Exclusive interview: APC may disintegrate, Don warns

…Says there may be exodus back to PDP, citing Atiku factor

By Tunde Abatan

As a senior lecturer in political science after a stint with journalism for years, he has seen both the newsroom, classroom. In the field of practical politics he has seen the players at close quarters  having served as a Special Adviser on strategy to a sitting governor at the return of democracy in 1999.

Since then, he has contributed not only to make the nation’s political debate robust and with deep intellectualism, Dapo Thomas, a doctorate holder in political science believes that the country has not made any remarkable progress in deepening democracy due to the characters of the major players at all levels due to what he described as the very abysmal and unrepentant attitude of the politicians and office holders at all levels.

He speaks on this, the rot in the education system and the growing insecurity in the land in this on line interview with Newdawnngr.com

Excerpts:

Would you say that Nigeria as it is today, has made any remarkable progress in deepening democracy since 1999?

 Let me start by saying yes. This may be controversial but unfortunately,  that is the reality. My saying yes is dependent on the extant reality, which has made it impossible for the military to return to power. When you look at our history, this is about the longest period that democracy has survived in the country. Immediately after Independence in 1960, we all thought that there was going to be an enduring democratic system not knowing that the military were just waiting for the colonizers to quit before they struck. Under colonialism, coup d’etat was an anathema. The colonial structure did not provide any form of incentive for military governance.

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Besides, the military was not totally formated for any kind of intervention in local politics under colonialism. But six years after Independence, the military, with no experience in governance, decided to terminate the Balewa administration adducing very illogical reasons to justify their intervention. I ask, what experience did they have in governance at that time, even at any point in time, to determine maladministration or bad governance? The truth was that they were mere opportunists who leveraged on arms advantage to terminate lives and governments. So, the taste of democracy lasted for only six years. After that, from 1966 to 1975, we had the Gowon administration, which lasted for nine years. In July 1975, another military succeeded the Gowon’s government. This was the Murtala/Obasanjo adminstration. This government took us to the second Republic, which lasted only four years. The third Republic was to be in 1991 but Babangida came up with an ingenious combo, more or less, a diarchy, which was on till 1993.

Between 1993 and 1999, it was a military show all the way. The Shonekan government, as far as I am concerned, does not possess any credentials that are of value to the nation’s history. It was the first amorphous governmental arrangement that has no precedent or antecedent in any books on political science. The Interim National Government was a magical concoction by men whose greed for power was of eternal desperation. Therefore, the Third Republic was a non-existent reality because it was a systemic hallucination.

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      Realistically therefore, between 1960 and 1999 (a period of 39 years), democracy lasted for only 10 years while the military reigned supreme for 29 years. But since 1999 when the Abubakar Administration “dashed” us democracy, there has been no military encroachment. This shows that democracy has deepened structurally not courtesy of the politicians (because I don’t think the politicians have learnt their lesson) but courtesy of international zero-tolerance  for military interventions in any part of the World.

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        The second leg of the question requires no thorough diagnosis. In terms of operational assessment, we have not really made any remarkable progress in deepening democracy. The attitude and performance of our politicians have been very abysmal and unrepentant. Ordinarily, what we can use as the logical index of progress in our democracy is development. But instead of experiencing development, we keep sinking deeper and deeper into a seemingly irrecoverable underdevelopment. Our infrastructural investment is appalling, our electoral system is sickening, our governance is amateurish, our unity is in tatters, our justice system is disgraceful, our health system is on the edge of a precipice, our leadership is rubbish, our constitution is shaming, our existence as a nation is shaky while our existence as citizens is plaintive. There is no need for any further elaboration. Let me just summarize: Democracy in anywhere it is being practised must elicit excitement and joy. But in the Nigerian context, possibly because of the strange characters we have in the system, democracy has only provoked dramatic sadism in our polity and a permanent forfeiture of existential euphoria.

