By Tunde Abatan
Ordinarily,discussing about the various permutations and maneuver’s prelude to the 2023 general elections is fraught with many uncertainties. Uncertainties not only because of the fluidity of Nigeria’s often contrived electoral process ,but because of the Time factor which determines all things.
Besides, with 26 months to the next Presidential elections,it is often wise except to the unrepentant optimist, to be measured in such analysis because as they say in politics,especially Nigeria’s sinking ground,twenty four hours is too short for dramatic changes to occur.
Buhari
Yobe gov and APC interim chair
Umahi, Ebonyi gov
However,since discussions and intrigues about the 2023 presidential elections has become a sort of wilful distraction by our political class and ruling government ostensibly to sway the populace facing critical socioeconomic economic issues like Security and bitting economy triggered in itself by lack of focus on the part of federal government,it is only normal to take a curious look at the maneuvers of men of the political class who have albeit choose to play chess game on the lives of it’s ‘conquered’ citizenry.
On this score, several personalities by their declarations and statements have provided a direction of what is likely to be a bitter contest for the soul of Nigeria if 2023 eventually arrives.
Not surprisingly,the war of attrition has centred on three corners in the nations political equilibrium.
The South West flank of the All Progressive Congress(APC) ,ostensibly been championed by Works minister,Babatunde Raji Fashola who is leading a tendency of the party from the region,Governor El Rufai of Kaduna state who has been struggling with himself to demystify former Lagos Governor,Asiwaju Bola Tinubu with obvious support of some ‘rebels’from the zone among which include Governor Kayode Fayemi of Ekiti state rumoured to be surreptitiously nursing a presidential ambition and of course radical lawyer,Muiz Banire who though discipled by Tinubu,has confronted the latter’s leadership style and dominance.
On the third flank of APCs distractive tendency to shift the attention of the country’s away from serious issue is the Judaic role now being actively played by Governor David Umahi of Ebonyi state,perhaps the smallest of South East states who have jumped ship to the ruling APC from the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).
Umahi ,who serially complained of being marginalised and unfairly treated in the scheme of things by Uche Secondus,the national Chairman and Governor Nyesome Wike led PDP leadership.
But Umahi revealed his innermost intention rather too early by also surreptitiously nursing a presidential and vice presidential ambition to( as they normally claim ),’return Igbo to the mainstream of national politics’ .whether he could gather enough strength and ostensibly emerged the South east candidate to realise the zones age- long cry of Presidency remains to be seen.
Perhaps his move and that of others like senator Kalu,former governor of Imo state just released from incarceration who is also leading another tendency from the south east.
They are all loudly drumming support in a bid to satisfy Northerners who feel Igbo’s cannot stay in and vote from an opposition party to rule the nation.
As things stand today, before Umahis decamp only Imo state is in the hand of APC. Though,it also remains to be seen whether the south east electorate will vote for the APC seen as belonging to another political tendency they are traditionally use to support from the north or even vote any party which did not present its son as presidential candidate.
Besides,traditionally,South east is naturally inclined to northern conservatives since the first republic days and it is doubtful whether on account of President Muhammad Buharis attitude to and perceived ‘hatred’ or acclaimed marginalisation of the zone in spite of road projects like Second Niger Bridge, could sway the electorate to the ruling APC side, the governors decampment notwithstanding.
Would the North be strategic and trusting enough to give its support and backing for a south east presidential candidate irrespective of whichever political party is bold enough to field a south east candidate.
Yet, on another score,Governor Mattawale of Zamfara states justification of what he described as the hostility of south- south governors who are all ensconced in PDP to its governors from the North may be another strategic move by PDP governors to join the APC even if to slight the South south governors who it claimed had hijacked the party from it.
Zailan Bappa,his Special assistant on media said in a press statement that the extent of bad blood in the was partly responsible for Governor Umahis defection to the ruling APC.
However,the latest efforts by some of the APC and PDP governors from the northern part of the country to woo former president Goodluck Jonathan to the APC and ostensibly contest the 2023 elections to complete his zones second term is also curious.
It is curious because the North was the arrow head of campaign against the reelection of Jonathan in 2015.So what has changed to warrant his choice?
Is it to enable the North retain the power and deny SW tendency seen as likely stumbling block to North’s bid to retain power?
But the question remains,would their interest(the decamping SE governors) be the same when they all jumped ship to the APC a parry which is now becoming a behemoth which in that case,could be a ready instrument by the North to retain power in whatever way it turns out.
But more crucial to the fate of the APC in the coming months is the ability of 53 years old Governor Mai Malla Buni of Yobe state to hold the APC together.Buni today is the caretaker committee chairman of the party after the aggrieved governors have pushed aside former Governor Adams Oshiomole from the APC chair prelude to the Edo governorship elections .
Though,eventually the party lost the state,yet Governor Godwin Obaseki who with the help of his APC colleagues retired his former benefactor,is ostensibly hiding his time to rub the back of those who helped him from inside APC to retain his seat through PDP.
The biggest task for Buni is thus how far he is able to keep the APC house united with his apparent inability to hold a national convention obviously for the tendencies created on account of his emergence prior to Edo governorship election.
