By Lanlehin Peter Oluwaseun
Adeleke and Fadahunsi-When the going was good
After analysing all 30 local government areas across Osun State, I have come to a clear but not conclusive view of how this election will unfold.
The race is fundamentally a three way contest between Governor Ademola Adeleke of the Accord Party, Bola Oyebamiji of the APC, and Najeem Salaam of the ADC, but the real battle is between Accord and APC, with Salaam serving as a spoiler whose impact will be felt most acutely in Osogbo and parts of Osun West.
My direct interactions with voters in Osogbo over the past two weeks have shaped my understanding of our mood, but I have also studied the broader political dynamics across the state to arrive at a district by district breakdown that I believe captures the likely outcome.
OSUN WEST SENATORIAL DISTRICT
Osun West is the district where Governor Adeleke has his strongest advantage and is likely to deliver his largest margins. This is the Governor’s home turf, anchored by Ede North and Ede South, where his familial legacy gives him an emotional and structural advantage that Oyebamiji cannot realistically overcome. The Governor is expected to win Ede by margins of over 60%, and those massive numbers will form the foundation of his entire statewide strategy, providing a buffer against the losses he is expected to suffer in other districts.
Egbedore also leans Accord due to the influence of federal lawmaker Bamidele Salam, who has aligned with Adeleke and commands significant local respect.
However, Osun West is not a clean sweep for Accord. Ejigbo, which is part of Adeleke’s federal constituency, is competitive because ADC’ Najeem Salam will pull many strings but Ejigbo will be up for grabs for either of the three parties. I can’t say.
However, Irewole, Isokan, and Ayedaade are the home federal constituency of Oyebamiji himself, where the APC candidate is expected to win convincingly with the backing of local strongman Dotun Babayemi.
Iwo is the most unpredictable LGA in this district and I think it is a genuine toss up where Adeleke is counting on the support of Iwo born politician Moshood Adeoti to make critical magic, but the APC has a strong presence and will fight hard because it’s an APC LG. APC is likely to win although Accord would likely match to reduce the margin.
Ola Oluwa and Aiyedire are smaller swing areas which they could go either way depending on turnout and last minute permutations.
Overall, I see Osun West leaning Accord, driven by Adeleke’s overwhelming performance in Ede and Egbedore. But this is not a foregone conclusion. If Oyebamiji can maximise his margins in Irewole, Isokan, and Ayedaade while splitting Iwo and Ejigbo, he may reduce Adeleke’s advantage to a level that makes the rest of the state competitive.
OSUN EAST: CLEARLY APC WITH IFE AS THE GREAT UNKNOWN
Osun East is the district where the APC has made the most dramatic gains and is clearly favoured to win, potentially by margins that could offset Adeleke’s advantage in Osun West. The political map here has shifted fundamentally following the defection of three key federal lawmakers to the APC: Senator Francis Fadahunsi, Honourable Sanya Omirin, and Honourable Wole Oke. These are political heavyweights who have demonstrated their electoral muscle over multiple cycles. The significance of their presence in the APC cannot be overstated, and for Adeleke’s Accord party, their collective alignment with Oyebamiji represents a catastrophe in Ijesaland that may prove impossible to overcome.
Let me start with Wole Oke, who hails from Oriade Local Government Area. Oriade is his political base, and he has been a dominant figure there for years. Oke is not just a federal lawmaker; he is a grassroots mobiliser with deep roots in the community, and his influence extends beyond Oriade into neighbouring LGAs.
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The tragic death of his nephew, which occurred under political circumstances that have generated widespread sympathy in the area, has added an emotional dimension to the election that cannot be ignored. Sympathy votes are a real factor in Nigerian elections, and the death of Oke’s nephew has galvanised his supporters and created a wave of goodwill toward him and, by extension, the APC. This sympathy may well translate into increased turnout in Oriade and surrounding areas, as voters who may have been undecided or apathetic now feel a personal connection to Oke’s loss and a desire to support him politically.