In your view has the political parties made any difference in the polity especially with political defections arising from party primaries?

Let me tell you straight that the political parties we have in Nigeria are products of democratic aberrations. The parties we have now do not represent any orthodox political or ideological character .The parties lack procedural mechanisms. Political parties are supposed to be generated, formed, established or institutionalised via democratic mechanisms and the collective resolution of like-minded citizens. At the various levels of political congregation, in our own case, let’s say, local government level, state level and national level, there must be a kind of bonding among people who share the same ideological beliefs,  political idealism and social orientation.  These three elements  are essential to the vision of the party. The ideology of the party and the orientation of its leadership are going to be the driving force behind the vision of the party for natural and national development.

But what we have today are parties without vision or political objective. This visionlessness of the parties, especially the two dominant parties, PDP and APC, is what is responsible for the fluidity and elasticity in the membership structure. In a saner and a more civilized society where political parties are established on emblematic idealism, and institutional political philosophies, these kinds of ludicrous defections and “chop chop” mobility can never happen. When did you ever hear of defections of major political players from one party to the other in Germany, US, Britain and France? Let me tell you, for as long as this kind of scandalous practice and attitude continue among major political parties and key political players, we can never develop any noble political culture nor can we achieve any viable democratic system. The present political system is not just a mockery of democracy but a grandiose template for witching democracy. A nation derives strength for its stability from the depth and solidity of its political and democratic values, which serve as the hallmark of its advancement and progress as a strong nation. But in Nigeria, what we have is a systematic devaluation of these values in our polity. A nation where a politician sleeps as a member of All Progressives Congress (APC) and wakes up the following day as a member of People’s Democratic Party (PDP) is a classical testament to political infidelity.

With the way things are now can the APC survive the present schism?

Considering the level of political prostitution and degree of corruption in our polity, I do not want to engage in any emphatic or prophetic enterprise. However, let me talk theoretically as a political scientist. Though, events are still unfolding, I envisage a scenario where the party will disintegrate going by  the intensity with which the various factions within the party are desperately pursuing their 2023 agenda. I don’t foresee a kind of disintegration that will lead to the formation of another party but a kind of escalation that will force some of the “aliens” within the APC back to the PDP. Don’t forget that some of these people came from the PDP and like I said earlier, the fluidity in the membership structures of the two parties will create a convenient re-absorption ritual for the political fugitives who came from the PDP to the APC. The defection of Obaseki from APC to PDP may be an ominous illustration of a massive elite defection from  APC to PDP when things go awry.

 I also foresee the Atiku factor playing a critical role in this political drama. Since Atiku is still religiously committed to his presidential ambition, most of his guys who defected to APC may return to PDP on terms and conditions acceptable to the “fugitives”. Predictably, this  movement and return to their natural political habitat may not happen anytime soon. There is likely to be technical and tactical delay as a mark of respect for President Buhari who is a rallying factor for the assorted politicians congregating in APC at the moment.  This is one scenario.

The second scenario may evolve in the process of  reconstituting the  Party’s NEC and NWC at the next Convention.  The first thing that will happen is that the “aliens” plus some of their new APC “friends” will make attempt to snatch the main structure of the party from the “original owners” led by Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu. Depending on the fortification the “indigenes” have done to the structure of the party, the soul of the party will be difficult to destroy. If the “aliens” and their “new friends” in APC fail in this endeavor, they would have succeeded in weakening the APC considerably. The major task of the “original owners” will now be how to rebuild the party and cleanse it of all perfidious elements and profaning insiders.

Finally, I doubt very strongly if there can be an amicable resolution or settlement of the variegated acrimonies within the party. And the reason for this  is that Nigerian politicians are very predictable when it comes to the fulfillment of their political ambitions. They pursue their political ambitions with unrelenting desperation. Nothing could be as complex as a situation that makes a man to be willing to sacrifice anything for the realization and attainment of power. The kind of acerbity in APC today among the principal actors is such that none of the actors is ready to sacrifice his ambition for peace.