That he now have to woo many beautiful brides in the mould of late statesman Dr Nnamdi Azikwe from the south east to retain power in the North by the APC tendency he belongs is also his biggest test.
But the declaration of Works Minister,Babatunde Raji Fashola(SAN), Tuesday November 24,that the APC should respect its agreed zoning formula when he led 8 others to clubbed together the APC in 2014 is by far the most far reaching statement of intent from the south west APC intent of taking over power from President Buhari who though has kept his personal opinion on the matter of who succeeds him close to his chest.
Yet, the deepening of his governance structure and command to favour the North amid boastings of hirelings and ethnic supporters speaks volume of his direction.
Fashola,who is not giving to frivolities declared that though the issue of zoning is not in the nations constitution but cautioned that,”there was an agreement at inception on zoning which should be honoured”.
Said he,”the truth is that what makes an agreement spectacular is the honour in which it is written.If it was written in there would be no court case of breach of contract because it is a document that is written and signed that goes to court.”
He however,declared that,”the private agreement you make with your brother and sister should not be breached,it must be honoured”.
Fashola is not a small fry and his advocacy this time is not without fire burning beneath. If you like, say that the leave that is dancing on the surface,has its drummers beneath the water.
With hirelings and ethnic supporters of pro- North 2023 presidency dancing to every move of President Buhari,it is apparent that the APC house put together by Fashola on that fateful day in 2014 when he and eight others launched the progressive governors forum which gave birth to APC which succeeded in wrestling power from PDP is aching seriously and suffering internal hemorrhage.
While Tinubu has remained quite as a result of the aftermath of EndSARS crisis and Lagos huge loss,travails of some of his aides like Babatunde Fowler,the former Federal Internal Revenue boss,the Lagos crisis being promoted by opposition within and without, the Alpha Beta issue and the insecurity of South west which is being laid at his doorstep as a result of inability to openly condemn the weak attitude of President Buhari are deep issues which may not be shoved aside when his control over APC leadership already hijacked by those oppose to his ambition .
What is more, the recent move by President Buhari to have a new membership registration for the APC in all the 35 states of the country is also seen as a subtle move by the President to take control of the party from behind in order for him to have his way when issue of his succession comes up later.
It is obviously in this regard that Tinubu allegedly dispatched former APC interim chairman, Chief Bisi Akande,former Ogun State governor,Chief Olusegun Osoba,Tajudeen Olusi,SW deputy national chairman of APC and Dr Abayomi Finnih ,to Buhari on diplomatic fence mending two weeks ago.
Though,the team have refused to make open their discussions,such it was gathered, is not unconnected with the party structure in the states and the need for Buhari to allow Tinubu have a breathing space from the party at a time the local opposition in the region and those from other regions who want to profit from undermining influence of Tinubu in the SW and by extension, the influence of Yoruba SW which galvanised victory for Buhari in 2015 after three previous attempts.
Though,neither President Buhari nor the elders who approached him have come out to reveal the discussions,if it is true that the elders have broached the issue of Restructuring an issue which was used to canvass for SW support for Buhari in 2015 was part of the issue raised in the secret meeting ,then it is apparent they are responding to the political temperament in the South West which region has felt let down after five years of Buharis presidency.
Although,Kaduna state governor,Nasir El Rufai,who was the chairman of the party’s restructuring committee which tabled its paper to the President since 2018,has been speaking of late on need for Restructuring,fears are that this may be another grand plan by his tendency in the APC to get the peoples support when the issue of picking a candidate is tabled.
Yet,he has also spoken of need to allow Presidency to go South, yet the other tendency in the party opposed to Nasir’s choice,are also busy perfecting how to make a beautiful bride of the SE leaders especially the governors who are more inclined to get the presidency on whatever structure it is given than Restructuring.
As things stands today,the SE and SS remains the poaching ground for the Northern irredentists in the APC who obviously have the ears of Buhari as an alternative to the SW which to all intents and purpose may not welcome any position except the Presidency with its experience over the years- a position which the North with its shifting attitude since 1959 is not likely to let go.
Will the SE learn from its experience in the first and second republics when the alliance and accord late Dr Nnamdi Azikwes National Council of Nigerian Citizens(NCNC) and later Nigeria Peoples Party (NPP) had with both Northern Peoples Congress(NPC) and National Party of Nigeria(NPN) which ended barely half way to the tenure of the respective governments due to breach in agreement and deep seated suspicions on power sharing.
As for the SW,will the regional APC be able to retain its control of the electorate whichever of its divided tendencies have an upper hand when the issue of Presidency is determined considering SW deeply sophisticated political attitude in face of emerging realities of the past five years of Buhari Presidency?.
What is more,the result of by-elections in some states and national assemblies shows two tendencies at play:That the APC and PDP can win their strongholds in SW (Lagos) and Plateau and PDP in cross Rivers is an indication that the parties are still strong but what will happen when it concerns Presidential elections under three years time is an issue which will be determined by many factors…..state of the nations economy,national security and cohesiveness of the dominant parties of which the APC is more at risk.
