Frankly Speaking: Buhari, APC and 2023 Conundrum

By Tunde Abatan,
tunde2013abatan@gmail.com,08165660217
From all indications, the decision of President Muhammadu Buhari to approve the zoning arrangement of All Progressives Congress,APC, March 3 last week for the sharing of posts for the national convention shows that both him as National leader and the other stakeholders in the party and government are in a race for time.
The race this time arround is compounded by the apparent delay of the party to have it’s national convention since the removal of the Comrade Adams Oshiomole led executive in 2020 and the provisions of the Amended Electoral Bill which appears to have put the wind out of the sail of the party.
Though the amendment to the Bill affected all the parties,yet it has ruffled the feathers of both the state governors on one hand and the political appointees who have to resign their appointment if they must contest the elections.
As for the National Assembly members especially those of them whose governors are serving second term and interested in Senate seat, the governors who felt betrayed by the granting of local government , judicial and legislative autonomy in the constitutional amendment are waiting for the legislators to come back home to ask for a second term.
They are also waiting to stop President Buhari and NASS members move to whittle their power on their states via the proposed constitutional amendment granted the three tiers.
Besides,the governors are also waiting for President Buhari who has insisted that Senator Abdullahi Adamu,former governor of Nasarawa state should be the concensus candidate during the party’s March 26 convention against the governors choice of Umar Al Makura, a serving senator from same Nassarawa state as their preferred candidate.
Although Makura has insisted on contesting for the national Chairmanship post,a lot of give and take could still occur if Buhari decides to have his way on his choice of Senator Adamu.
His choice of Adamu it is apparent is in consonant with his larger goal of installing his own concensus candidate when it is time for the party to pick it’s presidential candidate in June.
On this matter,both Buhari and the party’s Governors have different agenda as the later would want to do for Buhari what they did for former President Olusegun Obasanjo when the then People’s Democratic Party ,PDP, governors rallied round to ensure that one of their own pick the Presidential slot after the failure of the alleged third term bid of Obasanjo.
Yet , a division among the governors of the south west is likely since Governor Kayode Fayemi is the only sitting governor from the South West where the Presidency has been zoned by APC that is free to contest by then.
As things stand today, three state governors, Osun and Lagos will be going for their second term while Rotimi Akeredolu of Ondo will be two years into his second term tenure.
So as things stand today,only Fayemi is free.
But then,Fayemi too will still have to slug out the Presidency ticket with former Lagos governor Asiwaju Bola Tinubu and vice President Yemi Osinbajo both of who are already front runners in the race.
Though, President Buharis choice among the SW is not yet known,it is apparent that one of the three mentioned will likeky get it.
But then,there is another force among the governors rooting for Central Bank Governor,Godwin Emefiele, who our sources said have already amassed billions of naira as war chest for his campaign.
In this regard, a campaign office is already opened for him in Ikoyi Lagos.
This will however depend on whether President Buhari has changed his mind on zoning the Presidency to the South West. It is thought that Emefiele is not likely to go the opposite camp of President Buhari if there is a signal from him that he will hand over to somebody from South West. Emefiele is however yet to resign his job in CBN.
But since 24 hour is too long in politics, schemings and manouvers in the party could still change the situation of things.
One factor which analysts and close observers of President Buhari are basing their permutation of his choice is the fact that he hardly changed those who are closer and have been working with him. they cited the way he ran the defunct Petroleum Task Force,PTF as clear examples.
They are also pointing to the fact that since he appointed ministers in 2015, only few of them have been dropped.
This attitude some say could count in favour of both Osinbajo and Fayemi who have one time been minister of Solid Minerals and Steel before he contested for and win the Ekiti governorship election.
As for Asiwaju Tinubu,while it is apparent that most of the governors except Dr Abdullahi Ganduje ,Babajide Sanwoolu,Gboyega Oyetola of Kano ,Lagos and Osun states respectively are the few that could be counted as his unflinching supporters,he couldn’t beat his chest for loyalty of Dapo Abiodun of Ogun,Rotimi Akeredolu of Ondo.
As things stand today, several factors, power groups including traditional rulers and national assembly members especially from the South West will play a major role in who gets the presidential ticket of APC if the position is eventually zoned to the region by APC .
Going by the zoning formula just approved by President Buhari,it is apparent that the APC is simply reversing the sharing of position formula it used to snatch power from the PDP between the North West and South West part of the country which produced Buhari except that it has allotted the Senate Presidency to South East and Speaker to North Central while vice President will go to North West.
President Buhari also has to contend with the Tinubu political factor whichever way the presidential primary goes.
Since Tinubu appears to be the man with the single biggest political structure and following, it is logical and reasonable to expect that he will have a Plan B should his party fail to give him the ticket if the Convention takes place.
Having confessed his life long ambition to rule the country and the fact of his age in four years from next year,it is only natural to expect that he would invest his all in securing the party’s ticket or find his fortune elsewhere.
Should that be the case,how President Buhari handles Tinubus likely defection will also to a large extent affect the cohesiveness and stability of the APC giving the various power play by the powerful stakeholders in the party.
The period between now and March 26 when the national convention will take place and between March and August when the party will pick it’s Presidential bearer will be interesting time indeed for the party in power and the nation in general.