Would you say the FG has done enough to solve the security crisis especially with the situation in the North east and North Central parts of the country?

This is one area where the Buhari administration

has failed woefully.  Most of the people who voted “Sai Baba” in 2015 and 2019 did so thinking that with his military background and training, he would be able to find solution to the rampaging Boko Haram. But people are totally disappointed and disillusioned about the capacity of the administration to resolve the lingering security issues in the country. Immediately Buhari became the president, we were all thinking there would be de-escalation of hostilities in the North especially in the Northeast. But what do we have today? We have a complete escalation of security crisis in most parts of the country with additional challenges in the spate of kidnappings, banditry, the herdsmen saga, armed robberies, rapes, political killings and other crimes of local character all over the country. Unequivocally, I will say that in Nigeria today, we are faced with a tragic collapse of security architecture. There is a comprehensive and  systemic failure in our security policy which creates the impression that both the government and the ruling party have no security typology that can frontally address and arrest the declining security infrastructure in the country. I must let you know that the kind of integrated system and strategic coordination which should exist among the various security agencies are lacking. What we have today is a loose security arrangement which leaves the various security agencies to work at cross purposes with each of them pursuing its own security plan without coordinate partnership with other sister agencies. The recent indictment and no-confidence vote passed on the service chiefs by the president is an indication of the strategic failure I am talking about. This is what a nation experiences when it politicizes appointments of security chiefs, release of security funds, security monitoring and operational postings.

 I must say that for the government to contain the surging crime rates in the country, there is need for cohesion among the security agencies; the postings of military personnel to the battle fronts should be de-politicised; there should be a monitoring team to assess the activities and performance of the troops at the battle fronts; the security structure at the state level should further be enhanced; local policing to be intensified. In all, troops should be equipped with sophisticated weapons that can match what is in the possession of the terrorists and the bandits. The government needs to boost the morale of its troops by ensuring prompt payment of allowances and salaries to prevent or reduce the incidence of AWOL by its soldiers. The attitude of the presidency to security issues must change. For a nation that is going through numerous security challenges, the presidency has to assure the citizens through words and actions that it does not joke with the security of its citizens.

Regular meetings between the president and the service chiefs on security issues as well as prompt press statements on the outcome of such meetings need to be facilitated and stimulated. The citizens may not be expecting any kind of magical solution to the security crises all over the country but it is the responsibility of the government to demonstrate to the citizens that it has the capacity to manage, resolve and end all security challenges facing the nation.

In view of the COVID pandemic and the disruption of the academic calendar would you advice federal government on the need to use the opportunity to overhaul our educational system?

Overhauling the educational system in the country will require a comprehensive and holistic approach:  Education Summit.  This will take a critical look at the nation’s education policy to see if it is capable of reversing the tragedy that has befallen the sector. We have been postponing this exercise for so many years now as if we can avoid it. The truth is that the educational system has collapsed completely. It needs overhauling. It needs a rebirth. The public schools from primary to tertiary levels have lost it completely. What we have is a “Building system” not a “policy system”. You would have noticed that what all the states across the country do is to re-build the structure of the schools, as if that is the most crucial problem of education. Agreed that student need to study under conducive atmosphere but the policy should take priority over the building. The policy gives a direction to what happens within the building while the building just provides shelter for the students and also makes learning attractive to them. It is therefore important that a symbiotic correlation must exist between the policy and the physical structures. If you keep the children in the finest buildings and there is no policy to drive what they do within the building, they are not likely to achieve much.  For instance, the 6-3-3-4 policy needs to be re-defined or reviewed. When we started it, I thought it was a revolutionary policy that will address the technical, vocational and technological aspects of our education. But what I see now is just a policy that is devoid of reality and practicality. Students who fail to pass their JSS3 exams are supposed to be re-evaluated for technical and vocational competency. But now, emphasis has shifted to automatic promotion to SS1. The opportunity for a technical or vocational knowledge no longer exists because the child’s attention is now focused on JAMB. But you cannot blame the schools for this development. Where are the technical schools, vocational centers and polytechnics that are meant to perform this function? They are either defunct, destroyed, or non-existent. How many of these technical schools,  vocational centers and polytechnics are being funded by state and federal governments.?  So, only an  education summit can address this policy malady holistically. Don’t forget that our universities are experiencing a similar systemic decline. In our days, you had a one-man room, two-man room, three-man room or at best, a four- man room with one or two “pirates” sleeping on the floor. But these pirates were unofficial members of the room. If you thought that it was bad then, now it is horrible. You have 10-man room, 15-man room, 20-man room. And all these ridiculous allocations are official. The decay in the educational system is beyond human comprehension. Corruption has also found its way to the university system with managements engaging in contract splitting, abandoned projects, ghost-workers, budget-padding, funds misapplication, misappropriation, and “intellectual stealing”, the kind of stealing that you will do that it will take forensic experts and mathematicians to unravel. Our nation and our leaders need special deliverance.

