By Tunde Abatan,tunde2013@gmail.com 08165660216
Osinbajo (r) and Tinubu
These are interesting times in Nigeria. Interesting because gradually the hitherto hidden agenda of top political players is coming into the fore courtesy of their minions angling to reposition themselves..
However,it is rather curious and interesting that the tough part of the titanic battle about who takes over from President Muhammadu Buhari may be fought more among the core politicians who brought him up from retirement in 2015 as the scales are gradually falling about a not too tidy arrangement.
Yet,ambition defines man,his attitudes and choices but then it also determines to a great extent how men fair in the zero sum game of power which is d ultimate of ambition.
Like late Moshood Kashimawo Abiola,his decision to translate from a kingmaker of soldiers who turn coupists to attain power,ironically made him to end on the belly of the tiger he had sought vainly to ride to power and be king himself.
It is an open secret that Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, former Lagos state governor who transmuted from being the last man standing in 2003 after his contemporary governors in then Alliance Fir Democracy,AD eventually build the All Progressive Congress,APC with which he installed President Buhari and went ahead to give him one of his protege in person of Vice President Yemi Osibajo,as running mate.
Ironically,having stayed in the kitchen for six years,Osibajo as reserved,calculative as a law surgeon,also along the line for used to the Presidential kitchen and obviously would want a slice of the action to take over from his boss.
This is where loyalty to a benefactor and ambition clash.
Although, Osibajo is yet to publicly declare his intention to take over from his boss,activities of his minions,supporters all over the country shortly after Senator Dayo Adeyeye and his corterie of Tinubus political merchants and navigators took a plunge forward and help Asiwaju threw in his hat into the ring.
From the North east to the South and middle belt, Osibajos supporters have waxed and become bolder daily though official statements from Osibajos spokespersons have continued to deny his interest.but the more he denied,the more the team campaigning for his emergence get serious.
On the other flank,Tinubus foot soldiers led by Adeyeye has transversed the whole of South West talking to traditional rulers and opinion leaders.
Perhaps sensing the development of today, Ooni of Ile Ife,Oba Ogunwusi,Ojaja 1 ask Tinubu foot soldiers to look inward and unite themselves first if they must make an impact..whatever that means it is pregnant.
Today,few days before Tinubus return from medical treatment abroad where he hosted several politicians coming to wish him well,the APC director of administration, Abubakar Suleiman sent a letter of recognition to the Progress Civil Society Group,PCSG, the group behind Osibajo emergence,recognizing them as a support group,the first of such by the Mai Mala Buni led leadership.
Controversies that has sorrounded Governor Bunis of Yobe state team as APC caretaker committee are still very much around and it’s obvious polarisation of APC.
But then,Bala Gide,head of PCSG,said the recognition of the group by the party further justified optimism towards realization of an Osinbajo Presidency.
Said he,”we deeply appreciate the widening mobilisation and deepening support that PCG and all associated groups working towards an Osinbajo Presidency.
Barely a week ago,Lagos governor, Babajide Sanwoolu and members of the state house of assembly and Conference of 57 went a step further what Senator Adeyeye has done by launching Lagos chapter of SWAGA..it is instructive that this launch came few weeks after Governor Sanwoolus London get -well trip to his benefactor and few days before Tinubus return to Nigeria.
He described Tinubu.. as a core political thinker.
With the formal launch by a sitting Lagos governor,Tinubus hat is already in the ring while for now the intensity of those rooting for Osinbajo is gaining momentum.
This is all happening few weeks to the APC national convention which has for obvious reasons been postponed twice..probably to mend broken walls in the party’s house after former leader Comrade Adams Oshiomoles humbling removal from office in spite of spirited battle by his supporters.
The battle for the soul of the APC will be tested any time the national convention takes place and this perhaps explains why the SWAGA promoters could no longer hide their intent or wait until the unravelling of the party before they go for the kill ditto Osinbajos backers most of who are liberals in the APC from the North.
This obviously represents a new tendency in the party different from the Congress for Progressive Change,CPC,already angling for the soul of the APC.
Given the calculations in the North,those rooting for Osibajos emergence may actually be working on giving President Buhari a soft landing and someone they can trust.
Giving Tinubus awesome political machinery,it is feared that giving the 2023 ticket to him may sing the death knell for arch conservatives in the APC from the North who are bent on maintaining a stranglehold on the party at the end of Buharis tenure in 2023.
Considering Osinbajos antecedent, he may not be seen as a direct threat to those who have the ears of President Buhari in the party and it’s national caretaker.
Yet,another obstacle for Osinbajo could be found in some South West governor’s and former governor’s and serving ministers who are closer to Buhari but wouldn’t want their influence diminished. They are also not too comfortable with Tinubus political machinery which they feared may be too powerful to contain should the party’s ticket be given to him.
As for now,Tinubu could only confidently boast of only Lagos,Ogun and Osun states as Ekiti, Ondo and Oyo are quite dicey giving the not too cordial political relationship between the Asiwaju of Lagos and the governors.
Yet,another scenario if encouraging the campaign to bring in Osinbajo may be a deft move to cause a deep rift between and among power players in South West such that the schisms in the APC in the region among the two contenders may be an alibi for Northern wing to want to retain Presidency.
Given Tinubus life long ambition could he be persuaded to step down for or support Osinbajo if President Buharis is not disposed to his candidature.?
The possible scenario is a likely implosion in the APC after the national convention and if the power brokers behind Governor Buni maintained it’s hold on the party,Tinubu and his men may have to find their fortunes somewhere else. This is highly probable as Osinbajo is not likely to jump ship from the party given his being in government.
Yet,the support of some of the south west governors in President Buharis cabinet is not too evident for now as most of them are still lying low.
What Tinubu is able to make from Ondo,Ekiti and Oyo in terms of mobilisation remains shaky especially with the resurgence of Yoruba nationalistic feelings occasioned by increasing activism in separate nation for the Yoruba.
The same applies to Osinbajo who have also been playing political correctness by his statements pushing for unity of the country.
Above all,the unseen body language of President Buhari on where his preference on loyalty lies between power shift to the South and retention in the North on one hand and his choice between the two clear contenders for his seat among the two leading politicians will determine the shape of things in the race towards 2023.
For now, it is deft political moves and calculation on both camps of Tinubu and Osinbajo!
