9
by
Victor Oladipupo
Governor Ademola Adeleke,battle of his Life
From an Unbiased review and someone who loved to drop my chips before door closes, this is my conclusion as at today.
I have been looking at the 2026 Osun State governorship election beyond the noise of social media, campaign crowds, party propaganda and the usual my candidate is winning arguments.
I went back to the electoral history of Osun since the return to democracy in 1999 and tried to understand one thing.
What does the pattern actually tell us about the election coming on August 15, 2026?
My conclusion is simple, but I know it will probably generate arguments.
If I have to predict a winner today, I will give Bola Oyebamiji of the APC a narrow edge over Governor Ademola Adeleke of Accord.
But let me explain why.
Osun has never been a state where one political party can confidently claim permanent ownership.
In 1999, the Alliance for Democracy won with Bisi Akande.
In 2003, the PDP took the state with Olagunsoye Oyinlola.
In 2007, the PDP retained the state, although the election eventually became one of the most significant electoral/legal battles in Osun’s history, culminating in Rauf Aregbesola taking office in 2010.
In 2014, Aregbesola and the APC won decisively.
Then came 2018.
That election should be studied carefully by anyone trying to predict Osun.
Gboyega Oyetola defeated Ademola Adeleke by just 482 votes after the supplementary election.
Read that again.
482 votes.
That tells you something about Osun politics.
This is not a state where you can look at a rally and declare the election over.
Then came 2022.
Adeleke defeated Oyetola with 403,371 votes against 375,027.
Adeleke therefore won by approximately 28,344 votes.
The important lesson from these elections is that Osun is politically fluid.
The electorate can move.
Political structures can collapse.
Coalitions can change.
And a seemingly small shift in voter behaviour can completely alter the outcome.
That is why I don’t believe anybody who tells you that the 2026 election is already settled.
It isn’t.
NOW LET’S LOOK AT 2026.
The first major difference is that Ademola Adeleke is no longer contesting under the PDP.
He is now the Accord candidate.
That is not a minor detail.
Adeleke’s 2022 victory was achieved through the PDP structure, his personal political appeal, the Adeleke political network, anti-incumbency sentiment and divisions within the opposition.
The question for 2026 is:
Can Adeleke transfer the entire 2022 coalition from PDP to Accord?
I believe he can transfer a substantial portion of it.
But I don’t believe he will transfer all of it.
That is where the APC becomes dangerous.
Bola Oyebamiji is not entering this election as an isolated candidate.
He has the APC structure behind him.
He also benefits from the larger political machinery of a party controlling the federal government.
And Osun APC is not starting from zero. It has a political history in the state stretching through the Aregbesola and Oyetola years.
The APC therefore has something Adeleke does not have to the same extent in this election:
A very established party structure.
But here is the problem for APC.
Federal power does not automatically translate into Osun votes.
We saw that in 2022.
APC controlled the federal government then and still lost the governorship.
So if APC’s strategy is simply “we control Abuja, therefore Osun belongs to us,” that strategy is weak.
Osun voters have demonstrated repeatedly that they are capable of voting against the federal political tide.
THEN THERE IS THE THIRD MAN.
Najeem Salaam of the ADC is perhaps the most strategically important candidate outside the two leading contenders.
He doesn’t necessarily need to win to determine who wins.
That is the interesting part.
If Salaam takes a significant percentage of voters who would otherwise have gone to either APC or Adeleke, he can alter the mathematics of the election. But as it is, I think the supporters of Adeleke is what he will deal with.
And because he is associated with the political tradition of Rauf Aregbesola, his candidacy cannot simply be dismissed as another minor-party candidacy.
The ADC WILL NOT win.
But it can change the winner.
This is why I believe the three-way nature of this election is more important than many people realise.
MY CURRENT PROBABILITY
If I had to put a probability on it today, my assessment would be:
APC — Bola Oyebamiji: 48%
Accord — Ademola Adeleke: 44%
ADC — Najeem Salaam: 8%
Notice something.
I am not predicting a landslide.
I am predicting a knife-edge election.
My current expectation is that the winner could emerge with a relatively modest margin.
Something in the region of 20,000–30,000 votes would not surprise me.
And that is precisely why the battleground LGAs matter.
The election will not be decided by who has the loudest rally or the biggest social-media following.
It will be decided by turnout, mobilisation, local structures, candidate loyalty, voter distribution and the ability of each political machine to convert support into actual votes.
