Fuel Subsidy: Tinubu’s choice between emotion and reality

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There are three types of approach to problem solving. While some leaders choose to wait,watch and allow problems to fester;there are those who allow problems to meet them half way while the last category are those few leaders who choose to confront the problems headlong through ways and means to resolve it. All the different approaches has its weaknesses,advantages and disadvantages. Since leadership is about problem solving,attitude and style of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu since he was sworn in on Monday shows he was ready for problems and device ways to solve it in his own strategic way. He declared to the Progressives Governors Forum last week that since he applied for the job,he must carry the burden and solve emergent problems. It is apparent that by mentioning death of subsidy in his inaugural speech,he saw a problem in it while his admission to be ready to take on and confront the nations problems shows a leader ready to take risks,dare the impossible ,face the odds and navigate his way out. Since subsidy of petroleum is as old as the death of our refineries which ‘sickness’ over the years has become a malignant tumour since the late 70s,it is important that any solution arround it must be deep with far reaching consequences. Thus Tinubus declaration on first day shows he is ready to confront the problem headlong not waiting for another opportunity than the beginning of his four year tenure. That he choose the hard way jettisoning popularity with painful decision is likened to Winston Churchill’s first world war strategic gambling. Tinubu like Churchill by the few pronouncements and appointments he has made, prefer to start appointing people at the top. Said Churchill,”I must have the principal men in their places. You cannot build a staff as you build a house,from the bottom upwards,and then when it is all finished put the chief of staff on top of it like the chimney.” Hence,it appears Tinubu choose to go the other way round and organize a group of men at the top and let them work in accordance with principles “which had been clearly prescribed “. For a man who had planned and focused on getting the top job for the past thirty years,Tinubus last week appointment of Honorable Femi

Fuel subsidy regime not sustainable- Progressives Governors Forum as Tinubu rues salary increase Gbajaniamila is an indication of the team he wants to build,and the work he wants to do just as the appointment of Senator George Akume as the Secretary to Government of the Federation,SGF. But then,Tinubus has an uphill task in taking decisions on the raging fuel subsidy issue vis a vis the oil sector and this perhaps explains his facing headlong the subsidy issue even when he has spent only few days in office. That he did not allow the thirty days grace of fuel subsidy expiration to meet him unprepared shows he wants to face the problem headlong. Yes,there are land mines of pains to the public on the way especially Organised Labours emotive stance, yet it is better to meet problem halfway than allow empty and depletion of foreign reserves used in running our debt portfolio to close Nigeria up financially globally. In the year 2022,Nigeria according to the National Bureau of Stastistics made $45.6billion (N21 trillion) from the sales of crude oil out of which according to World Bank,the nation spent 96.4% to service it’s humongous debt of N77 trillion. You then wonder where and how it would raise money to run it’s bourgeoning bureaucracy and embark on development projects from the remaining 3,96% of it’s earning. In a nation of two hundred million and with over 90% depedent on oil as it’s major foreign exchange earning, why should it continue to spend $10billion yearly as it spent on fuel subsidy in 2022. If the reasons above given by the former government of President Muhammadu Buhari in refusing to allocate money from June this year to pay for subsidy,is true,it simply means that the government has to find a way to raise local money to cater for it’s needs in form of removing subsidy on petroleum products. This is the situation Tinubu has inherited and which he told members of the Progressives Governors Forum,in his first meeting with them,he was prepared to stop. Hence,his stance simply means no going back on subsidizing corruption which subsidy has over the years represents to the nation, emotional outbursts of I’ll informed commentators notwithstanding. Must Nigeria continue to help economy of West African countries through our unpatriotic citizens who use our unrealistic price of fuel to perpetuate smuggling? By asking the security agencies to stop theft of our oil which has reduced our local production to below one million litres out of OPECs 1.8million quota it is a determined battle. This has inevitably reduced our earnings while the refined products we import from our inadequate foreign exchange is being sold at subsidized prize with it’s impact on our local earnings. According to NNPC, N400 billion is spent monthly on subsidizing corruption. However,one important thing President Tinubu must do if removing subsidy is to be effective is to seek to know how much fuel we consume locally. This has always been the source of corruption in the subsidy racket. According to the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority(NMDPRA) the nation consumes 66.8million litres of subsidized petroleum products per day. By inference,It stated that annual daily truck out between January – July 2022 is 66.8million litres. On the contrary,the NNPC on its website announced the nation is consuming 68milluon litres of subsidized petroleum products daily. How come the figures between two government agencies did not add up?. These are serious questions which the National Extractive Transparency Initiative,NEITI must also help to provide answer. Yet ,another big question is of what significance is the contribution of newly commissioned Dangote refinery which said it could produce 103,341,742 million litres of refined petroleum products daily to our local needs? With the largest single train refinery in the world,Dangote refinery occupying 2,635 hectares of land bigger than Victoria Island could only be a game changer if our moribound four refineries are revived to provide competition. If there is no competition,then Dangote refinery might as well turn out to be another dangerous monopoly in the upstream sector. President Tinubu surely has an ace up his sleeve by confronting the oil crisis headlong and his approach to solving it may be the needed tonic for turning arround the nations fortunes as in other areas. However, the above basic questions must get answers . This answers will pave a way forward for Nigerians to enjoy benefit of their natural endowment hitherto the preserve of the few rich and powerful through payment of subsidy.

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