The Peoples Democratic Party, (PDP) has picked Jimi Agbaje as its flagbearer. In this piece Moshood Adewale examines the prospect and odds of the three-time aspirant in the next gubernatorial race.
The Jolly Good Fellow of Lagos politics, Olujimi Kolawole Agbaje, a pharmacist, will now fly the Lagos flag of the Peoples Democratic, Party, (PDP) gubernatorial election slated for February next year. Agbaje emerged last week as the man expected to give the toughest fight to the ruling All Progressives Congress, (APC) which tendency has been in power in Lagos since 1999. No fewer than 40 political parties will field candidates in Nigeria’s most prosperous state of over 18 million people.
Agbaje scored 1,100 votes against his rival, Mr Deji Doherty who scored 724. Both are from Lagos Island, the constituency from where the All Progressives Congress, (APC) picked her candidate, Mr Babajide Sanwo-Olu.
The Chairman of the PDP National Working Committee, (NWC) on Lagos election, Victor Oyofo said the PDP primary election was free and fair.
“We are sure of victory in the next election. The odds favour the PDP” Agbaje told party supporters after his visit to the PDP secretariat in Lagos. He will be contesting for the third time since 2006 when he launched his political career in the defunct Action Congress, (AC). Agbaje, 61, is the Managing Director of JayKay Pharmaceutical and Company.
Agbaje said there was the need to reclaim Lagos. ‘There is need for us to free Lagos from the disease that had affected it. In few weeks, I will be explaining that, but the state is seriously infected by a disease,’he said.
PDP’s hope of feeding on a potential crack in the APC did not come to pass in Lagos. The winner of the APC primary, Mr Babajide Sanwo-Olu was congratulated by the incumbent, Mr Akinwumi Ambode shortly after the initially disputed primary putting a stop to what was expected to have strengthened the PDP.
In 2015, Agbaje’s outing appeared to be his brightest since 2006 when he led the PDP to a second place in the gubernatorial election losing to the incumbent APC candidate, Akinwunmi Ambode. In 2006, he had contested the primary in the then Action Congress, (AC) but lost to Babatunde Fasola. He left the AC and became the Democratic Peoples Alliance(DPA) gubernatorial candidate in Lagos. He lost on DPA platform.
Observers think Agbaje has his strong points. He comes from a humble background, his father being one of the earliest second generations of Lagos business men from the ruling Onilegbale royal bloc in down town Lagos.
He is also a member of Afenifere, the Yoruba socio-cultural group. “Agbaje has a reputation for being honest, humble and affectionate. He has no cross of corruption hanging on his shoulders and he blends with all the social and cultural trends in Lagos,” Mr Kola Are, a businessman and Agbaje’s supporter told Newdawn. He said Agbaje has earned for himself the reputation of a “decent politician” who stands on a higher moral ground.
Agbaje is also expected to be a key beneficiary of the bourgeoning opposition at the national level. With the emergence of Abubakar Atiku as the PDP Presidential candidate, supported by a retinue of networks including but not limited to Northern conservative blocs, and its retired top military echelons, backed with immense financial muzzle, the contest for Lagos is expected to attract meddlesome political interests. With a voting strength of over six million, Lagos is top on the list trailed by Kano State.
“Lagos will reap from the fallout of the crisis in APC”, an official of the party who does not wish to be named told Newdawn. He said with the results of the elections in Osun and Ekiti States where the APC won by little margins even when it controls the Federal government, the results of the election in Lagos remains unpredictable.
Some also argue that Lagos may suffer vote fatigue, having being voting for the same political trend since 1999, there may be the natural urge to opt for a new party even when it is clear the option may not be the best in the circumstance.
But in politics, the index for measuring success varies from one state to the other. There are many odds against the PDP candidate. Critics of Agbaje point to his promiscuous political history which seems to portray him as looking for just any platform to realize his ambition. In the period between 2006 and 2018, he was sighted in different colours of at least three political parties, the latest being the PDP.
“We are not even sure if he would have decamped had he lost the PDP primary”, says Femi Ajayi, the Publicity Secretary of South West Progressives Youth Movement, (SWPYM) a group sympathetic to the APC.
Though Agbaje is a member of Afenifere, but critics point to the declining influence of the age-long Yoruba group and its flirtation with the PDP which questions the group’s loyalty to Yoruba interests beyond partisan political games.
Najeem Adebayo, an official of the Afenifere Renewal Group, (ARG) in Osun state told Newdawn that the older Afenifere has become a ‘tool in the hands of vested interests’ adding that the group’s blind support for the ousted former President Goodluck Jonathan had raised fundamental issues about Afenifere’s meritorious ideal.
Beyond the suspicions, Afenifere, apart from its media blitz seems to be totally irrelevant to the average Yoruba person on the street when it comes to giving electoral directives. Though the group supported the PDP in 2015, the defeat of the party in the entire South West, its primeval home, suggested Afenifere’s waning treasures.
Agbaje also has another big cross on his shoulders, some analyst argue pointing to his 2015 sectional romance with the non-indigenous Lagos population in what appears a desperate race for power even at the expense of the traditional forces in Lagos.
In 2015 for instance, sources said spirited efforts were made by the Igbo population to produce the Deputy Governor under the PDP led by Agbaje in Lagos a development that irked customary institutions. Though the PDP did not eventually field an Igbo candidate, but the harm was done already.
Again, the PDP appears to have lost some of its most outstanding political icons chief of who was Mr. Musiliu Obanikoro who fielded as the PDP gubernatorial candidate in 2015. Again, Lagos is reputed for its ritual of progressive politics dating back to the 19th century. From 1999, the state has been controlled by only one political bloc and there appears the preponderance of opinions that the state has performed far more than many of her peers.
“There is no point changing a winning team. Lagos APC is the darling of the people. The team has been in power from 1999. There is a masterplan. Lagos is the envy of the world. You can see that when Presidents of other countries visit Nigeria, after Abuja, the next place is Lagos. This confirms the undisputed place of Lagos in Nigeria. Thanks to the progressives led by Asiwaju Ahmed Tinubu” Otunba Adeleye Akintola, leader of the Asiwaju Grassroots Movement, (AGRM) told Newdawn. He said the 2019 election will be fought keenly and that at the end, APC will emerge victorious. As it is, there are at least five more months to have a clearer picture of who the victor will eventually be in Lagos.