There are several battleground areas that deserve particular attention, including Osogbo, the Ede axis, Iwo, Ife, Ilesa and other closely contested parts of the state. Recent reporting has also identified a number of battleground LGAs that could determine the final outcome.
BUT HERE IS WHERE I THINK ADELEKE CAN STILL WIN.
Let me be very clear.
Calling APC the narrow favourite does not mean I think Adeleke is finished.
Far from it.
Adeleke has something extremely valuable in politics:
An established personal voter base.
He has been governor for four years.
He has built relationships.
He has incumbency.
He has name recognition.
He has demonstrated electoral strength.
And importantly, the PDP structure has indicated support for his re-election despite his movement away from the party.
If Adeleke successfully consolidates the old PDP voters, his personal supporters, his political family network and voters satisfied with his administration, then my APC prediction could easily become wrong.
In fact, that is probably the biggest threat to the Oyebamiji campaign.
AND THIS IS WHERE APC CAN LOSE.
APC can lose this election if it mistakes party strength for voter enthusiasm.
Having a strong structure is not enough.
Having federal backing is not enough.
Having money is not enough.
Having powerful political figures campaigning for you is not enough.
The APC candidate has to convince ordinary Osun voters that they are voting for something, not merely voting against Adeleke.
That distinction matters.
If the APC campaign becomes excessively anti-Adeleke without presenting a compelling alternative, Adeleke can turn the election into a referendum on his personality and administration.
And that would be dangerous for APC.
MY BIGGEST QUESTION FOR ADELEKE
Can he make the electorate forget the party label?
Because the man who won in 2022 was not simply “PDP.”
It was Ademola Adeleke + PDP + the Adeleke political structure + the opposition vote.
In 2026, he needs to prove that the most important part of that equation was Ademola Adeleke himself.
If he does, Accord may become almost irrelevant.
If he doesn’t, the change of party becomes much more significant.
MY BIGGEST QUESTION FOR OYEBAMIJI
Can he turn APC’s structural advantage into actual votes?
Because Osun politics has repeatedly shown that political structures can look impressive on paper and still fail on election day.
The APC therefore needs discipline, strong grassroots mobilisation and, above all, unity.
It cannot afford internal sabotage.
It cannot afford complacency.
And it cannot assume that the federal structure will do the work for it.
SO, WHO AM I PREDICTING?
Today, I am putting my money on Bola Oyebamiji of the APC.
Not because I believe Adeleke is weak.
Not because APC is unbeatable.
Not because social media says so.
And certainly not because I am interested in joining the usual political cheerleading.
I am predicting APC because when I combine Osun’s electoral history, the competitiveness of recent elections, the current three-way structure, the APC’s organisational advantage and the fragmentation created by Adeleke’s movement from PDP to Accord, I believe Oyebamiji currently has the narrowest path to victory.
Also Read:Osun APC mega rally: Akpabio, Uzodimma, others arrive Osogbo
Lets give Peace a chance,Adeleke pleads as he inaugurates Ile-Ife Flyover
But my verdict comes with a very large caveat:
This is a 48–44 election, not a 70–30 election.
A small movement in turnout.
A small shift among undecided voters.
A stronger-than-expected performance by Salaam.
A failure to consolidate a particular senatorial district.
A mobilisation problem in a handful of LGAs.
Any of these can change the result.
And that is what makes Osun 2026 fascinating.
The state has changed political colours several times since 1999.
It has produced razor-thin victories.
It has overturned incumbents.
It has rewarded opposition candidates.
It has punished complacency.
So, if you ask me for the verdict today, August 12, 2026, three days before the election:
My prediction is Bola Oyebamiji of the APC — narrowly.
But if Adeleke succeeds in converting his personal popularity into a consolidated Accord/PDP/Adeleke voting coalition, I would not be shocked to see him retain the Government House.
The race is that close.
Ultimately, the ballot box, not Facebook, not Twitter, not campaign crowds, not opinion polls and not political godfathers, will settle the argument.
Osun will decide.
And when the votes are counted, we will know whether the historical pattern has once again produced another political realignment, or whether Ademola Adeleke has successfully broken away from the party structure that brought him to power in 2022.
My verdict: APC edge.
My confidence: low-to-moderate.
My expectation: a very close election.
My warning: anyone calling this election a walkover is probably not taking Osun’s electoral history seriously enough.
#RawaVictor
From the FB page of Victor Oladipupo