What is the way out to resolve the lingering crisis between FG and ASUU on the IPPS?

Integrated Payroll and Personal Information System (IPPIS)

I think ASUU has accepted the fact that the government reserves the right to design a system or policy that is convenient for it if it suspects that some people within the University system are manipulating figures that keep bloating its wage bill year in, year out. Yes, there will be teething problems which I think the government is willing to address. I read recently in the newspapers where the Labour Minister, Chris Ngige was directing all the University Bursars to collate the challenges they encountered while using the IPPIS to pay salaries for the months of February, March, April and May. I do not think that we need a national strike to resolve this. We lecturers should avoid a situation whereby we will lose the sympathy or the remaining goodwill that we have left with the members of the public. This should be a straight forward issue to resolve if there are no underlying motives behind our opposition. That is my candid view. If I have a company, and I suspect that my account department is manipulating salary figures, I have the sole responsibility to design a pay system to halt the pranks. If there are problems in the course of implementing this system, then I will sit with the workers to discuss the teething issues. That is all. This should not result into a national strike as far as I am concerned.

In what ways could the growing incidence of Rape in the society be curbed?

The issue of rape is not something to be taken lightly. It’s one that needs to be discussed with all  the strategic parties involved- the parents, the children/youth, teachers in the schools, religious leaders, judiciary , media and the public at large .Taking them one after the other,  proper sensitization of the damage rape can cause needs to be assimilated by all these strategic stakeholders.

 Parents need to know that their children/wards especially those of this generation are more inquisitive about happenings around them . They need to have it in mind that Sex education needs to be taught at the early stages. This shouldn’t just be left for the mothers only but should be a joint responsibility between  parents, teachers and the school. The female child should be taught how to sit in public right from their prime age,  appropriate clothes to wear, avoiding late night movements etc. while the male child needs to know that being a perfect gentleman is not just limited to opening car doors for the female but should know when NO means NO. He should know that even if a girl doesn’t dress appropriately it is not an incentive  for rape.

Parents need to be careful when leaving their wards especially their young girls in the care of nannies and relatives whether nuclear or extended. While majority of rapists are young men in their 20s and 30s there has been a steady increase of cases of older men who have stooped so low in this debasing and heinous crime. These include uncles, priests, brothers, and worst of all fathers amongst others. When they are caught, their cliché line is “it’s the work of the devil”.  The parents also need to pay attention to the facial expressions and body language of their children to decipher any unstated and hidden communication.

