By Tunde Abatan
Since it’s formation in Owo,a town in Ondo state in 1952 by Yoruba leaders as the Yoruba socio cultural group to seek welfare of all Yoruba irrespective of political leaning, Afenifere has gradually transformed itself beyond the ordinary to a power clearing house.
Afenifere/Tinubu tango:Adebanjo kicks against endorsement
A clearing house which later became the political ruling group as it metamorphosed into the defunct Action Group which motto is Life more abundant.
As a welfarist political group,Afenifere easily dissolved unto the AG which seeks accomodations of other Nigerians from various ethnic group which shares the same welfarist ideology with it.
Hence, it is convenient to say that Afenifere is synonym with Yoruba larger welfarist ideology in any party it chooses to identify with.
Ironically,in the last twenty years when the group identify with dominant political groups in the emerging republic,the fault lines in the group personified by leaders with separate political ideology now appears set to further divide the mainstream Yoruba political power house.
Sentiment apart,the acting leader of Afenifere,Chief Ayo Adebanjos who has never won any election in the former Western region appears to loom large on the apex Yoruba group.
Except that leadership was entrusted to him by ageing Pa Reuben Fasoranti few years ago, Chief Adebanjo by his open personification of Afenifere without reference to the ageing leader seems to be going through it’s most turbulent period.
While the recent endorsement of Asiwaju Bola Tinubu,the presidential candidate of All Progressives Congress,APC by ageing Fasoranti appears to be the immediate cause of fresh hostilities,the earlier endorsement of Peter Obi of the Labour Party,LP appears to be the remote cause of the new crisis which may further divide the Afenifere which grew so powerful in the early part of this republic that it’s word was law.
Indeed,few months to the 1999 general elections which birthed the fourth republic, Afenifere which had Senator Abraham Adesanya as leader merely had to raise any politicians hand for the electorate in the six states of South West to rubber stamp.
Afenifere looms large in Alliance for Democracy,AD as it became the vehicle for the actualisation of it’s political power.
As for Chief Ayo Adebanjos,Afenifere is AD and AD is Afenifere.
This position actually threatened the cohesiveness of the AD after the election as others from other part of the country feel alienated and swallowed up by Afenifere domineering influence.
It is not out of place to say,it sang ADs death knell.
Hence, what Fasoranti and others did in Akure last Sunday by welcoming Tinubu with open arms and in the words of Abagun Kole Omololu, it’s general secretary endorsed him was it’s conviction that “Tinubu shared with us his vision of a greater and more prosperous Nigeria where Democratic Rights,rule of law, justice and fairness will reign supreme”.
Omololu did not stop at that, he said that the wing of Afenifere which comprises of Olu Falae-who came back from retirement from politics,Ayo Ladigbolu,a rested Methodist Bishop,Gbenga Daniel,Bisi Akande and incumbent Oyo state Deputy Governor,Bayo Lawal, is convinced of the assurance given by Tinubu that he will take steps to ensure the safety and security of Nigerians and their properties”.
Beyond this ,the Afenifere scribe to justify it’s endorsement of Tinubu said the former Lagos governor”proved beyond doubt that he would practice true federalism by giving states more control over internal affairs if elected.
Since,it bounced back to reckoning in 1998,agitation for true federalism gas been Afeniferes credo.
The question begin for answer now is,Why did Adebanjo who apparently is on acting capacity,did not entertain or dialogue with Tinubu before deciding to cast it lot with Obi.
Did Obi, a south easterner like former President Goodluck Jonathan who never promised anything and did nothing after getting the report of 2014 conference more promising like Jonathan.
Why was Tinubu not engaged by Afenifere before the later openly endorsed Obi?
Is the Akure gathering not an open disagreement with Adebanjos action and a carefully orchestrated coup to tell Adebanjo and the infidels that they have usurped the temporal powers given them by not throwing open the consultation before they gave blanket support to Obi who has never in any way ruled any of their state or demonstrated his belief in Afeniferes credo than Tinubu who fought former President Olusegun Obasanjo to a standstill over his refusal to allow formation of local government and practises of federalism?
