Moshood Adeoye
The APC faces a wave of internal dispute ahead of the 2019 Presidential poll. Moshood Adeoye examines the implication of the bitter feud on the chances of the party in the South West, one of its traditional homesteads.
In the midst of what critics see as the declining fortunes of the All Progressives Congress, (APC), the most outstanding political figure in the Yoruba SW, Asiwaju Ahmed Tinubu told a huge audience of party faithful last week that he would deliver the entire Yoruba SW to his party, the APC. Asiwaju spoke at a meeting of party faithful held in Lagos. This must have been a bitter salvo for the opposition in the usually tempestuous region.
In recent weeks, there have been terrifying maelstroms that appear to crack the once united APC front. Three governors threw their brooms into the trash bin and adopted new symbols of the People’s Democratic Party, (PDP). The Senate President Olubukola Abubakar Saraki who rose on the ladder of the APC to emerge, left the party.
Earlier, the Governor of Sokoto State, Aminu Tambuwal, Kwara State counterpart Abdulfathat Ahmed and Benue State Governor, Samuel Ortom had bid APC final goodbye.
“This is not a decision that I have made lightly. If anything at all, I have tarried for so long and did all that was humanly possible, even in the face of great provocation, ridicule and flagrant persecution, to give opportunity for peace, reconciliation and harmonious existence,” Saraki said in a statement after his exit. The Senate President also cited “a government within a government” as part of the reasons why he left.
Others who also decamped were a former National Chairman of the PDP, Barnabas Gemade; a former governor of Kano State, Rabiu Kwankwaso; Senator Dino Melaye and a former Nigeria’s Ambassador to South Africa, Alhaji Ahmed Ibeto.
The fisticuffs were trailed by the defection of scores of members of the House of Representatives to the PDP. The number of Senators that joined the PDP is also in two digits. As at press time, the stalemate in the National Assembly remains unresolved. There has been a string of counter cross carpeting in the PDP to the APC, the most priced figure being the former Governor of Akwa Ibom State, Godswill Akpabio who had met the President in London during his recent vacation in London. A Senator in Ekiti, Raji Rasaki also decamped to the APC, the most significant harvest in the SW.
The crisis continues to rage at the National Assembly. While Saraki said he could not be impeached, the newly elected APC Chairman and labour leader, Adams Oshimhole insisted the removal of Saraki using democratic means was a matter of time.
For many observers, the festering wound in the APC which was indeed some bottle-up disenchantment is as old as the first day President Buhari resumed. Members of the opposition believe the recent loss of key figures to the PDP will weaken the APC stronghold in the South West where the Vice President, Prof Yemi Osinbajo comes from and therefore tilt the overall outcome against Buhari.
The SW is home to the second largest number of voters in the range of 14 million trailing the North West with no fewer than 18 million registered voters. Apart from the North East, South West is the next beautiful bride.
The South West largely has seen a voting tradition that defines the solidarity and shared ancestry of the people. As at early this year, the number of voters as released by Independent Electoral Commission, (INEC) were: South South – 10, 676,95, South East – 8,146, 833, South West – 14, 220, 569, North East – 9, 325,647, North Central – 11,157, 988, North West – 18, 033, 850.
The PDP on the other hand is set to double its flirtation in the SW region. “We are sure the PDP will cause a serious upset in the South West in 2019” says the party’s National spokesperson, Mr Kola Ologbodiyan. PDP chieftains in the South West have continued to exploit the defection to the brim. The Ekiti State Governor, Mr Ayodele Fayose said the party would create a paradigm shift in the entire SW landscape. This was before the July 14 election which the PDP lost. Other events suggest the PDP victory in the SW is not given. While it is true the APC had suffered setbacks, its total annihilation remains a mirage.
For instance, while the gale of defections came in the midst of the Ekiti election, the APC still emerged, though narrowly, victorious beating the PDP with over 19,000 votes, perhaps the narrowest in the country’s recent history of electoral contest.
Thought the APC appears wrecked with the number of defectors, the party, says Asiwaju has used the Ekiti election to prove that it would beat PDP to a retreat in the 2019 poll. Asiwaju said “ When we went to Ekiti, we brought the Governor.”
Though a number of other factors have cast some doubt on the party’s invincibility in the South West. Though the party won the Ekiti election, the margin was meager indicating that the APC needs to buckle up.
At the federal level, the party has been met with stiff challenges undermining its initial popularity which many think will trickle down public perception in the South West. The party rose to stardom on three planks: job creation, security and anti-corruption. However, as soon as the APC breasted the tap, the naira fell into an all-time low.
Scarcity of foreign exchange nosedived the economy into a near shipwreck. Many factories were compelled to close down. Workers were retrenched. About 24 states of the federation are in one form of areas of workers’ pay. The dreaded Boko Haram may have been severed, but the potency to cause havoc has not been diminished
In Zamfara State alone, last week the Secretary to the Government, Prof Abdullahi Shinkafi said about 3000 lives have been lost to banditry. On Sunday, a Catholic Priest, Micheal Akawu was killed in Gwahwalada, a satellite town in Abuja. In Ekiti State, Ogun and some parts of Oyo state conflict with herdsmen has seen scores of deaths.
Challenges have been compounded by herdsmen killings while in the realm of campaign against graft, critics accuse the government of playing the ostrich.
Elections have also seen dots of ugly incidences. Last week, Fayose said President Buhari was driving the country to electoral chaos. In a statement last week, his media aide, Lere Olayinka said the FG invaded Ekiti with over 50,000 security operatives, though how the ‘invasion’ influenced the outcome of the election has not been established. The question remains: How will the contradictions affect Buhari’s chances in the South West?
Some references may help. While Buhari has been attacked for failing to meet promises, some analysts contend that his government remains fundamentally better compared with the past regime of the PDP. Two weeks ago, Presidential spokesperson, Femi Adesina listed a retinue of atrocious security lapses under the ousted President Goodluck Jonathan blaming him for laying the foundation for the current situation in the first place. The Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, (EFCC) Acting Chairman Ibrahim Magu said the government has recovered illicit funds more than any previous governments have done.
Perhaps, the APC strongest selling point is the fact that the main opposition PDP does not appear any better if not worse than the APC. For 17 years, the party was at the helms but rather chose to bring down the country on her kneel on almost every front.
“We are surprised that the PDP thinks it can swing a come back. That will not happen in Yorubaland. We are aware of the contradictions in APC but this does not mean Yoruba people see the PDP as an alternative. Im sure the APC will still win the entire South West”, Chief Segun Ajibulu, President of the South West Professionals, (SOWPROF) told our correspondent. He said those who left the APC were driven by personal ambition rather than the general interest of the people. He contends that the personal integrity of the President remains unshaken.
On the fight against corruption, Ajibulu said the EFCC had secured many convictions compared with the PDP leadership in the 17 years it ruled the country.
He cited Ekiti state where workers are being owed seven months of salary arrears as an example. He said though Osun State is indebted like Ekiti, but that the state showcases “monumental developments to the credit of the APC.” He said the PDP represents the ‘darkest alley of hell” that the South West will avoid like a plague. Yet, while the APC faces internal wrangling, the PDP is not entirely free from bitter acrimony which observers think will get worse after the Presidential primary that has seen about five major contenders amidst hints that Senator Saraki will throw his hat into the ring.
It also appears certain that since the APC is most likely to retain Osinbajo as the VP there is the tendency that many South West voters will be swayed by his charm equally considering his ethnic origin as their son. Ajayi puts it this way: “Under PDP, the country was moving speedily backward into chaos and war” under APC, the “country may appear to be moving slowly, but certainly not moving backwards.”