Because children spend most of their time in school environment, responsibility is placed on Teachers and Lecturers to inculcate in them moral values alongside impacting knowledge. They should see themselves as playing the role of parents and should not take advantage of the younger ones who have been entrusted under their tutelage

Religious leaders should enunciate vehemently the ills of social vices especially rape and point out the spiritual repercussions of such acts

 The judiciary should see to the speedy dispensation of justice and the implementation of existing legislation on the subject matter without fear or favour

The various accusations against people, especially popular figures  need to be addressed as this delay makes it difficult  to take seriously the cases of real victims who have shunned the  likely stigma to come out publicly to narrate  their experiences.

 In all, rape shouldn’t be used as a tool of vengeance, victims shouldn’t be hushed but given room to speak up. By way of extension, let me just add that our social values need to be reinforced. The rate at which the youths engage in social vices these days should be of concern to those of us who are parents. Their desperation for wealth is unimaginable. That is why you find them doing yahoo yahoo. Some of them are even proud to be called “yahoo boys”. In the course of operating as “Bigz Boyz”, they involve themselves in occultic and fetish practices to fortify themselves against any arrest, exposure or disclosure. Some of these boys are between 16 and 25 and above. Some of the reasons for their involvement in such fraudulent acts are to attract or lure girls for sexual activities. Their apartments become ready abattoir for the slaughter of willing and unwilling young girls. So, I am saying parents need to do some re-inventing in the training of their children to avoid senseless and unnecessary sexual involvement with bad boys of the internet. Girls should as much as possible avoid visiting guys who stay in multiple units in strange apartments. As for the penalty for offenders, I leave that to the lawmakers and our justice system to determine ,to avoid being hypothetical with the lives of those who may be innocent or mere accessories to the crime.

What do you make of the raging controversy in the APC vis a vis dissolution of NWC and alleged frosty relationship between Tinubu and President Buhari?

I want to confess that this is the most progressive action ever taken by the President. It may not be popular with everybody in the party but I want to say that I support this action wholeheartedly. If this action was not taken, the party was likely to disintegrate as a result of intense polarization and contamination. The contending forces were only interested in how to manipulate the party to accommodate their 2023 agenda. I recognize the fact that within the party there are some principal figures whose contributions and sacrifices to the formation, stability and sustainability of the party are enormous. But at this point, the stability of the party was of fundamental significance than the machinations of “principalities”. Whether people agree with me or not, the APC has shown itself to be a more organized and more cohesive party than the PDP. In the APC, you can streamline the leadership structure to Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, President Muhammadu Buhari, Chief Bisi Akande and Dr Ogbonnaya Onu. As far as I am concerned, and as far as I know, these are the major founders of the APC. Their role in the formation of the party is in the order that I have presented them. But as expected in any democratic or political associations/ organizations, there will be converging interests and divergent influences. There was some discipline and cohesion in the party until the celebrated “migration” of the Amechi/Saraki and co. from the PDP to the APC. The moment these people infiltrated the party, the APC became a fractured party. How? Most of the migrants were governors. As governors of their respective states, they have seen themselves as leaders of their people discountenancing the fact that most of them were inconsequential entities before they were installed by their godfathers. This migration led to two serious developments: one, these governors not only disrespected their natural political fathers or leaders in their states, they perfidiously hijacked the political structures from their erstwhile leaders. Two, on getting to APC, some of the APC governors who had been “good boys” before, especially those from the South west, turned to rebels and renegades having been influenced by their PDP counterparts. I want to reveal to you, that before the coming of these PDP governors into APC, nobody ever questioned the leadership status of both Tinubu and Akande as national leaders of the party. But the moment these PDP governors came, this became a major issue within the party. This was a monumental mistake by these two “national leaders”. Of the four major founders, Buhari became the president while Onu became Minister of Science and Technology. Enjoying the epithet “national leaders”, Tinubu and Akande never envisaged that a time will come that some mischievous people would question the constitutionality of their tittle and their relevance in the party. Initially when this was raised, the two party leaders never took it serious until they stopped being invited to strategic meetings of the party by Chief Odigie Oyegun who was elevated to the throne by Tinubu. When the insults were getting rather unbearable, Akande withdrew from active participation but Tinubu persisted because as at that time, he was still enjoying the unflinching support of Rauf Aregbesola, Abiola Ajimobi and cosmetically, that of Kayode Fayemi, Babatunde Fashola and Ibikunle Amosun. Now this is where I am going. With the advertised disagreement between Asiwaju Tinubu and Aregbesola; the death of Abiola Ajimobi; the open umbrage between Tinubu and Fayemi and Amosun and of course, the precarious stance of Babatunde Fashola, and the termination of Oshiomole’s NWC, it will look as if Tinubu was more hit by Buhari’s action. I don’t think I want to subscribe to that view. The game is still on. First, nobody is sure of Buhari’s stance on Tinubu. Yes, we read so many gossips and garbage in the social media but I think the relationship between these two people is deeper than what we think. For now, I doubt if Buhari has anybody in mind as his successor apart from Tinubu.  Definitely, the governors will come up with their own choice but will he be acceptable to Buhari? Two, will the party eventually zone the Presidency to the North again, or to the South west? If it eventually zones it to the South West, who in the South West possesses Tinubu’s political clout and mobilization machinery? However, between Tinubu and the governors, the person who becomes the presidential candidate of the party will be determined by Buhari who seems to have taken effective control of the party since he dissolved the National Working Committee (NWC).