When you combine Oke’s influence with that of Senator Francis Fadahunsi, who hails from Obokun, and Sanya Omirin from the Atakunmosa axis, you have a trio that has historically been unbeatable in Ijesaland. What makes their presence in the APC particularly devastating is their political history. When Aregbesola was at the political height of his power, these three men were in the PDP and still won their own elections in their respective federal constituencies even though they are from the same zone. If they could defeat Aregbesola’s APC at its peak, imagine what they can do now to a frangmented Accord?
The defection of these three strongmen to the APC is therefore a catastrophe for Accord. They are not fairweather politicians who will fade away; they are tested warriors who have proven they can win even when the political winds are against them. Now that the winds are in their favour, with the APC state machinery behind them and Oyebamiji as their candidate, they are virtually unstoppable in Ijesaland. Adeleke’s Accord party has no comparable figures to match them.
The Governor has deployed Commissioner Babatunde Dosu to rally support in Ijesa South, but Dosu cannot compete with the combined might of Fadahunsi, Oke, and Omirin. These three men know every ward, every village, every traditional ruler, and every voting bloc in their respective territories. They have financial resources, mobilisation networks, and the kind of local credibility that cannot be bought or manufactured.
In Ilesa East and Ilesa West, the APC is expected to win comfortably, with Omirin’s influence among other stakeholders. Atakunmosa East and West usually follow a similar pattern. Obokun is the home LGA of Senator Fadahunsi and represents the APC’s strongest bastion in Osun East. Oriade is Wole Oke’s home LGA, and the sympathy generated by his nephew’s death, combined with his established political machine, makes this another clear APC victory.
The Ife LGAs present a different and more complex picture. Ife Central, Ife East, Ife South, and Ife North are not a traditional stronghold for anyone. While Adewusi, Adeleke’s deputy is from Ile Ife and has some local influence, he does not command the kind of overwhelming grassroots structure that would make these LGAs automatic Accord territory. The reality is that Ife has historically been a competitive and divided zone, with both major parties having significant followings.
The 2022 election results demonstrate this clearly. In Ife East, the APC won with 19,353 votes against the PDP’s 18,071, a margin of just over 1,200 votes. In Ife South, the APC also won, securing 12,481 votes against 9,116 for the PDP. In Ife North, the APC won with 12,233 votes against 8,530 for the PDP. These results show that the APC is strong in Ife although many claimed that win was largely due to Omisore presence however due to his passive support now, it may impact APC dominance in Ife zone.
I also expect Taofeek Ajilesoro and the strategic selection of a deputy governorship candidate from Ile Ife to boost the competitive performance of the APC. I think it is a battleground where the APC has a strong track record and may even have the upper hand.
The Accord party will fight hard to defend whatever ground they have in Ife, and Kola Adewusi’s presence on the ticket gives Accord a local figure to rally around, especially as a former Local government chairman.
Based on these, I do not expect Accord to dominate in Ife. In fact, I expect the APC to win at least two of the Ife LGAs, likely Ife East and Ife South where they previously performed strongly in 2022, and to stay highly competitive in the others. Ife North also leans APC. Ife Central is the most unpredictable of the four, but even there, the APC has a solid chance. The Accord party may manage to win one or two of these LGAs, possibly Ife Central, but it will be by a very narrow margin and will require an extraordinary turnout effort.
I think Ife is not a stronghold for anyone; it is genuinely up for grabs, and anyone who emerges victorious there will likely do so by razor thin margins. There will be no landslide for any candidate in the Ife LGAs, and the final outcome may well favour the APC more than Accord.
Overall, I see Osun East clearly going to the APC. This margin will be crucial, as it may well offset Adeleke’s expected dominance in Osun West. The Ijesa bloc, powered by the formidable triumvirate of Fadahunsi, Oke, and Omirin, will deliver the majority of these votes. Adeleke’s survival in Ife will keep the district from becoming a complete disaster for Accord, but the Ijesa stronghold is now firmly in APC hands, and that is a devastating reality for the Governor’s re-election prospects.