Is Adebanjos action not a confirmation of deep seated anger agaibst Tinubu considering his age long opposition to him?
In an interview, Adebanjo who confirmed he was invited to the Akure meeting but refused to attend said his decision to use Afenifere to support Obi was not informed by ideology adding,”2023 is not about Restructuring or manifestoes or anything.wgat we want is that South West cannot produce the President,it has to be Peter Obi. I did not consult Pa Fasoranti before I endorsed Peter Obi”.
From Adebanjos statement above,it clearly means that the Afenifere he led is unmindful of it’s tenets and standpoint of true federalism.
The question now is,when did Afenifere jettison it’s age long belief and started pursuing power for it’s sake .
It is apparent that either Adebanjo choose to be autocratic in his style of running Afenifere even when he is on acting capacity as the leader is still alive.
Said he,” I was not supposed to be at the Akure meeting because Afenifere has taken position.
He asked me to come but I told him Afenifere has taken position and stand to support Obi.
Any other other splinter or rebel group is not going to work and we will see that we succeed at the election.”
But then the question is where are the followers or the structure Afenifere intend to use to out Obi in power at least votes of the six states in the South West.
Today, five governors and many Senate and house of representatives and assembly members are in control of their states in South West.
Besides that,Governor Seyi Makinde, obviously the last man standing in the opposition People’s Democratic Party,PDP in the region has openly declared support for Tinubu.
He did not do that alone,he sent his deputy,Bayo Lawal to represent him at the Akure gathering which is a carefully scripted coup d’etat for Adebanjos faction of Afenifere.
Makindes stand in view of his candidature of the PDP is also a sign that should Tinubu win and he got back his second term,a new reallignment of political forces in the region and Nigeria is imminent given his membership of the four rebel governors in PDP led by Governor Nyesome Wike of Rivers state.
Yes,in politics popularity is important but followership is the real power.
In 2015 and 2019, Adebanjo and ‘his’ Afenifere openly endorsed Jonathan and Abubakar Atiku respectively but the people voted their choice contrary to the power and influence Afenifere wielded in 1999 when it’s word was a decree in South West. Today,the reverse is the case.
For how long will Adebanjo and his camp hold the region.
Fasoranti while praying for Tinubu declared ,”Tinubu will win the election and we will support him to win”.
If this is not an open endorsement and imminent division in Afenifere especially since he is still alive but merely cede power temporarily,is it not an indication that the real power that controls Afenifere has come back to take the power he feels has nit been justly used by the acting leader?
For the house of Oduduwa,this are interesting times as the sharp division with the two camps backed by different forces bent on pulling it down to whittle down it’s influence.
Should Tinubu win the election,it will sing a death song for fledgling Afenifere leadership under Adebanjo who never for once hide his disdain for him.
On the other hand same scenario will play out should Obi win considering the age long political animosity between the South West and South East which has never thawed in spite of the activities of the fledgling Committee for Unity and Understanding,CUU formed in the wake of third republic politics to cement political unity between the two regions. Since,those in power today in the two regions do things their own way…SW dominated by APC and South East largely PDP, having any lasting influence on the voters and populace in spite of Obis growing popularity among youths would be tested during elections.
But then the issue of security of lives and property compounded by banditry,herdsmen attack and lopsidedness in appointment by the Buhari administration will continue to be a dark spot in a government that has done more on building infrastructure like roads building, rehabilitation and repairs, railways and airport modernisation than any government in the last twenty years.
How the parties and candidates are able to convince the electorate in the election especially on solving epidemy of youths unemployment and their restiveness will determine the outcome of the election.
For now, should the election go against the wish of Adebanjos Afenifere,he has almost nothing to lose as most of those in his camp are neither standing for election except those in the Labour Party to which the group is now politically inseparable.
Interesting times lie ahead indeed!.
