our instability.
This obviously prompted Americas and by inference other world powers fear about 2023 and it’s far reaching consequences for Africa should it fail?
Could the pitfalls already planted by unfair distribution of offices,headship of sensitive important positions deliberately skewed in favour of the Northern moslem part of the country ensure fairness, equity and justice.?
Could the gestapo tactics employed in harrasing and removing non compliant judicial officers in potential cases bring about equity in a multi- ethnic, multi -religious and multi-racial country which is currently facing the biggest threat to its existence by forces not happy with the forced union.
Yes, in spite of the fact that America is convinced and aware that, “what happens in Nigeria is felt around the world” ,could it prevail on Buharis government which has in the past six years done the reverse of giving fairness, equity and justice to its diverse people with no signs of respite even when the government is at its twilight to respect this virtues ?
Would Blinken admittance that the need to address above issues is one of the reasons he came to Nigeria,be heeded by those advising Buhari?.
Would the ethno/religious centric and powerful cabal which has held him hostage, oblivious of the diverse forces which brought him to power and be reasonable enough to admit that no conqueror can endure in a fledgling democracy like Nigeria?
Would Buhari and his corterie of religious adventurists accept the need to sustain the secularity of Nigeria for it’s continued existence especially when they have succeeded in concentrating state powers,positions and institutions in such a way to impose their religious bigotry?
Will they also agree that inability to curb religious insurgency and self determination groups is as a result of absolute concentration and monopoly of power by an ethno religious group holding the nation by the jugular using state institutions?
It is quite apparent that state institutions have been reduced to pandering to ethno religious operations and policies?
Will Buhari agree on the need to allow non state actors like Civil society groups which Blinken mentioned, enough freedom to exercise their rights in a free society?
Without sounding immodest,to allay America and the outside world fears about a failed 2023 transition election and consequences for Nigeria and West Africa sub region, it is doubtful whether Buhari will have enough courage and capacity to turn full circle in his policies and appointments. This attitude if not changed would undermine free and fair election and by far democracy and endeared internal stability in worlds biggest black nation.
The clock ticks for Buhari to use his remaining days to change the dangerous course of history which as his policies has been used to undermine democracy.
Time will Tell.