These are men who kept Aregbesola at bay when he was at his most powerful, and now that they are aligned with Oyebamiji, they represent the single greatest threat to Adeleke’s chances of returning to the Bola Ige House. Meanwhile, Omisore’s passive role and the defection of his loyalists may slightly moderate the APC’s performance in areas where he once held sway, but it is unlikely to change the overall direction of the district.
OSUN CENTRAL SENATORIAL DISTRICT: THE TRUE BATTLEGROUND
Osun Central is the district that will ultimately decide who wins this election. This district contains the state capital, the largest urban voting blocs, and a mix of APC strongholds and genuine swing areas that make it unpredictable. Neither candidate can afford to lose Osun Central by a wide margin, and the outcome here will likely determine the overall winner.
Osogbo and Olorunda together form the urban heart of the state and represent the most critical and complicated battleground. These two LGAs not only house the largest concentration of civil servants in Osun State but also define many electoral victories in modern osun history. And this demographic will have a significant say in the outcome. Civil servants have largely benefited from Adeleke’s administration in terms of salary payments and some welfare improvements, which gives the Governor a natural advantage among this voting bloc. The majority of civil servants are likely to follow Adeleke, and this is a genuine strength for his campaign in the urban centres.
Also, there is a permutation that has been trending in Osogbo on the basis that voting for Adeleke now will allow power to leave Osun West in 2030 and return to Osogbo, giving the state capital a shot at producing the next Governor. This narrative has grown deep among some voters, and it serves as a motivation to deliver Adeleke in Osogbo. But despite this sentiment, it will be very hard for Adeleke to win Osogbo and Olorunda outright.
The “Edenization” agenda, which refers to the perception that Adeleke is consolidating power in the Ede axis at the expense of other zones, has created resentment among some Osogbo indigenes who feel marginalised and are ready to show workings. More critically, AARAJ, who was a major mobiliser for Adeleke in the 2022 election, has now moved to the APC. His defection will have a tangible impact on Accord’s ground game in Osogbo, as he commanded significant grassroots followership that Adeleke’s campaign cannot easily replace.
When you add Najeem Salaam’s ADC candidacy, which pulls some votes (due to Aregbe patronage), the picture becomes even murkier. The more you look at Osogbo and Olorunda, the less you see. I am inclined to say that the APC may very well take Osogbo and Olorunda back, but anyone who wins may find it hard to do so by a clear margin. Vote buying and and last minute mobilization will determine the winner.
Boripe is the APC’s strongest bastion in Osun Central and the home base of former Governor Oyetola. I do not expect Adeleke to see 30 percent of the votes in this LGA. The APC’s organisational depth here is unrivalled, and Oyebamiji is expected to win by a landslide margin. Boripe will provide the critical votes that Oyebamiji needs to offset his expected losses elsewhere, and I believe by now, Adeleke’s campaign has effectively written off this LGA as a lost cause.
Irepodun presents a different picture. While it is home of Kolapo Alimi and I expect Accord to win it, the margin is going to be an issue. This will be a very close contest, and Adeleke’s campaign has invested enough resources here to make it competitive for them.
Ila, Orolu, and Odo Otin are the swing LGAs in Osun Central, and they will most likely swing in unpredictable directions. These are genuinely up for grabs and will be decided by local dynamics on election day.
Overall, I see Osun Central as the most competitive district in the state, with the outcome potentially going either way. My current view is that the APC may very well carry Osun Central, driven by their landslide in Boripe, their potential victory in Osogbo and Olorunda, and their ability to keep Irepodun close while splitting the swing LGAs.
However, Adeleke’s advantage among civil servants in Osogbo, and the influence of House Speaker Egbedun in Odo Otin may keep the district competitive. The margins in Osogbo and Olorunda may define who becomes the next Governor.
I am not conclusive in my prediction, but I am convinced that the election will be decided in Osun Central, and the margins in Osogbo, Olorunda, and the swing LGAs will determine the final outcome.
Whoever wins Osun Central, and by how much, will likely occupy the Bola Ige House.
This election is genuinely unpredictable, and I will be watching the results from Osun Central more closely than anywhere else.
