Abayomi Adebisi
Since the beginning of electioneering campaign late last year after the party primaries,one candidate who has emerged on the horizon and occupied centre stage of discussion is Asiwaju Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress,APC.
Atiku not adopted as our presidential candidate
His level of campaign is such that the two other contenders,Abubakar Atiku of the People’s Democratic Party,PDP and Peter Obi of the Labour Party who emerged after he ditched the PDP for the labour party-a party which has been in near oblivion in the past four years.
With Obi joining the party,he is seen as the hope of the people of the South East geo- political zone to produce the country’s president.
Though Obi has been able to galvanise the youths to accept his party and see him as a possible winner, the lack of necessary political structures and not having elected members from the State Houses of Assembly to the Presidency makes his dream unrealistic.
Since in politics, numbers count,this is the first area of strength for Tinubu whose party can boast of elected officials spread across the six geo political zones of the country.
Besides controlling the federal government, with APC appointees in all the MDAs,agencies and parastatals, it has majority of legislators in both arm of the National assembly and most of this legislators are seeking reelection.
This means in effect that as this legislators are campaigning for themselves,they are also busy campaigning for the Presidential candidates.
Besides Tinubu who has criss-crossed all parts of the country in the past two months both at day time and night time,he has taken the campaign to the people compared with Obi whose campaign is felt more on the social media than the grassroots.
In terms of spread, the nineteen states being controlled by the APC minus the five dissent PDP states whose governors are already surreptitious identified with Tinubu,the former Lagos governor stands a better chance. He already has at least twenty five percent of votes from the twenty four states which is the minimum required for any candidate for office of the President.
From all indications,the Rivers state governor, Nyesome Wike who is control of the state is committed to Tinubu’s emergence in words and deeds and has so directed all the party members from the ward level to state to vote Tinubu.
Wike’s support in Rivers will be addition to the APC which is the main opposition party in the state.
Rivers has almost six million voters after Kano and Lagos.
Another factor which stands Tinubu ahead of Obi is the clear block votes from the South West of the country as voters in this zone are not known to abandon their own.
Governor Seyi Makinde of Oyo state in terms of body language and declaration has signified intention to support Tinubu as he welcomed him to Ibadan last week with open arms.
In Osun state,in spite contested victory of the PDP with Governor Ademola Adeleke temporarily in power , it is clear that majority, if not 80% of votes will go to Tinubu.
Traditionally, only candidates who are able to win block votes from Northwest and South West can emerge as President in Nigeria.
By the number of registered voters this year,NW has 24million voters, followed by SW 17million . This means between the two they have 41million registered voters and both are today being ruled by APC with the exception of two states.
In the North East,the popularity of Vice presidential running mate,Kashim Shettima,a banker and former governor of Borno state is giving Atiku sleepless nights.
Apart from this factor,his choice is seen as an edge by the Kanuri people who has never been in the presidency.
He is seen as alternative to Atiku,a Fulani from the North East who has been in government before.
By far the biggest advantage for the Tinubu ticket over Obi and Atiku is the fact that twelve governors of the APC from the North who facilitated Tinubu’s emergence have stuck their neck out to criticise Buhari for attempting to ditch Tinubu who they are convinced is a friend of the North.
The activities of trio of El Rufai,Ganduje and Badaru of Kaduna,Kano and Jigawa state respectively is significant and noteworthy.
This is because,since the beginning of party politics in Nigeria, governors of such pedigree have not openly supported a Southern candidate in the way they have done.
That they have looked straight into Buhari’s eyes and chided the Cabal behind resistance to power shift has clearly divided the ranks of those opposed to Tinubu from the North and also solidify the Progressives governors forum which berth the APC in 2014.
With 21governors in it’s fold, it is a miracle to get any candidate, especially one with no state apparatus behind him like Obi to defeat Tinubu.
El Rufai’s open criticism of the two Northern power groups the Arewa Consultative Forum and Northern Elders Forum often ascribed with influence on northern voters is quite significant.
It marks a clear division between the traditional power brokers and the young elite as represented by the governors.
Since they still have their future in politics their resolve to prevent the collapse of APC by standing with Tinubu is significant.
It is quite clear as the three governors have pointed out that the Naira redesign policy is a project imposed on Buhari by fifth columnist who wanted the party to loose backed by the Central Bank Governor, Godwin Emefiele.
That the governors have instructed their people to continue using the old N1000 and N500 as means of legal tender and even joined seven other states in taken the Central Bank of Nigeria,CBN and the Federal government to the Supreme court is a plus for Tinubu.
Through the action,the public is being made to accept that their suffering was inflicted by fifth columnists in the party working for opposition People’s Democratic Party,PDP.
In the South East,the influence of Senator Orji Kalu,Chimaroke Nnamani both former governors of Abia and Enugu state and incumbent Hope Uzodinma of Imo state will allow Tinubu to make an inroad into the region known as Obis traditional home base of support.
The trio of Rufai by their actions are also demonstrating and determined to prove that governors hold the aces in mobilisation of Northern voting populace while the others think otherwise.
Hence,it is apparent, the two dominant political power groups in the North set for coalition on account of support for Tinubu