Is the Presidential System Too Expensive?

This is not a Yes or No answer. There are those who believe that it is and there are those who think it is not. First, those who think it is expensive look at the humongous numbers of representations at the various tiers of government ; local government executive and its legislature; state executive and its legislature and the Presidency and the National Assembly. This is at the governmental level. At the Party level you start from Ward Exco, to Local Government Exco, to State and national executives. Then you look at the various appointments at these three levels: ministers, commissioners, supervisory councilors, boards, etc. For sure all these people are entitled to statutory remunerations like salaries and allowances.  I have seen the basic salaries of most of these elected and appointed officials, there is nothing so alarming about them. But the major problem is with the allowances. Though the Revenue Mobilisation Allocation and Fiscal Commission (RMAFC) attempts to structure the allowances along the extant service structure, the loophole for inventing outrageous allowances is in the clause “To be Provided.” The Commission gives the discretion to determine certain allowances to the beneficiaries themselves. Let me just cite one example and you will understand my point. For instance, the controversial “Constituency Allowance”, RMAFC fails to specify how much this should be and this makes it possible for the lawmakers across board to allocate to themselves  ridiculous, strange and outrageous millions of Naira. I understand that one senator can collect N500 million, while another can collect N 20million or N100 million. In the House of Representatives, it is like that too. The same way it is at the various State Houses of Assembly and Local Government Legislative Councils. It is this lacuna  that has made this possible. This is the reason why some feel it is too expensive. Besides, nobody at the various constituencies where these lawmakers claim they are doing the projects ever sees or notices any viable projects going on. Can you imagine a legislator buying ropes for his constituents to tie their goats and calling that nonsense  constituency  “project”? Then the degree of corruption that goes on in government is very intriguing. The people get to know about all these fraudulent activities and they cry out.

Those who do not subscribe to the view that the Presidential System is expensive hinge their position on the fact that there was nothing fantastic about the Parliamentary System which failed us in the First Republic and created the opportunity for the first military intervention in this country. Let me just conclude that there is no political  system or model that Nigerians cannot abuse. Everything is about our willingness, honesty, determination, collective resolution and discipline. If we want this present system to succeed, we can develop the capacity to make it work. In any society where there is unquenchable appetite for material acquisition and cultural prebendalism, there is bound to be systemic abuse. If we take the fight against corruption seriously, reduce considerably the ‘sinful’ allowances our government and Legislative officials collect, reinvent our democratic values and inject new orientation into our polity, I believe the system which is widely seen as expensive now will ultimately become attractive.